Ernie Tedeschi on Output Gaps, Labor Markets, and the State of the Economy

Check out David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus for a special 500th episode post! George Hall is a professor of economics at Brandeis University and formerly worked as an economist at the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank. George returns to the show to discuss the current fiscal status of the US, how the Big Beautiful Bill will impact the fiscal outlook going forward, the history of running deficits in the US, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on June 24th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow George on X: @George_J_Hall Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps 00:00:00 - Bumper 00:00:29 - Intro 00:01:55 - Current US Fiscal Status 00:05:45 - What Is Inflation? 00:10:18 - Fiscal Consequences of the US War with COVID 00:23:21 - World War COVID 00:25:05 - Before and After War 00:34:02 - Financing with Inflation 00:38:47 - World War II Period vs. Today 00:38:47 - World War II Period vs. Today 00:44:19 - Who Bears the Fed's Losses? 00:47:14 - How to Foot the Big, Beautiful Bill 00:52:10 - Outro

21 Jul 52min

Ben Harris served in numerous high-ranking roles as a public sector economist and is now the vice president and director of economic studies at the Brooking Institution. In Ben's first appearance on the show, he discusses the fiscal health of the US government, including the rising primary deficient, the impact of the Big Beautiful Bill, the proposition of stablecoins and AI as a solution to our debt, his love of basketball and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on June 18th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Ben on X: @econ_harris Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:02:01 - Ben's Career 00:05:18 - Fiscal Health of the United States 00:07:57 - Big Beautiful Bill 00:12:15 - Debts and Deficits 00:14:47 - Costs and Risks of the Rising US Debt 00:37:05 - Stablecoins as a Potential Solution to US Debt 00:41:49 - Debt Ceiling 00:50:02 - AI and the Economy 00:54:58 - Outro

14 Jul 55min

Luis Garicano is a former member of the European Parliament and a professor at the London School of Economics. In Luis's first appearance on the show he discusses his new book, Crisis Cycle: Challenges, Evolution, and the future of the Euro, the ever-changing landscape of digital money, his suggested reforms to the Euro, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on June 18th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Luis on X: @lugaricano Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:00:55 - Future of Money 00:08:46 - Bank Regulation 00:12:51 - Stablecoins 00:23:35 - Crisis Cycle 00:56:05 - Outro

7 Jul 56min

Mark Blyth is a professor of international economics at Brown University. In Mark's first appearance on the show, he discusses his new book Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers, the concept of angrynomics, a new way to look at price controls, demographic decline, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on June 4th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Mark on X: @MkBlyth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:00:50 - Angrynomics 00:03:56 - Motivation for 'Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers' 00:08:27 - Five Things They Don't Tell You About Inflation 00:14:32 - Good, Bad, and Ugly Inflation 00:18:14 - Interest Rates and Inflation 00:21:33 - Price Controls 00:26:13 - Stories About Inflation 00:35:03 - Hyperinflation 00:42:24 - Pandemic Inflation 00:58:00 - Disinflation, China, and Demographic Decline 01:00:30 - Recommendations for Policymakers 01:02:00 - Outro

30 Jun 1h 2min

Sam Schulhofer-Wohl is a senior vice president and the senior advisor to President Lorie Logan of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Sam returns to the show to discuss recent macroeconomic conferences in the context of changes in the Treasury market and with central bank operating systems around the globe. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on May 27th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps 00:00:00 - Bumper 00:00:20 - Intro 00:01:19 - Monetary Policy Conferences 00:03:15 - Role of Nonbank Institutions in the Treasury and Money Markets 00:07:48 - Central Clearing 00:33:19 - Operating Systems in Central Banks 00:49:52 - Outro

23 Jun 50min

Andy Levin is an advisor to many central banks around the world and professor of economics at Dartmouth College. Andy returns to the show for a special bonus episode to discuss his pervious appearance and accompanying policy brief where he calls for an independent inspector general at the Federal Reserve. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on June 10th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:48) – Federal Reserve and an Independent Inspector General (00:06:50) – Palace of Versailles on the Mall (00:16:20) – Accountability of the Fed (00:19:21) – Outro

19 Jun 20min

Sign up for the Bitcoin Policy Summit with our special Macro Musings Discount Code! Matthew Pines is the executive director of the Bitcoin Policy institute. Matthew returns to the show to discuss the future of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, US stablecoin regulation, geopolitics under Trump, monetary policy at the Fed, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on May 16th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Matthew Pines on X: @Matthew_Pines Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:00:54 - Matthew's Career Path and BPI 00:03:28 - Bitcoin and National Security 00:06:41 - Bitcoin Policy Summit 00:09:24 - State of Crypto Legislation 00:13:13 - Geoeconomics 00:24:17 - The Dollar's Future 00:31:56 - Stablecoin Use Cases 00:39:29 - Future of Money 00:45:50 - Future of Monetary Policy 00:52:27 - Outro

16 Jun 53min

Peter Conti-Brown is a historian and legal scholar of the Federal Reserve System, and an associate professor at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Sean Vanatta is a senior lecturer in financial history and policy at the University of Glasgow. Peter and Sean join the show to discuss their new book titled: Private Finance, Public Power: A History of Bank Supervision in America, as well as how powerlifting can be analogized in macroeconomics, and the implications of Trump v. Wilcox. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on May 27th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:02:02 - Powerlifting 00:06:17 - Trump v. Wilcox 00:12:27 - Private Finance, Public Power 00:15:18 - Supervision vs. Regulation 00:22:52 - Banking in the Early Republic 00:36:10 - Consolidation of Regulators 00:41:06 - Focus of the Fed 00:45:00 - The Great Depression 00:56:10 - When to Let a Bank Fail 01:02:47 - Outro

9 Jun 1h 3min