20VC: Semil Shah on How To Raise An Institutional Venture Fund, Why LPs Mostly Have Reserve Allocation Theory Wrong & Why IPOs and Acquisitions Are Severely Constrained

20VC: Semil Shah on How To Raise An Institutional Venture Fund, Why LPs Mostly Have Reserve Allocation Theory Wrong & Why IPOs and Acquisitions Are Severely Constrained

Semil Shah is the founder of Haystack, an early stage investment firm now investing out of it’s fourth fund, with previous investments in the likes of Instacart, DoorDash, Giphy, OpenDoor & Managed by Q. Semil is also a Venture Partner @ GGV Capital, one of the leading multi-stage funds and in the past he has also been a consultant to the likes of Kleiner Perkins, DFJ, General Catalyst and more. If that was not enough, Shah also has an extensive career in media having been a contributor for both TechCrunch and the Harvard Business Review in the past. Due to all of this, Shah is known for being on the speed dial of some of the industry’s most respected VCs with the likes of Marc Andreessen naming him one of his ’55 Unknown Rockstars in Tech’.

In Today’s Episode You Will Learn:

1.) How Semil made the transition from the world of writing to investing alongside some of the best in venture with Haystack?

2.) Why do more and more managers want to introduce institutional capital into their LP base? What are the advantages? What are the drawbacks? Where does Semil see most managers going wrong when pursuing institutional capital for the first time?

3.) What does Semil mean when he states the importance of "pre-marketing"? How open is one in these pre-discussions with potential LPs? What is the right amount of time to be pre-marketing for? How does Semil determine whether to adopt a piece of LP advice and when not to?

4.) In the raising process, why does Semil never like to the use the deck when meeting in person? What core elements of the presentation did LPs always hone in on? What tips does Semil have to potential managers to ensure they can pitch at any time, not just the boardroom?

5.) How has moving from non-institutional to institutional fund, changed how Semil thinks about reserve allocation? Why does Semil believe that the majority of LPs have a wrong thesis to reserve allocation?

6.) Why does Semil believe the VC business model is severely constrained in terms of exits through IPO and acquisition? What does this mean for the use of secondaries? How will managers need to incorporate this into their strategy?

Items Mentioned In Today’s Show:

Semil’s Fave Blog: AVC

Semil’s Most Recent Investment: Ironclad

As always you can follow Harry, The Twenty Minute VC and Semil on Twitter here!

Likewise, you can follow Harry on Snapchat here for mojito madness and all things 20VC.

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20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Round | Klarna's IPO Broken Down | Inside a16z's 72 Deal Seed Investment Machine | Martin Casado: Is Consensus Investing the Only Game | Why Satya is Chatting S*** on SaaS Apps Disappearing featuring Marc Benioff

20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Round | Klarna's IPO Broken Down | Inside a16z's 72 Deal Seed Investment Machine | Martin Casado: Is Consensus Investing the Only Game | Why Satya is Chatting S*** on SaaS Apps Disappearing featuring Marc Benioff

AGENDA: ​​00:00 – Marc Benioff vs Snowflake, Databricks & Palantir: Who Wins the Data Cloud War? 05:10 – Does Benioff Feel The Need to Buy AI Talent Like Zuck Is? 09:00 – What Salesforce has Learned From Palantir on Forward Deployed Engineers? 18:00 – Will SaaS apps disappear in an AI world? Why Satya is Chatting S*** 23:40 – Are SDRs really screwed by AI… or just evolving? 26:10 – Benioff on Who Wins: OpenAI or Anthropic? 30:00 – Nat Friedman reports to Alex Wang: Genius move or career downgrade? 34:00 – Anthropic’s $10B round: Have we hit peak AI hype? 47:00 – Klarna’s wild ride: From $45B to $6B to IPO at $15B 55:00 – Inside a16z’s seed machine: 72 bets vs Sequoia’s 27 57:45 – Martìn Casado: Is consensus investing dangerous—or the only game? 01:05:00 – The big lesson: consensus, contrarian, and why investing is harder than ever

28 Aug 1h 11min

20VC: Do Margins Matter in AI? | Is Defensibility Gone For Good? | Is Vertical SaaS Dead in a World of AI | What SaaS Rules Are BS and No Longer Apply in a World of AI | The Future of Venture: Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS with Byron Deeter

20VC: Do Margins Matter in AI? | Is Defensibility Gone For Good? | Is Vertical SaaS Dead in a World of AI | What SaaS Rules Are BS and No Longer Apply in a World of AI | The Future of Venture: Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS with Byron Deeter

Byron Deeter is a Partner at Bessemer Venture Partners, and one of the most renowned SaaS investors. Byron has led 19 unicorn investments, including IPO successes like ServiceTitan, Procore, Twilio, Box, Gainsight, Intercom, DocuSign, SendGrid. His portfolio includes eight companies that have gone public. Insane.  Agenda: 00:00 – Why are the stakes in AI higher than ever before? 05:20 – Is defensibility in AI gone for good? 07:40 – Do margins even matter when backing the next Anthropic or Perplexity? 09:50 – How does Byron think about future dilution when investing in AI today? 12:10 – With 40% of venture money going to 10 deals, is there any point investing elsewhere? 13:40 – Is vertical SaaS dead? Is there any point when the large players can own it? 18:00 – Will AI shift from the tech budget to the human labor budget and unlock trillions? 21:10 – Are we entering the era of billion-dollar businesses built by 10 people? 25:20 – Is treble-treble-double-double now too slow for AI companies? 33:10 – In today’s AI gold rush, is it better to scream the loudest or just build the best product? 41:10 – What specific growth rates are best in class, good and not good enough today?  55:00 – Is venture now just a game of scale — Chanel vs. Walmart?

25 Aug 1h 21min

20VC: Databricks at $100BN | Chamath’s SPAC Revival: Peak Mania? | OpenAI Staff Cash Out Billions & Sam Altman Will Spend Trillions | CoreWeave’s $11B Debt Bet & Nubank’s $2.5B Profit Shocker

20VC: Databricks at $100BN | Chamath’s SPAC Revival: Peak Mania? | OpenAI Staff Cash Out Billions & Sam Altman Will Spend Trillions | CoreWeave’s $11B Debt Bet & Nubank’s $2.5B Profit Shocker

Agenda: 00:00 – Databricks hits $100B: Bubble or just the beginning? 03:15 – Is Databricks actually undervalued at 25x revenue? 07:40 – Are we on the verge of the biggest IPO wave ever? 11:30 – Can Andreessen’s Databricks bet return $30B+? 18:10 – Who really gets rich when mega-unicorns IPO? 19:30 – Is the return of Chamath’s SPACs the ultimate bubble signal? 28:00 – Should OpenAI staff be cashing out billions in secondaries? 33:30 – Founder raises $130M… then walks away. Is this the new normal? 36:30 – Nubank’s $2.5B profit: The best FinTech in the world? 48:00 – On Running at $15B: Can consumer brands still be VC-backed rockets? 52:00 – CoreWeave takes on $11B in debt: smart bet or ticking time bomb? 1:11:00 – Will AI spend really hit trillions—or is it all hype?

21 Aug 1h 27min

20VC: Lovable CEO Anton Osika on $120M in ARR in 7 Months | The Honest Truth About Defensibility and Unit Economics for AI Startups | The State of Foundation Models: Long Grok, Short OpenAI, Why | Replit vs Lovable vs Bolt: What Happens

20VC: Lovable CEO Anton Osika on $120M in ARR in 7 Months | The Honest Truth About Defensibility and Unit Economics for AI Startups | The State of Foundation Models: Long Grok, Short OpenAI, Why | Replit vs Lovable vs Bolt: What Happens

Anton Osika is the Co-Founder and CEO @ Lovable, the fastest growing company on the planet. In just 7 months, they have scaled from $0 to $120M in ARR. They have raised over $200M in funding from some of the best including Accel, Creandum and 20VC. Their latest round priced the company at a whopping $2BN.  Agenda for Today: 00:00 – Is AI an Arms Race… Or Just a Talent War? 03:45 – How Does Anton Compete with Zuck’s $100M Packages for Talent 07:30 – Founder Mode vs. Structure: Can Chaos Scale? 10:15 – The Brutal Truth About Defensibility in AI Startups 13:20 – Unit Economics: Are AI Companies Doomed to Bleed Cash? 17:00 – GPT-5: Game-Changer or Overhyped Disappointment? 20:10 – How Lovable Hit $100M ARR in Just 7 Months? 25:15 – Replit, Figma, Bolt: Which Competitor is the Best? 30:00 – The Security Bombshells No One Talks About 36:40 – Should Anyone Still Study Computer Science? 40:30 – Work-Life Balance Is Dead: Inside Anton’s 10x Culture 56:00 – OpenAI, Anthropic, or Grok: Who Wins the AI Wars?

18 Aug 1h 8min

20VC: 15 Term Sheets in 7 Days and Choosing Benchmark | Harvey vs Legora: Who Wins Legal and How to Play When You Have $600M Less Funding | Are AI Models Plateauing Today | Building a 9-9-6 Culture From Stockholm with Max Junestrand

20VC: 15 Term Sheets in 7 Days and Choosing Benchmark | Harvey vs Legora: Who Wins Legal and How to Play When You Have $600M Less Funding | Are AI Models Plateauing Today | Building a 9-9-6 Culture From Stockholm with Max Junestrand

Max Junestrand is the Co-Founder and CEO @ Legora, the collaborative AI powering the next generation of lawyers. Now this is an insane story for many reasons; first, Max turned down a multi-million dollar career in gaming to build Legora. Second, he has raised from the best of the best including Benchmark and IVP. Third, he has scaled the firm with 1/6th of the capital of his closest competitor, Harvey have raised a reported $800M while Legora have raised just $120M.  Agenda: 00:03 – From Pro Gamer to AI Founder: How World of Warcraft Shaped Max’s Mindset 04:58 – The $5–10M Gaming Career He Walked Away From 07:55 – Are AI Models Plateauing… or Just Getting Started? 10:02 – Swarms of LLMs: The 100x Cost Bet That Could Change Legal Forever 12:00 – Partnering With the Lawyers You’re “Killing” 15:00 – How He Cracked Sweden’s Hardest-to-Enter Law Firm 21:45 – The $500K Coffee That Saved the Company at YC 30:00 – Closing 15 Term Sheets in 7 Days – Why Benchmark Won 36:00 – Beating a $5BN Rival With a Fraction of the Funding 53:50 – Building a Cult Culture: The 9-9-6 Mentality in Europe

15 Aug 1h 20min

20VC: GPT5: Sam Altman's Masterplan or a Gift To Anthropic | Palantir & Shopify Crush Earnings | Monday & Datadog Perform But Hit Hard by Wall St | Should Perplexity Buy Chrome for $34.5BN |

20VC: GPT5: Sam Altman's Masterplan or a Gift To Anthropic | Palantir & Shopify Crush Earnings | Monday & Datadog Perform But Hit Hard by Wall St | Should Perplexity Buy Chrome for $34.5BN |

AGENDA: 00:04 – Was GPT-5 the Biggest AI Letdown Yet? 00:17 – Is OpenAI’s Real Target Anthropic’s $6B Revenue? 00:22 – Why Anthropic Might Secretly Be Worried 00:28 – The Hidden Business Strategy Behind OpenAI’s “Underwhelming” Launch 00:32 – Should Perplexity Really Try to Buy Chrome for $34.5B? 00:35 – The $3B N8N Deal: Genius Bet or Bubble FOMO? 00:38 – Why Datadog’s Best Quarter Ever Still Tanked the Stock 00:44 – Palantir’s 50% Growth at Scale – Can It Last? Is Palantir Overpriced? 00:53 – Shopify’s Ruthless Path to 91% Revenue Growth With 30% Fewer Staff 01:01 – Are Seed and Series A Valuations Now at Dangerous Highs? 01:06 – What Does The Highest Levels of Capital Concentration Mean For Early Stage Founders? 01:15 – Could Palantir Hit a $2 Trillion Market Cap by 2030?

14 Aug 1h 22min

20VC: Figma, Scale, Wiz: Inside Index's Decacorn Factory | Decision-Making, Investment Process, Biggest Lessons, Biggest Misses | Why Gross Margin is a Fallacy at Seed | Never Turn Down a Deal on Price with Martin Mignot, Partner @ Index Ventures

20VC: Figma, Scale, Wiz: Inside Index's Decacorn Factory | Decision-Making, Investment Process, Biggest Lessons, Biggest Misses | Why Gross Margin is a Fallacy at Seed | Never Turn Down a Deal on Price with Martin Mignot, Partner @ Index Ventures

Martin Mignot is a Partner at Index Ventures, the best-performing fund in the world right now. In the last three months, they have sold Wiz for $ 32 billion, sold Scale for $14.9 billion, and IPO'd Figma as the largest investor. In addition to this, they are the largest or second-largest shareholders in Roblox, Revolut, Adyen and Datadog.  Agenda for Today: 00:00 – Why Gross Margin is the Biggest Sin in the Early Days 04:50 – Why Most People Shouldn’t Become VCs 07:40 – Why it is BS to Suggest the Future of VC is Boutique vs Mega Fund 09:10 – Do Multi-Stage Funds Really Give a S*** About Seed 13:50 – The Founder Trait That Trumps Market Size Every Time 18:45 – How Spotify Still Haunts Index Ventures & What They Learn From It? 28:50 – The Brutal Truth About European vs. U.S. Founders 34:20 – The Case for a European AI Giant (and Who Might Build It) 40:50 – The Return of the 7-Day Founder Work Week 52:10 – Biggest Lessons from Leading Revolut’s Series A 56:40 – Betting Against Nick Storonsky? Don’t. 1:03:10 – The One Competitor Index Ventures Admires

11 Aug 1h 19min

20VC: The $BN Greenoaks Backed Protein Bar | Hitting $100M Revenues in David's First Year: Lessons & Mistakes | $0 to $600M: The Untold RXBAR Story | Product-Market-Fit, Pricing, Branding: What Every Founder Gets Wrong Today with Peter Rahal

20VC: The $BN Greenoaks Backed Protein Bar | Hitting $100M Revenues in David's First Year: Lessons & Mistakes | $0 to $600M: The Untold RXBAR Story | Product-Market-Fit, Pricing, Branding: What Every Founder Gets Wrong Today with Peter Rahal

Peter Rahal is the Co‑Founder & CEO of David Protein, the highest protein‑to‑calorie ratio for any protein bar on the market. Peter has raised over $85M from Greenoaks, Dr. Peter Attia and Dr. Andrew Huberman with the latest round valuing the company at $725 million. The company is poised for over $100 million in first‑year revenue. Formerly, Peter co‑founded RXBAR in his mom’s basement with a $10k start, growing it into a household brand and selling it to Kellogg for $600 million. poised for over $100 million first‑year revenue   Agenda for Today:  00:04 – The One Piece of Advice from My Father That Made $600M 00:07 – Selling Protein Bars from a CrossFit Gym to $2M in Year One 00:12 – Why Raising Money Early Would Have Killed RXBAR’s Success 00:15 – Product vs Brand: What Every Brand Gets Wrong Today 00:17 – Why Red Bull is the Best Brand in the World? What Can We Learn From It?  00:20 – Are Brands the New Religion? How Status and Community Really Work 00:27 – The Boiled Cod Stunt: Brilliant Marketing or Massive Waste of Time? 00:35 – Selling RXBAR for $600M: Inside the Decision and the TAM Ceiling 00:40 – $100M Overnight: What Really Changes When You Get Rich 00:44 – The Hidden Costs of Success: Health, Relationships and Obsession 00:47 – Why Peter Doesn’t Care What People Think… and Actually Likes Upsetting Them 00:53 – The $10B Plan for David: From Protein Bars to a Portfolio of Brands

8 Aug 1h 6min

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