Data Driven12 Aug 2025

Dr Mike Orkin on Blackjack, Lightning, and Apophenia: The Surprising Psychology of Probability

On this episode of Data Driven, we’re shuffling up some probability, statistics, and a bit of Las Vegas magic with Dr. Michael Orkin—a renowned statistician, data scientist, and former advisor to casino odds makers. Hosts Andy Leonard, Frank La Vigne, and BAILeY dig into the fascinating numbers behind games of chance, uncovering why the house almost always wins and how our brains are wired to find patterns—sometimes where none exist.

Whether you’re a data enthusiast, a casual gambler wondering why your lucky streak never lasts, or just curious about how randomness, probability, and big jackpots work, this episode has you covered. Dr. Orkin breaks down concepts like the house edge, expected value, card counting, the allure (and statistical pitfalls) of lottery tickets, and the psychology driving “hot” and “due” gambling strategies. Plus, he weighs in on lightning strikes, Black Swan events, correlation and causation, and the curious human habit of seeing connections in random outcomes.

So, get ready for a lively conversation that reminds us data is everywhere—especially where stakes are high and luck seems just out of reach. Whether you’re here for probability puns, real-world math, or the stories Vegas doesn’t want you to know, this is one episode you won’t want to miss!

Links

The Story of Chance https://amzn.to/45qOe8x

Dr Mike's Substack https://drmikeorkin.substack.com/

Moments

00:00 Casino House Edge Explained

08:54 "Random Chance and Unlikely Events"

12:03 Justifying Buying Lottery Tickets

16:58 "SBF: Crypto King Unraveled"

26:34 Lightning Strike Probability Calculation Issues

32:26 Average Beyond Desk Boundaries

33:26 "Defining Accident Prone"

39:31 Misjudging Odds with Normal Curve

45:50 Avoiding Lightning Strikes: Bay Area

55:11 Casino Mind Games Experience

56:20 Roulette Betting Strategies: Apophenia

01:03:33 "Dr. Orkin's Website & Substack"

01:07:19 "Probability and the House Edge"

Denne episoden er hentet fra en åpen RSS-feed og er ikke publisert av Podme. Den kan derfor inneholde annonser.

Episoder(300)

How Compliance Became Cool: Richa Kaul on Security, Privacy, and AI

Welcome back to "Data Driven," the podcast where we explore the cutting edge of data science, AI, and the rapidly evolving world of data governance.In this episode, we sit down with Richa Kaul, founde...

21 Sep 45min

Why Business Knowledge Beats Tool Complexity in the AI Era

Welcome back to Data Driven, the podcast where we dive deep into the evolving worlds of data science, business intelligence, and artificial intelligence. In this episode, host Frank La Vigne sits down...

16 Sep 54min

Bridging AI and Human Intelligence – Multicolor Lasers and the Future of Photonic Computing

Welcome to another episode of Impact Quantum, where we explore the cutting edge of quantum computing and emerging technologies reshaping our world.Today, co-hosts Frank La Vigne and Candace Gillhoolle...

15 Sep 54min

Digital Trust in Practice: Compliance, AI, and Human Factors with Sandeep Pauddar

In this episode, Frank La Vigne sits down with Sandeep Pauddar, Head of Digital Trust at DQS, to explore the fast-evolving world of digital trust, compliance, and data security. From the growing compl...

8 Sep 47min

AI Adoption in Power Plants and Beyond – Trends, Challenges, and ROI Insights

Welcome back to another episode of Data Driven! This time, hosts Andy Leonard and Frank La Vigne sit down with Jim Spignardo, Director of Cloud Strategy and AI Enablement at ProArch, to explore the tr...

1 Sep 59min

Building Trust in AI – Lawrence Snap on Hallucination Detection and the Future of TrustScale

In this episode, hosts Frank La Vigne and Andy Leonard sit down with Lawrence Snapp, CEO and board member of TrustScale, an innovative AI trust and verification platform. Together, they explore the cr...

27 Aug 53min

Numeracy, Probability, and Business – Embracing Randomness for Better Decisions

In this episode, host Andy Leonard sits down with Ilan Man, founder and CEO of Paradox Machines, a full-stack data and AI company based in Brooklyn. Ilan shares his fascinating journey from an actuari...

18 Aug 50min

Tackling Data Engineering Challenges with Autonomous AI Agents

In this episode, Frank La Vigne sits down with Pradnesh Patil, co-founder and CEO of Altima AI, to explore how AI is revolutionizing the world of data engineering. Together, they dive into the challen...

28 Jul 43min