DO 285 - AI and The 95% Extinction Threshold
Doomer Optimism21 Okt 2025

DO 285 - AI and The 95% Extinction Threshold

AI safety researcher Nate Soares explains why he believes there's at least a 95% chance that current AI development will lead to human extinction, and why we're accelerating toward that outcome. Soares, who has been working on AI alignment since 2012, breaks down the fundamental problem: we're building increasingly intelligent systems without any ability to control what they actually want or pursue.The conversation covers current AI behavior that wasn't programmed: threatening users, keeping psychotic people in delusional states, and repeatedly lying when caught. Soares explains why these aren't bugs to be fixed but symptoms of a deeper problem. We can't point AI systems at any specific goal, not even something simple like "make a diamond." Instead, we get systems with bizarre drives that are only distantly related to their training.Soares addresses the "racing China" argument and why it misunderstands the threat. He explains why AI engineers can build powerful systems without understanding what's actually happening inside them, and why this matters. Using examples from evolutionary biology, he shows why there's no reason to expect AI systems to develop human-like morality or values.The discussion covers why a catastrophic warning event probably won't help, what international coordination could look like, and why current safety efforts fall short of what's needed. Soares is direct about industry motivations, technical limitations, and the timeline we're facing.Nate Soares has been researching AI alignment and safety since 2012. He works at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), one of the pioneering organizations focused on ensuring advanced AI systems are aligned with human values.


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Episoder(302)

DO 295 - Navigating the Evolution of Meat Production with Greg Gunthorp & Nate

DO 295 - Navigating the Evolution of Meat Production with Greg Gunthorp & Nate

Surviving Consolidation, One Pig at a TimeGreg Gunthorp, a fourth-generation Indiana hog farmer, joins Nate for a wide-ranging conversation about survival, stubbornness, and adaptation in the American...

13 Jan 1h 40min

DO 294 - Rural Revival and the USDA with Nate and Jason Mauck

DO 294 - Rural Revival and the USDA with Nate and Jason Mauck

Nate sits down with Jason Mauck to discuss his hard-won experience running Munsee Meats, a small-scale meat processing operation in Indiana. What started as an opportunistic response to empty shelves ...

16 Des 20251h 16min

DO 293 - Antitrust Law, Beef Politics, and Actually Using Government Power

DO 293 - Antitrust Law, Beef Politics, and Actually Using Government Power

Antitrust attorney Basel Musharbash discusses recent political whiplash in beef markets and the broader question of how actually to enforce anti-monopoly law. The conversation covers why ranchers erup...

27 Nov 20251h 27min

DO 292 - Breaking the Beef Cartel: Mike Callicrate on Monopoly Power, Maker-Owned Markets, and the Fight for Rural America

DO 292 - Breaking the Beef Cartel: Mike Callicrate on Monopoly Power, Maker-Owned Markets, and the Fight for Rural America

Welcome to Beef Week! 🐄Nate sits down with rancher, entrepreneur, and farm advocate Mike Callicrate for a deep dive into the crisis facing America's cattle industry—and the path forward.Mike traces t...

25 Nov 20251h 45min

DO 291 - Building an Edible Perennial Nursery with Nick Wrenn of Living Soil Tree Farm

DO 291 - Building an Edible Perennial Nursery with Nick Wrenn of Living Soil Tree Farm

Building an Edible Perennial Nursery with Nick Wren Nick Wren of Living Soil Tree Farms joins Jason to talk about the practical realities of starting and running an edible perennial nursery. Nick shar...

20 Nov 20251h 29min

DO 290 - Distributism, Local Commons, and Agrarian Futures with Chris Smaje

DO 290 - Distributism, Local Commons, and Agrarian Futures with Chris Smaje

Jason and Ashley welcome back Chris Smaje to discuss his new book, “Finding Lights in a Dark Age,” now available for purchase. Chris is a returning guest who first appeared on the podcast to discuss h...

18 Nov 20251h 24min

DO 289 - Beef, Bartering, and the Agorist's Guide to Not Starving with Nigel, Nate, and Jason

DO 289 - Beef, Bartering, and the Agorist's Guide to Not Starving with Nigel, Nate, and Jason

Nigel Best doesn’t have time for your bullshit. He’s too busy welding gates, rotating cattle, building spiral staircases, and conducting “illicit beef transactions” in Craigslist parking lots.Missouri...

13 Nov 20251h 27min

DO 288 - Beyond Interchangeability: Leah Sargeant on the Dignity of Dependence

DO 288 - Beyond Interchangeability: Leah Sargeant on the Dignity of Dependence

Why We Need Each Other More Than Everhttps://undpress.nd.edu/9780268210335/the-dignity-of-dependence/https://www.compactmag.com/article/the-great-feminization/Ashley welcomes back Leah Sargeant to dis...

11 Nov 202559min

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