Doomer Optimism21 Okt 2025

DO 285 - AI and The 95% Extinction Threshold

AI safety researcher Nate Soares explains why he believes there's at least a 95% chance that current AI development will lead to human extinction, and why we're accelerating toward that outcome. Soares, who has been working on AI alignment since 2012, breaks down the fundamental problem: we're building increasingly intelligent systems without any ability to control what they actually want or pursue.The conversation covers current AI behavior that wasn't programmed: threatening users, keeping psychotic people in delusional states, and repeatedly lying when caught. Soares explains why these aren't bugs to be fixed but symptoms of a deeper problem. We can't point AI systems at any specific goal, not even something simple like "make a diamond." Instead, we get systems with bizarre drives that are only distantly related to their training.Soares addresses the "racing China" argument and why it misunderstands the threat. He explains why AI engineers can build powerful systems without understanding what's actually happening inside them, and why this matters. Using examples from evolutionary biology, he shows why there's no reason to expect AI systems to develop human-like morality or values.The discussion covers why a catastrophic warning event probably won't help, what international coordination could look like, and why current safety efforts fall short of what's needed. Soares is direct about industry motivations, technical limitations, and the timeline we're facing.Nate Soares has been researching AI alignment and safety since 2012. He works at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), one of the pioneering organizations focused on ensuring advanced AI systems are aligned with human values.

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Episoder(302)

Episode 31 - Chelsey Norman and Willow Liana w/ Ashley Colby

On a very special Doomer Optimism we have three Twitter powerhouses on one episode! Chelsey Norman (@quachelsey), Willow Liana (@willlowthewhisp), and Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) mix it up about the ...

21 Apr 20221h 14min

Episode 30 - Nina Power w/ Ashley Colby

This episode of Doomer Optimism sees host Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) chats with writer and philosopher Nina Power. The two discuss gender politics, the meaning of Doomer Optimism, and the definition...

19 Apr 202241min

Episode 29 - David Cayley w/ Tara Theike and Donald Antenen

On this, the 29th episode of Doomer Optimism, first time hosts Tara Thieke (@TaraAnnThieke) and Donald Antenen (@riversofeurope) dive into the work and themes of Ivan Illich, the preeminent Roman Cath...

15 Apr 20221h 23min

Episode 28 - Neal Spackman w/ Ashley Colby and Jason Synder

On this episode of Doomer Optimism, hosts Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) and Jason Snyder(@cognazor) sit down with none other than the regenerative guru himself, Neal Spackman (@NealSpackman). For the r...

12 Apr 20221h 36min

Episode 27 - William Wheelwright w/ Tres Crow

On this episode of Doomer Optimism, Tres Crow (@dogeatcrow) chats up frequent DO contributor William Wheelwright (@ploughmansfolly) about his now infamous Twitter thread, how America can be saved with...

31 Mar 20221h 37min

Episode 26 - Jeff McFadden w/ Jason Snyder and Dave, Aspring Peasant

In a very special episode of Doomer Optimism, Jason Snyder (@Cognazor) and first-time host Dave (@aspiringpeasant) have a striking convo with Mr. Donkey himself, Jeff McFadden (@homemadeguitars). Natu...

29 Mar 20221h 30min

Episode 25 - John Michael Greer w/ Ashley Colby, Jason Snyder, and Steven Morris

On this episode of Doomer Optimism, Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool), Jason Snyder(@cognazor), and Steven Morris (@lifesmyth) sat down with the incredible John Michael Greer, previous founder of the Archd...

26 Mar 20221h 25min

Episode 24 - Gregory Landua w/ Ashly Colby, Jason Snyder, and Josh Heling

On this episode a trio of hosts, Ashley Colby, Jason Snyder, and Josh Heling, have a chat with Gregory Landua, the Co-founder of the regenerative finance company Regen Network. Topics range from DeFi,...

17 Mar 20222h 21min