EMD014 - FOMC Focus

Energy Markets Daily's Tuesday FOMC Focus - September 16, 2025. Under 4-minute briefing for energy executives and institutional capital. Opening snapshot: WTI $63.47/bbl (range $63.31-$63.52), Brent $67.63/bbl (+0.25% daily, +19 cents), Henry Hub $3.02/MMBtu (-0.90% daily). Energy ETFs: USO $74.23 (+1.25%), UNG $12.91 (+3.20%). FOMC decision focus: Federal Reserve meeting September 16-17, market expects 96% probability 0.25% rate cut to 4.00%-4.25% range, energy impact from weaker dollar could boost fuel demand. Geopolitical developments: Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure intensified, mounting US pressure on Russian crude buyers, Gaza tensions adding supply risk premium. Natural gas storage: EIA +71 Bcf injection vs 69 expected, total storage 3,343 Bcf (6% above five-year average), projection 3,872 Bcf by end October. OPEC+ production: August output OPEC 27.5M bpd (+478K), OPEC+ 42.4M bpd total, October adjustment +137K bpd confirmed, Vienna meeting Sept 18-19 for 2027 baselines. Technical analysis: WTI consolidating above $60, resistance $63-$64, psychological $65-$66; Brent testing $67.59 with geopolitical support; natural gas bullish momentum above $2.60 targeting $3.60. Major M&A: Chord Energy/XTO $550M Williston Basin acquisition from ExxonMobil, California Resources discussing Berry Corporation, US upstream deals down 60% to $30.5B in H1 2025. Energy inflation: August CPI energy +0.7% monthly, gasoline +1.9%, YoY energy +0.2%, natural gas +13.8%, electricity +6.2%. Strategic positioning: Fed rate cut expectations supporting energy demand, geopolitical premium maintaining price floor, natural gas technical momentum bullish despite above-average storage builds.