EMD049 - Macro Context: Global Slowdown, Central Banks Easing, Energy Demand Divergence

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily, brought to you by DailyDominanceNow.com. Wednesday, November 5, 2025 — Macro Context: Global Slowdown, Central Banks Easing, Energy Demand Divergence. Today, we zoom out to examine the global economic conditions and forward-looking forecasts that are shaping energy markets through year-end 2025 and into 2026. The global economy is navigating a period of continued slowdown. The International Monetary Fund projects global growth at 3.2% for 2025, a slight upward revision from April but still reflecting a downward trend from 2024. The World Bank, however, is more pessimistic, forecasting just 2.3% growth for 2025, marking the weakest pace since 2008 outside of global recessions, with growth forecasts downgraded for nearly 70% of all economies. The OECD raised its forecast to 3.2%, citing greater-than-expected resilience in many economies earlier in the year. However, risks to these forecasts are tilted to the downside, primarily due to intensified trade barriers and heightened global policy uncertainty. Central banks are responding with cautious easing. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in October to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second cut this year. While there is anticipation of a possible additional 25 basis point cut in December, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that such a decision is not a certainty and will be contingent on forthcoming economic data. The European Central Bank is holding rates steady as inflation is currently around the 2% medium-term target, but market expectations point to a 1.00% reduction in ECB rates by Q4 2025. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate target unchanged at 3.60% in November, remaining cautious due to more persistent inflation than expected. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 1.07% by Q4 2025, while the Bank of Japan is anticipated to increase rates by 0.38%, marking a divergence in global monetary policy. China's economic weakness is a critical concern. The official China Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 was 49.0, a decline from 49.8 in September and below market expectations of 49.6. This marks the weakest reading in six months and indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector. New export orders fell sharply to 45.9, a six-month low, signaling persistent demand weakness. This contraction is driven by U.S. tariffs, deflationary pressures, and weakness in the housing sector, with economic growth projected to ease to 4.5% in 2025. The macro picture reveals a critical divergence in energy demand. Global oil demand is projected to see slow growth or plateau by 2025 under most scenarios, with the International Energy Agency projecting a significant surplus in Q4 2025 and into 2026. This explains crude's bearish pressure—weak global growth, Chinese contraction, and structural demand plateau are overwhelming OPEC+'s production pause. In stark contrast, global electricity demand is forecast to increase by 3.3% in 2025, a moderation from 4.4% in 2024 but still among the highest growth rates observed over the last decade. This growth is spurred by robust economic activity, ongoing electrification, and the expansion of data centers, which consumed around 180 terawatt-hours in 2024. Renewable sources are expected to expand rapidly, with their share of global electricity supply forecast to rise to 35% in 2025 from 30% in 2023. As we head into Q4 2025, the macro framework is clear: traditional oil demand faces structural headwinds, while electricity demand remains resilient. This divergence is reshaping energy markets and positioning natural gas as a critical bridge fuel for the energy transition. Energy capital inquiries: energymarkets@protonmail.com — subject: Energy Capital.