EMD053 - Technicals: Crude Fades Below $60, Gas Consolidates at $4.34

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily, brought to you by DailyDominanceNow.com. Tuesday, November 11, 2025 — Technicals: Crude Fades Below $60, Gas Consolidates at $4.34. Today, we dissect the market structure and key price levels, providing actionable tactical setups grounded in real-time data. WTI crude oil faded Monday's bounce, falling to $59.94, down 0.31% from Monday's close at $60.26. In early Tuesday trading, crude is hovering around $59.90 to $59.96 per barrel. The technical picture is unambiguous: crude continues to trade within a descending channel pattern, with bearish momentum intact. The 100-day Simple Moving Average is below the 200-day SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the downside. Monday's reclaim of $60 was a dead-cat bounce, rejected at channel resistance around $60.48. Sellers defended that level, and crude has now faded back below $60. The key support level to watch is $59.48, the 0.382 Fibonacci extension level, which is currently being tested. A break below $59.48 opens the door to further downside targets: $59.17 at the 50% extension, $58.86 at the 61.8% extension, and $58.48 at the 76.4% Fibonacci level, which coincides with the lower boundary of the descending channel. The ultimate downside target is $57.87 at the 100% extension, where stronger support might emerge. A break below $59 could open the door to declines toward $55.50. On the upside, resistance remains at $60.48 and $62.50. A break above $62.50 could lead to further gains toward the 200-day SMA near $65, but that scenario requires a fundamental catalyst that is not currently present. Natural gas consolidated at $4.34, up just 0.15% from Monday's explosive close at $4.49. This pullback reflects profit-taking after Monday's 4% surge and overbought conditions signaled by the Relative Strength Index. Natural gas exhibits bullish momentum, having broken above the $3.50 level and establishing higher lows along an ascending trend line. The 50-day SMA is crossing above the 200-day SMA near $3.50, signaling a bullish trend. However, the RSI indicates that natural gas prices have reached overbought territory, suggesting a potential short-term correction. The tactical range for natural gas is clear. Resistance is at $4.70, and a sustained break above that level would signal further upside potential toward $5.00. Support is at $4.00, and a pullback toward that level would offer a strong buying opportunity for longer-term gains. The ultimate support level is $3.50, where the 50-day and 200-day SMAs converge. Factors supporting higher prices include forecasts for colder temperatures in the U.S., which are expected to boost heating demand, and strong LNG export demand, with flows to major LNG plants averaging around 17.4 billion cubic feet per day. However, increased U.S. natural gas production, which has jumped to a record high, could be a bearish factor. The tactical setups for the rest of the week: For crude, watch $59.48. A breakdown below that level is a short entry targeting $58.86 and $58.48. A reclaim above $60.48 invalidates the bearish setup and targets $62.50. For natural gas, watch $4.00. A pullback to $4.00 is a long entry targeting $4.70 and $5.00. A breakdown below $4.00 signals deeper correction toward $3.50. The technical framework for the week is clear: crude's descending channel remains dominant with downside risk toward $58.48, while natural gas's bullish trend faces near-term overbought conditions with consolidation likely between $4.00 and $4.70. The divergence between crude's bearish technicals and natural gas's bullish structure persists. Energy capital inquiries: energymarkets@protonmail.com — subject: Energy Capital.