Citi's Dirk Willer on How You Know When the Bubble Is Over
Odd Lots15 Nov 2025

Citi's Dirk Willer on How You Know When the Bubble Is Over

According to Dirk Willer, the Global Head of Macro Strategy at Citigroup, we are definitely in bubble territory. Per his research, the stock market has been in a bubble since May. Unlike many people, whose definitions of bubbles are a bit more vague or a bit more based on sentiment, Dirk's work focuses on precise timing and price indicators that distinguish bubbles from mere booms. Furthermore, he argues that when the bubble first forms, the correct move historically is to buy into it and then just accept that you'll never nail the top perfectly. On this episode, we talk about his overall approach as well as the signs of when the bubble has come to an end. We also talk about current parallels to the dotcom bubble, why gold has had such a monster year, and the signs from the Treasury market that make the US look increasingly like an emerging market.

Read more:
Stock Bounce Wanes on Fed Angst as Bitcoin Plunges: Markets Wrap
Gold ‘Trading Like a Meme Stock’ Sets Up Miners as Levered Bet

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Greg Brew on Surging Energy and the 'Strategic Trap' of the War in Iran

Greg Brew on Surging Energy and the 'Strategic Trap' of the War in Iran

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What War in Iran Means for China's Teapot Oil Refineries

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In the wake of the war in Iran, oil prices have shot up for everyone. But not all oil is exactly equal. And, obviously, a lot of Iranian oil goes to China specifically. Furthermore, because Iran’s oil...

13 Mar 43min

Legendary Hacker Matt Suiche on Cyberwar in the Age of AI

Legendary Hacker Matt Suiche on Cyberwar in the Age of AI

We tend to think of warfare in two distinct arenas: the physical and the digital. Increasingly, however, those lines are blurring. Last week, Iran launched drone strikes on data centers in the UAE and...

12 Mar 49min

War in Iran Is Creating a Fertilizer Crisis Like Never Before

War in Iran Is Creating a Fertilizer Crisis Like Never Before

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11 Mar 30min

Rory Johnston on How Oil Could Surge to Over $200 a Barrel

Rory Johnston on How Oil Could Surge to Over $200 a Barrel

Oil has obviously spiked massively since the start of the war with Iran. And if you look at various end products, such as jet fuel, the surge is even more extreme. And if the war is prolonged, or if t...

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