EMD060 - EIA Inventory Report: The Draw That Didn't Matter

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily, brought to you by DailyDominanceNow.com. Thursday, November 20, 2025 — EIA Inventory Reports. The data is in. Crude drew. Natural gas withdrew. But the market didn't care. Let's break down why. **Crude Oil - Surprise Draw** U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.4 million barrels for the week ending November 14th. Total stocks now sit at 424.2 million barrels. This is about 5% below the five-year average for this time of year. Analysts expected a draw of only 603,000 barrels. The actual draw was nearly six times larger. What drove it? Stronger crude exports. U.S. crude exports surged by 1.34 million barrels per day to 4.16 million barrels per day. Refinery run rates increased. Refineries operated at 90% capacity, up 0.6 percentage points. Cushing, Oklahoma: Inventories at the WTI delivery hub dropped by 698,000 barrels to 22.5 million barrels. Cushing is draining. The market reaction? WTI crude traded around $59.50. The draw didn't matter. Why? Because the macro backdrop is bearish. Reports that the U.S. is renewing efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war weighed on prices. A ceasefire could allow the free flow of Russian oil into the market. **Gasoline and Distillates - Builds** Gasoline inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels to 207.4 million barrels. This was the first increase in seven weeks. Analysts expected a draw. Gasoline production decreased to 9.3 million barrels per day. Implied demand fell by 500,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Distillate inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels to 111.1 million barrels. Analysts expected a draw of 1.2 million barrels. Distillates are about 7% below the five-year average, but the build signals weak diesel demand. **Natural Gas - Withdrawal Season Begins** Natural gas storage withdrew 12 billion cubic feet for the week ending November 14th. Total working gas in storage stands at 3,960 billion cubic feet. This is 172 Bcf above the five-year average and roughly flat compared to last year. The withdrawal is smaller than expected, signaling mild weather and ample supply. Natural gas is trading at $4.37 per MMBtu, holding support despite the bearish storage data. **What It Means** The crude draw was bullish on paper. But the market is forward-looking. Geopolitical risk is fading. Demand is weak. The EIA projects crude prices will fall to $55 per barrel by 2026. Gasoline and distillate builds confirm weak demand heading into winter. Natural gas is holding because of structural demand from LNG exports and data centers, not because of storage draws. **Final Word** The inventory data confirmed the thesis: crude fundamentals are bearish. Natural gas fundamentals are structurally supported. Trade the decoupling. For inquiries: energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Friday for the Weekly Recap.