Macro Musings with David Beckworth

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest on Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about some of the recent developments in the monetary and financial policy space. Specifically, David and George discuss the history and present developments surrounding FedNow, the future of real-time payments, how to revise the Fed’s operating system, whether the Fed is currently delivering on a soft landing, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George Cato Institute profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *George Selgin on False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery* by Macro Musings   *Getting Up From the Floor* by Claudio Borio   *Opening a Federal Reserve Account* by Julie Hill   *From Cannabis to Crypto: Federal Reserve Discretion in Payments* by Julie Hill   *Fiscal Arithmetic and the Global Inflation Outlook* by Peder Beck-Friis and Richard Clarida

31 Jul 202358min

Bryan Cutsinger is an assistant professor of economics at Angelo State University and Louis Rouanet is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Texas, El Paso. Bryan and Louis join Macro Musings to talk about the French Revolution, France’s public finances, its bout with hyperinflation, and finally, the implications of this experience for macroeconomic theory today. Specifically, David, Bryan and Louis also discuss the creation and widespread dissemination of assignats, the emergence guillotine-backed currency in France, the state vs. market theories of money, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Bryan’s Twitter: @BryanPCutsinger Bryan’s website Bryan’s ASU profile   Louis’s Twitter: @LouisROUANET Louis’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Assignats or Death: The Politics and Dynamics of Hyperinflation in Revolutionary France* by Bryan Cutsinger, Louis Rouanet, and Joshua Ingber   *Macroeconomics Features of the French Revolution* by Thomas Sargent and Francois Velde

24 Jul 202354min

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde is a professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania and is the co-director of the Business, Economic, and Financial History Project at the Wharton School of Business. Jesus is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about recent macroeconomic developments, the demographic issues facing the world, and AI’s implications for economic growth. Specifically, David and Jesus also discuss whether we needed the fiscal and monetary stimulus of 2021, the European inflation story, South Korea as a case study for global demographic trends, how quantum computing will may impact macroeconomics in the future, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Jesus’s UPenn profile Jesus’s NBER archive   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Demographic Future of Humanity: The Trends* by Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde   *The Demographic Future of Humanity: Economic Challenge* by Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde   *The Demographic Future of Humanity: Social Change* by Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde   *Dynamic Programming on a Quantum Annealer: Solving the RBC Model* by Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Isaiah Hull

17 Jul 202357min

Chris Conlon is an associate professor of economics at the NYU Stern School of Business where he focuses on industrial organization economics and econometrics. Chris joins David on Macro Musings to help shed light on the 2021-2023 inflation surge from the perspective of an IO economist. Specifically, David and Chris discuss the great markup debate within IO economics, the shaky foundation of greedflation, the cost anticipation story of higher prices, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Chris’s Twitter: @conlon_chris Chris’s website Chris’s NYU profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Rising Markups, Rising Prices?* by Chris Conlon, Nathan Miller, Tsolmon Otgon, and Yi Yao   Chris’s Twitter thread on the recent inflationary episode   *The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomics Implications* by Jan De Loecker, Jan Eeckhout, and Gabriel Unger   *How Much Have Record Corporate Profits Contributed to Recent Inflation?* by Andrew Glover, Jose Mustre-del-Rio, Alice von Ende-Becker

10 Jul 202359min

Tim Lee is an independent journalist who formerly worked for the Washington Post, Vox, and Ars Technica, where he covered tech policy, blockchain issues, the future of transportation, and the economy. Tim currently produces the newsletter, Understanding AI, and is also a returning guest to Macro Musings. He rejoins the podcast to talk about AI, automation, and its implications for the macroeconomy and policy. Specifically, David and Tim also discuss the singularism vs physicalism debate, the possible threats posed by AI, how the regulatory landscape will be affected by AI, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Tim’s Twitter: @binarybits Tim’s newsletter: Understanding AI   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!                                                       Related Links:   *The AI Safety Debate is Focusing on the Wrong Threats* by Tim Lee   *Congress Shouldn’t Rush Into Regulating AI* by Tim Lee   *The Death of Self-Driving Cars is Greatly Exaggerated* by Tim Lee   *I Ordered Robot Takeout on Two Campuses with Wildly Different Results* by Tim Lee   *Why I’m Not Worried About AI Causing Mass Unemployment* by Tim Lee   *US Air Force Says it Did Not Run Simulation in Which AI Drone ‘Killed its Operator’* by Tom Vanden Brook and Kim Hjelmgaard   *Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity* by Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson

3 Jul 202355min

Steven Kamin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and previously was the director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. Steve joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the US dollar and its implications for policy and the economy. Specifically, David and Steven discuss the effects of Fed policy on emerging markets, the factors that are driving a higher global equilibrium real interest rate, how to reconcile the domestic and international impacts of Fed policy, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Steven’s Twitter: @steven_kamin Steven’s AEI profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Will the Strong Dollar Trigger a Global Recession?* by Steven Kamin   *How Do Rising US Interest Rates Affect Emerging and Developing Economies? It Depends* by Steven Kamin, Carlos Arteta, and Franz Ulrich   *Are Higher US Interest Rates Always Bad News for Emerging Markets?* by Steven Kamin, Jasper Hoek, and Emre Yoldas

26 Jun 202356min

Chris Hughes is a senior fellow at the Institute on Race, Power, and Political Economy at The New School, and he is also the co-founder of the Economic Security Project and a senior advisor at the Roosevelt Institute. Previously, he was also the publisher of The New Republic and is a co-founder of Facebook. Chris joins Macro Musings to talk about his work on Arthur Burns’ tenure as Fed Chair and the lessons we can learn from it as applied to today’s inflation experience. Specifically, David and Chris also discuss Arthur Burns’ view of the economy and inflation, how his perspective on business psychology impacted these views, Burns’ view of fiscal and industrial policy as a tool for combating inflation, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Chris’s Twitter: @chrishughes Chris’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Rethinking Arthur Bruns, the “Worst” Fed Chair in History* by Chris Hughes   *Digital Dollars: Critical Design Choices and Effects of a Central Bank Digital Currency* by Chris Hughes

19 Jun 202354min

Peter Stella is the former head of the IMF’s Central Banking Division and has researched and written extensively on safe assets, collateral, and central bank operations. He now hosts the website, Central Banking Archaeology and continues to consult with the IMF on central bank balance sheet issues. Peter is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the quasi-fiscal implications of central bank crisis intervention over the past few years. David and Peter also discuss the losses on the Fed’s balance sheet, using market value versus the par value of debt, the Fed’s debt management issues with mortgage backed securities, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Peter’s Twitter: @Stellar_Consult Peter’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Quasi-Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Crisis Interventions: Case Studies* by Peter Stella, John Hooley, and Claney Lattie   *Do Central Banks Need Capital?* by Peter Stella   *Exiting Well* by Peter Stella

12 Jun 202350min