Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Peter Conti-Brown is a historian and legal scholar of the Federal Reserve System and an associate professor at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Peter returns to the podcast to discuss the state of Federal Reserve leadership under the incoming Trump administration, expectations for Fed independence, a new proposal for limiting stigma at the discount window, stories about a life lead by faith, and much more.   Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on January 10th, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Peter Conti-Brown on BlueSky: @PeterContiBrown Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:23) – Reaching Audiences Through Various Forms of Media (00:10:30) – Federal Reserve Under Trump 2.0 (00:21:33) – Jerome Powell (00:25:56) – Michael Barr (00:34:52) – New Discount Window Proposal (00:40:27) – Faith Life (00:56:28) – Radical Uncertainty (01:00:15) – Outro

20 Jan 1h

David Bahnsen is a Wall Street veteran and currently is the managing director of The Bahnsen Group. In David’s first appearance on the podcast, he talks through multiple questions about the incoming Trump Administration, the problem with the growing indebtedness of the US government, shifts in the Republican party, the notion of financialization of the US economy, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links. Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow David Bahnsen on X: @DavidBahnsen Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:50) – David Bahnsen’s Career Path (00:04:39) – Shifts in the Republican Party (00:12:20) – Trump Administration 2.0 and Growth, the Fed, and the Financial Sector? (00:33:38) – Financialization and Missed Boats (00:54:02) – Outro

13 Jan 54min

Marijn Bolhuis is an economist in the World Economic Studies Division of the IMF’s research department. In Marijn’s first appearance on the podcast he discusses his new paper, which introduces the idea of a fiscal r-star, and expands on another paper which helps economists understand why consumer sentiment is so depressed, despite relatively low unemployment and inflation coming back to target. Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links. Follow David on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Marijn on X: @MA_Bolhuis Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:38) – Marijn Bolhuis’ Career Path (00:06:02) – Fiscal R-Star (00:45:30) – Cost of Money and Consumer Sentiment (00:51:43) – Outro

6 Jan 52min

David Beckworth and producer Sam Alburger dive into the last year of Macro Musings. They pick their favorite episodes, discuss how the year 2024 will be remembered in the macroeconomic history, highlight stories about the making of the show, combine David’s love for basketball and economics, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links. Follow David on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:18) – Year in Review (00:11:48) – New Macro Musings Content (00:15:13) – NGDP Level Targeting vs. FAIT (00:18:43) – Preparing for Macro Musings Interviews (00:24:23) – Macro Musings and AI (00:26:17) – Looking Back at 2024 in Macroeconomic History (00:30:27) – Combing David’s Love for Economics and Basketball (00:34:34) – Thank You’s (01:00:13) – Outro

30 Des 202437min

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a returning guest to the program, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about crypto, strategic Bitcoin reserves, and the Fed’s framework review. Specifically, David and George also discuss George’s outlook for a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the US, the significance of the debanking problem, the path to adopting a nominal GDP targeting framework, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George’s Cato profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The ‘Digital Gold’ Fallacy, or Why Bitcoin Can’t Save the US Dollar* by George Selgin   *The Fed’s 2024-25 Framework Review: Optimizing the Dual Mandate Through Nominal GDP Level Targeting* by David Beckworth   *Building a Better Fed Framework* – A monetary policy conference hosted by the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER)   Caitlin Long’s X thread on debanking   David Marcus’s X thread on how Libra was killed   *Does Sovereign Default Risk Explain Cryptocurrency Adoption? International Evidence from Mobile Apps* by Rashad Ahmed, Stephen Karolyi, and Leili Pour Rostami   *Digital Gold: Evaluating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for the United States* by the Bitcoin Policy Institute   *Trump Likes the Idea of a Federal Bitcoin Reserve. Don’t Laugh.* by Tyler Cowen   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:34) – Evaluating the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Gold   (00:26:22) – George’s Outlook for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve   (00:34:16) – The Significance of the Debanking Problem and the Case of Libra   (00:43:18) – *Building a Better Fed Framework*: George’s Takeaways   (00:49:16) – The Path to Nominal GDP Targeting: Incremental vs. Radical   (00:54:10) – Characterizing a Fed Framework Consensus   (01:00:13) – Outro

23 Des 20241h

Joey Politano is an economist and a commentator who writes a popular Substack newsletter on economics. Joey is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins David to talk about the AI investment boom and broader economic growth trends. Specifically, David and Joey also discuss generational differences in economic perspectives, the increased demand for nuclear energy, the importance of AI in driving scientific research, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Joey’s X: @JosephPolitano Joey’s Bluesky: @josephpolitano.bsky.social Joey’s Substack   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The AI Investment Boom* by Joey Politano   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:03:09) – The Competition Between X and Bluesky   (00:10:55) – The Generational Differences in Economic Perspectives   (00:16:23) – Breaking Down the AI Investment Boom   (00:23:55) – Have We Left Behind the World of Secular Stagnation?   (00:27:47) – Did ChatGPT Kickstart the Next Chapter of Growth?   (00:34:35) – AI and Increased Demand for Nuclear Energy   (00:39:45) – The Importance of AI in Driving Scientific Research and Growth   (00:44:34) – The Current State of Economic Growth   (00:53:40) – Outro

16 Des 202454min

Jeffrey Lacker is a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center, and he previously worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, where he served as its president from 2004 to 2017. Jeff is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the history of the Federal Reserve’s credit policy, as well as a recent Shadow Open Market Committee conference.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Jeffrey’s website Jeffrey’s Mercatus profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *A 50-Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and its Role in Monetary Policy* — A conference hosted by the Hoover Institution   *From the “Lender of Last Resort” to “Too Big to Fail” to “Financial System Savior”: Federal Reserve Credit Policy and the Shadow Open Market Committee* by Jeffrey Lacker   *Last Resort Lending: Classical Thought vs. Modern Federal Reserve Practice* by Jeffrey Lacker   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:47) – The Shadow Open Market Committee and its Contributions Throughout Time   (00:05:32) – Highlights from the Recent Shadow Open Market Committee Conference   (00:10:17) – From FAIT Back to FIT?   (00:14:07) – *Federal Reserve Credit Policy and the Shadow Open Market Committee*: Motivation and Summary   (00:16:05) – Breaking Down the Difference Between Credit Policy and Monetary Policy   (00:22:10) – The Four Doctrines of Fed Lending: The Monetary Stability Doctrine   (00:28:56) – The Four Doctrines of Fed Lending: The Real Bills Doctrine   (00:34:49) – The Four Doctrines of Fed Lending: Warburg’s Mercantilism   (00:39:11) – The Four Doctrines of Fed Lending: Too-big-to-fail and the Reluctant Samaritan   (00:47:45) – Solutions for Improving the System Moving Forward   (00:55:25) – Outro

9 Des 202456min

Zachary Mazlish is an economist at the University of Oxford, and he joins David on Macro Musings to explain some recent and important macroeconomic developments, specifically the inflation linkages to the 2024 presidential election and the macroeconomic implications of transformative AI. David and Zach also discuss transformative AI’s impact on asset pricing, optimal monetary policy in world of high growth, the causes of the slowdown in trend productivity, and more.   Transcript for this week’s  episode.   Zach’s Twitter: @ZMazlish Zach’s Substack Zach’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Yes, Inflation Made the Median Voter Poorer* by Zachary Mazlish   *Transformative AI, Existential Risk, and Real Interest Rates* by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and Zachary Mazlish   *Decomposing the Great Stagnation: Baumol’s Cost Disease vs. “Ideas Are Getting Hard to Find”* by Basil Halperin and Zachary Mazlish   *The Unexpected Compression: Competition at Work in the Low Wage Labor Market* by David Autor, Arin Dube, and Annie McGrew   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:04:03) – Inflation Made the Median Voter Poorer: Comparing Periods of Wage Growth   (00:15:26) – Inflation Made the Median Voter Poorer: The Median Change in the Wage   (00:22:19) – Assessing the Feedback to Zachary’s Article   (00:25:05) – The Significance of Transformative AI and its Double-Edged Sword   (00:27:02) – The Impact of Transformative AI on Asset Pricing and its Policy Challenges   (00:38:07) – The Broader Macroeconomic Effects of Rapid Growth   (00:41:05) – Optimal Monetary Policy in a World of High Growth   (00:43:19) – Exploring the Causes of the Productivity Slowdown   (00:49:21) – Outro

2 Des 202450min