Global Data Pod Weekender: You can get there from here
The first half is tracking roughly in line with our trend-like outlook just ahead of the US election last year. However, 2H25 should deliver a very different picture if our forecast is right. Assessin...
20 Jun 202538min
Global Data Pod Weekender: Gauging the coming slowdown
The drags on global growth related to the trade war are building but there remains considerable uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of the coming downshift in global growth. For its part we ex...
13 Jun 202535min
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor: Tariff impact delayed but not denied
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss key takeaways from the May CPI reports and the outlook for the rest of the year. While May inflation surprised softer i...
12 Jun 202528min
Global Data Pod Weekender: Identification in the time of front-loading
The global economy looks to be posting trend-like growth in 1H25. How much of this is underlying resilience in a healthy expansion and how much is transitory front-loading set to reverse in 2H25 is ce...
6 Jun 202529min
Global Data Pod Weekender: Not so fast on the off-ramp
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss their view that hopes of a court-led off-ramp to the US war on trade are overstated. They maintain that the risks are skewed toward higher, not lower, t...
30 Mai 202532min
Global Data Pod Weekender: A whole lotta shakin’ goin’ on
Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That said, the data flow this week aligned with our for...
24 Mai 202537min
Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain? No way
The increased risks of recession and signs of significant disruptions in the goods market have likely played a role in getting the US to back off its draconian trade war policies, culminating this wee...
16 Mai 202526min
Global Data Pod Weekender: Threat assessment
The hard activity data continue to show resilient growth in the first four months of the year. We maintain our recession call owing to 1) front-loading that will impart a drag going forward, 2) materi...
9 Mai 202521min
