FX Outlook 2024: The dollar's long goodbye
Recent months have seen the US dollar on a powerful bull run. Propelled by strong economic growth and a hawkish Federal Reserve, which has signalled that interest rates will stay higher for longer, the dollar index has risen around 5% since July. But will this strong dollar theme continue in 2024? ING's Chris Turner has his doubts.
21 Nov 202312min
Why oil prices will stay high and add to stagflation risk
The price of oil surged more than 30% in the third quarter, driven by solid global demand, supply cuts from OPEC+ and additional voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. But is the market starting to turn? And what does it all mean for growth, inflation and monetary policy? ING's Head of Commodities Strategy, Warren PattersonSenior Economist Bert Colijn says this has serious implications for growth, inflation and monetary policy in the eurozone.
6 Okt 202318min
Central banks and the rate cut countdown
As interest rates in the US, UK and Europe approach a peak, and economic growth shows further signs of faltering, the focus has firmly shifted to rate cuts. In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of ING's live central bank webinar, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss their forecasts for monetary policy over the coming year while Chris Turner explains what it all means for markets.
19 Sep 202328min
China is no 1990s Japan - but it could have been
As the Western world struggles to tame high inflation, fears of persistent deflation are taking root in China. Prices at the factory gate have been dropping for months and in June, fell at the fastest pace in seven years. Consumer prices, meanwhile, have begun to flatline. The property market is stagnating and the economy overall has been losing momentum, fuelling speculation that China could be facing a prolonged period of decline similar to the so-called Lost Decade witnessed by Japan in the 1990s. China, the world’s second biggest economy, may indeed be entering a new era, after many years of rapid growth. But ING’s Regional Head of Research in Asia, Rob Carnell, says comparisons to Japan are wide of the mark. In this podcast, he explains why.
3 Aug 202315min
Shocking challenges: Electric vehicles face roadblocks ahead
Global temperatures have shattered records this month, heightening the urgency to reduce carbon emissions. But the energy transition and the shift to electric vehicles, in particular, is fraught with challenges, as ING Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey explains in this podcast.
27 Jul 202311min
There may be trouble ahead... for the UK
In this podcast, a replay of an ING event this week, Developed Markets Economist James Smith and Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne discuss the outlook for UK inflation, interest rates, and mortgage costs, and whether a recession is now inevitable while Global Head of Markets Chris Turner explains what the markets are looking for - and why the pound has recently been faltering.
30 Jun 202327min
Central banks, inflation and why the battle isn't over
In a live webinar event this week, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski and James Smith discussed the outlook for inflation, economic growth and monetary policy around the world while Chris Turner explained what it could all mean for markets.
13 Jun 202327min
What the US debt ceiling drama means for the dollar
As talks to raise the US debt ceiling go down to the wire, and the threat of a default looms large, currency markets have remained remarkably composed. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner discusses what could happen to the dollar if a deal is not agreed, and what he expects from the rest of the FX world in the months ahead.
25 Mai 202313min
