Multipolarity

The numbers are finally in. Israel’s economy has contracted 20 per cent year on year.It seems the only consolation is that it’s still doing better than the economy of Gaza. How long can this level of decline go on? With no end to the war in sight, and a new front in Lebanon cracking open, are we witnessing Israel’s fall from the first rank of the OECD? Meanwhile, remember the war no one cared about? You know – the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War?Of September 2020? Between Armenia and Azerbaijan? Well, what would you say if we told you the world stands on the brink of Armenia-Azerbaijan War Three? Nothing much? Finally, a new Treasury Committee Report says that the Bank of England will have lost £80 billion by the end of the year. That’s cash, not just a paper loss. In fact, the full paper loss is around 250 billion. That means the new Bank debt shovelled on the government’s books this year is close to the entire Defence budget. Given the present intellectual state of the bank, only one question remains. Does anyone have a bridge to sell them?

22 Feb 20241h 4min

Bloomberg says “Germany’s Days as an Industrial Superpower Are Coming to an End”. Which poses at least one serious question - has Bloomberg been listening to Multipolarity? As the industrial decline narrative goes mainstream, it seems like the copium has finally run out in the Chancellories of Europe. Meanwhile, reports in the West of a Chinese bust have reached the kind of fevered tone normally associated with the final days of a boom. Yet somehow retail spending is growing at 7.4 per cent a year, and prices of consumer items like cars are still coming down. So is this the world’s first projection-recession? Finally, Egypt is threatening to withdraw from the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty. How much of that is sabre rattling designed to please the Egyptian in the street? And will it be enough to stop the Egyptian in the street becoming the Egyptians in Tahrir Square?

15 Feb 202452min

The US is now bombing Iranian targets, via B1 bombers that have to be flown direct from Texas to perform the task. This is an interesting new form of madness. As the West is pulled ever-deeper into the quagmire, we're taking a low road/high road approach to prediction: attempting to model the potential for serious conflict right up to an Iraq-style land war invasion. Then, we're devoting the second half of the show to thinking more strategically, about the future of the region, the prospects for shutting the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential strategic cards the West has left. *** This week is a Premium Week - every month, we offer our Patrons an exclusive special edition. Our chat with Malcom went on for 1h40, so we've decided to offer the free listeners the first 40 minutes. If you'd like to hear the full whack, including Malcom's thoughts on the potential for Iranian sleeper cells to perform sabotage operations in Europe and America, please do sign up. It's $5/£5/€5 a month, and you can cancel any time. Hell, at this point, you could probably just pay your fiver, go in there, binge on all the previous premium eps, and exfiltrate the very next day. If you were so inclined. Get on our Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

7 Feb 202443min

All the greatest romances are love/hate. As The Richard Burton and Elizabeth Taylor of geopolitics, Iran and America have always danced a dance of angry fascination with each other. Now, as the Middle East burns, their kismet is truly aflame. With an overstretched Joe Biden about to call in the airstrikes, we’re in the foxhole, figuring out if they’re actually gonna go all the way this time. Or if this is just one more round of heavy petting. Ever since a British general let slip the prospect of reintroducing conscription, the British media has been convulsed by a debate over the most trivial aspects of the question. Whether we still have Blitz Spirit. Whether Gen Z are too fat. Which ethnicities would be prepared to fight for the multiculti regime. There is, however, a bigger picture — something to do with war in Europe? Finally, this is the week that the FT handed their old enemy Viktor Orban a lifetime’s supply of PR gotchas. In fact, The Plot to Blow Up The Hungarian Economy might be the funniest special ops disaster since the Bay of Pigs. Hatched in Brussels, this bomb had no trigger, no fuse, no gunpowder — in short, it conformed strictly to EU regulations. *** Get us on Twitter. Or on Patreon.

1 Feb 20241h 2min

As the 8th round of Tomahawk missiles hit the Houthis in ten days, a senior White House official caused guffaws when he proclaimed the attacks aren’t working - but that we should keep on doing them anyway. That senior official’s name? Joseph P Biden. So if the President himself can’t come to a logical line on what’s going on, what hope is there for his underlings? We’ll have the latest from the Red Sea carcrash. In Britain, the new Defence Secretary Grant Shapps is ramping up the rhetoric, saying that the country is "moving from a post-war to pre-war world”. It poses an important question: what exact will Britain’s 72 000 soldiers be doing in a global war against, say, Russia’s 800 000? Selling hotdogs? Is it wise that NATO’s key figures all follow the old maxim: walk loudly and carry a small stick? Finally, Javier Milei’s running into issues with reality. He inherited 160% inflation - but thanks to months of painful austerity, inflation is now at a more manageable 200%. Like Salvador Allende before him, another radical South American government seems like it’s about to be broken apart on the wheel of hyper-inflation. Is this the teething troubles of a newborn economic tiger, or has the doom loop begun on libertarianism’s last stand? ***You can further enjoy Multipolarity on Twitter.Or on Patreon.

25 Jan 202457min

With the world's biggest container ships presently rounding the Cape of Good Hope, Vasco da Gama-style, the Lads are calling it: inflation is coming back. This could prove to be a sticky situation for the West's leaders. After all, we were supposed to have seen out the worst by now. Everything was wagered on turning the page in anticipation of election season in the autumn. So what happens to all those carefully laid plans? Meanwhile, Lloyd Austin didn’t tell his boss he was ducking out of work. Work From Home culture has made that a reality for many. Unfortunately for Lloyd, he is the Secretary of Defence while America’s gunboats bombard Yemen. Lloyd told sources that he barely missed a beat. But Philip thinks this approach speaks to a deeper dysfunction in DC. Who’s steering the Pentagon’s ship of fools? Finally, news is just in that The Solomon Islands no longer recognise Taiwan. Neither does Nicaragua. What can that mean? Yup, Beijing’s been on another spending spree, buying up influence in a brace of minor nations. With 17 countries recently having their Chinese diplomatic status upgraded, we analyse the placement of the latest pieces in the global Go game. *** You know you really should follow us on Twitter: twitter.com/multipolaritypodAnd maybe even join us on Patreon: patreon.com/user?u=86737989

18 Jan 202446min

The Global American Empire has had its honour impugned by the Houthi Rebels, sometimes called a 'ragtag army'. But as The Lads point out, that characterisation just doesn't work. High-end weapons, Iranian training, and a capacity to melt into the landscape will make 'winning' the war for control of the Red Sea an operational nightmare. With no clear goals, no obvious win criteria, and ever-more provocation to come, they think the transatlantic alliance is stepping into quicksand. This is a premium episode sampler. To sign up and hear the full version, simply head across to Patreon, and spend $5, €5 or £5 a month. Cancel any time. https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

14 Jan 202417min

Remember the Ever Given? The boat that got stuck in the Suez Canal? Well, thanks to the Houthis, traffic in the canal is down by almost as much as when it was plugged. It seems the red sea crisis is about to inject an inflation spike much like the one the Ever Given gave us. Only, this time, the memes will be much less jolly. North of Israel, the war on two fronts is coming on nicely. With the assassination of Hamas’ deputy and a Hezbollah commander on Lebanese soil, we analyse the chances that they could throw their keffiyehs into the ring. Finally, a new report shows that financialised US office space in the major metropoles is now regularly underwater. We’re returning to the question of whether it’s about to have its own 2008 moment.

11 Jan 202450min