Top Traders Unplugged31 Dec 2025

IL44: From AI Hype to Transformative AGI ft. Aubrie Pagano

In this Ideas Lab episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with venture capitalist and former founder Aubrie Pagano about what stands between today’s AI hype and a truly transformative AGI economy. Rather than treating AI as destiny, Aubrie maps the frictions that hold it back: hard power limits, fragile industrial data, and agents that still cannot coordinate with humans or each other. She explains why we may be a full capital cycle or two away from real AGI and why that delay is precisely where the best opportunities lie. The conversation then widens into the “Aquarius Economy,” a possible future in which human agency, not algorithms, becomes the scarcest and most valuable asset.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Aubrie on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why agent coordination is still clunky and unreliable

00:38 - Intro to Top Traders Unplugged and performance risk framing

01:34 - Kevin sets up the Ideas Lab and today’s focus on AGI

02:59 - Aubrie’s background as founder, researcher and VC shaping her lens

06:04 - Why she wrote about AGI and the Aquarius Economy

07:21 - AGI as the last cycle built on labor scarcity

10:41 - The blockers framework and why AGI may be a cycle or two away

12:58 - Blocker 1: energy constraints and the race for firm power

15:17 - Where investment opportunities emerge in power and grid resilience

17:43 - Blocker 2: foundational industry data gaps and Moravec’s paradox

22:00 - Skilled trades as a bottleneck and a long term opportunity

24:34 - Blocker 3: agent to human coordination and walled gardens

29:04 - Early agent marketplaces and trust mechanisms

34:41 - The Aquarius Economy as a framework for future societal structure

42:09 - Outlier groups, human agency and implications for investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

Det här avsnittet är hämtat från ett öppet RSS-flöde och publiceras inte av Podme. Det kan innehålla reklam.

Avsnitt(951)

SI410: The Next Evolution of Trend Following ft. Nick Baltas

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Nick Baltas explore how artificial intelligence, thematic investing and narrative momentum are beginning to reshape systematic investing. Alongside a review of recent CTA per...

25 Juli 0s

OI23: Why Capital Efficiency Is the Next Edge in Investing ft. Charlie McGarraugh

Charlie McGarraugh joins Moritz Seibert to discuss how systematic investing is evolving beyond traditional trend following. Drawing on experience from Goldman Sachs, crypto and machine learning, Charl...

22 Juli 0s

SI409: Why Trend Following Is Changing Faster Than Ever ft. Yoav Git

Markets are evolving in ways that few investors fully appreciate. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore how changing market structure, the rise of retail options trading and new financial product...

18 Juli 1h 8min

GM105: The Billion-Barrel Shock Has Not Arrived Yet ft. Adam Rozencwajg

More than a billion barrels of expected oil supply have been removed from the market. Yet prices suggest the danger has passed. Adam Rozencwajg joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explain wh...

15 Juli 1h 15min

SI408: Has Trend Following Changed Forever? ft. Alan Dunne

Markets continue to evolve, and so do the strategies designed to navigate them. Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore why changes in market structure may have permanently altered short ter...

11 Juli 1h 3min

GM104: How the Dollar Quietly Took Over the World ft. Brendan Greeley

The US dollar has become so familiar that most investors rarely stop to ask how it became the world's dominant currency or why that dominance has endured. Brendan Greeley joins Alan Dunne to trace the...

8 Juli 55min

SI407: Why America Is Rewriting the Rules of Capitalism ft. Cem Karsan

Markets may be entering one of the most important regime shifts in decades. Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to argue that the United States is moving away from traditional free market capitalis...

4 Juli 1h 1min

GM103: Why Optimism Could Be the Most Contrarian Trade ft. Pippa Malmgren

While much of the world is focused on geopolitical conflict, inflation and rising global tensions, Pippa Malmgren argues that a very different future may already be taking shape. Joining Niels Kaastru...

1 Juli 1h 19min