SH143: 'Entirely Predictable' vs 'Managing Uncertainty': How many rolls on the dice?

SH143: 'Entirely Predictable' vs 'Managing Uncertainty': How many rolls on the dice?

In this episode, we delve into the complexities of managing risk and uncertainty in diving, challenging the notion that accidents are "entirely predictable." Unlike measurable risks, diving involves countless variables that create uncertainty, often managed through mental shortcuts and biases. We discuss how hindsight bias, overconfidence, and peer pressure can cloud judgment, leading to poor decisions. Effective feedback, teamwork, and tools like checklists can reduce uncertainty, while debriefs and learning from others’ mistakes are crucial for improvement. Tune in to explore how divers can navigate uncertainty to enhance safety and performance in this high-stakes environment.

Original blog: https://www.thehumandiver.com/blog/uncertainty-vs-predictable

Links: Risk vs Uncertainty: http://www.mindtherisk.com/literature/67-risk-savvy-by-gerd-gigerenzer

Thinking, Fast and Slow: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow

Blog about the Dunning Kruger effect: https://www.thehumandiver.com/blog/incompetent-and-unaware-you-don-t-know-what-you-don-t-know

Blog about biases: https://www.humaninthesystem.co.uk/blog/i-am-biased-you-are-biased-we-are-all-biased

Tags: English, Decision Making, Gareth Lock, Risk

Det här avsnittet är hämtat från ett öppet RSS-flöde och publiceras inte av Podme. Det kan innehålla reklam.

Avsnitt(296)

SH296: When 'I'm Fine' Isn't True: Speaking Up and Ending the Dive

SH296: When 'I'm Fine' Isn't True: Speaking Up and Ending the Dive

This episode explores a diving incident where nothing officially “went wrong,” yet a series of small decisions and social pressures nearly led to tragedy. A newer CCR diver and his wife joined more ex...

15 Juli 13min

SH295: Four Ways We Talk About 'Human Factors' in Diving

SH295: Four Ways We Talk About 'Human Factors' in Diving

This episode explores what people really mean when they talk about “human factors” in diving—and why the term can sometimes create more confusion than clarity. It looks at four different ways the phra...

11 Juli 11min

SH294: Clickbait, trolls and comments. How dive incident posts can teach us — if we let them

SH294: Clickbait, trolls and comments. How dive incident posts can teach us — if we let them

Discussions about diving incidents on social media often follow a predictable pattern: a short, simplified post describes what happened, and comments quickly focus on blaming the individual involved, ...

8 Juli 13min

SH293: Why does nothing change? Why do the same failures keep happening?

SH293: Why does nothing change? Why do the same failures keep happening?

Over the past decade, diving fatalities have remained stubbornly consistent despite better equipment, more training, and growing participation, suggesting the problem isn’t just technical or individua...

4 Juli 22min

SH292: Learning or Blaming: The Choice the Diving Industry Needs to Make. Part 3 of 3.

SH292: Learning or Blaming: The Choice the Diving Industry Needs to Make. Part 3 of 3.

This final blog explores what the research means and how the diving community can realistically improve learning and safety. It argues that the problem is not broken individuals but a system that quie...

1 Juli 14min

SH291: What the Data Told Us: Fear, Trust, and the Stories That Never Get Told. Part 2 of 3.

SH291: What the Data Told Us: Fear, Trust, and the Stories That Never Get Told. Part 2 of 3.

This blog explains how a mixed-methods study explored why divers struggle to share honest, learning-focused stories about incidents. Using a large international survey, focus groups, and expert interv...

27 Juni 13min

SH290: What Happens Underwater, Stays Underwater — And That's a Problem. Part 1 of 3

SH290: What Happens Underwater, Stays Underwater — And That's a Problem. Part 1 of 3

This episode introduces the problem behind learning in diving safety, using the 2020 death of Linnea Mills to highlight how incidents are often caused by deeper system issues, not just individual mist...

24 Juni 12min

SH289: Chac Mool - Diving Deeper into a Triple Fatality with Human Factors

SH289: Chac Mool - Diving Deeper into a Triple Fatality with Human Factors

This episode examines a 2012 triple fatality at Cenote Chac Mool in Mexico using a Human Factors approach, showing how accidents are rarely caused by a single mistake but by a combination of small, in...

20 Juni 24min

Populärt inom Utbildning

historiepodden-se
det-skaver
rss-bara-en-till-om-missbruk-medberoende-2
nu-blir-det-historia
harrisons-dramatiska-historia
not-fanny-anymore
allt-du-velat-veta
johannes-hansen-podcast
rss-viktmedicinpodden
roda-vita-rosen
sektledare
i-vantan-pa-katastrofen
rikatillsammans-om-privatekonomi-rikedom-i-livet
sa-in-i-sjalen
sex-pa-riktigt-med-marika-smith
rss-basta-livet
rss-traningsklubben
rss-max-tant-med-max-villman
rss-dr-bjorklund
vi-gar-till-historien