EP 148: Simulation Is Not Estimation - rethinking uncertainty in mining

In this episode of Fresh Thinking, Ian Glacken (Executive Consultant) and Dr Gregory Zhang (Senior Consultant) discuss one of the most important topics in modern resource modelling: uncertainty.

From the long-standing debate of simulation vs estimation, to the growing focus on geological uncertainty and hierarchical truncated plurigaussian simulation, this episode explores where the mining industry stands — and where it still needs to improve.

⏱ Key Topics
00:00 – Introduction: Simulation in mining and why uncertainty matters
01:18 – Simulation vs estimation: what's the real difference?
02:16 – The "space of uncertainty": grade, geology, parameters and planning
03:34 – Are we misleading stakeholders by ignoring uncertainty?
05:34 – Has grade uncertainty been solved? Two-point vs multipoint simulation
06:39 – Data uncertainty: blast holes, nugget effect and sampling quality
07:30 – Parameter uncertainty and spatial bootstrapping
09:43 – Geological uncertainty: why it's fundamentally different
10:44 – Plurigaussian and hierarchical truncated plurigaussian simulation (HTPGS)
12:51 – Industry adoption and emerging trends
13:08 – The "holy grail" of a comprehensive uncertainty model
14:47 – Digital twins and the future of integrated uncertainty modelling

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If you would like to contact Ian Glacken and Dr Gregory Zhang: contact@snowdenoptiro.com

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Snowden Optiro:
Snowden Optiro is a resources consulting and advisory group that provides independent advice, consulting and training to mining and exploration companies, their advisors and investors. We help mine developers to advance their projects, mining companies to improve their operations and their professionals, and investors to de-risk their investments by the provision of quality advice, training and software in the field of Mineral Resources and Mineral/Ore Reserves.

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#Mining #ResourceModelling #Geostatistics #Simulation #Geology #MiningEngineering