SI388: Peak Bubble? Why Markets Feel Different in 2026 ft. Mark Rzepczynski & Alan Dunne

Today Alan and Mark step back from the noise to examine a market environment that feels subtly but meaningfully different. From AI euphoria giving way to harder questions, to gold’s steady rise and a surprising divergence between US and emerging market inflation, the conversation centers on rotation, uncertainty, and shifting assumptions about safety. They explore whether Treasuries still anchor portfolios the way they once did, how fiscal pressures could reshape monetary policy, and why regime thinking matters for systematic investors. Beneath it all is a reminder that correlations change, narratives evolve, and adaptability remains the most durable edge in uncertain markets.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction & market check-in

02:52 – February performance: CTAs, trend following & commodities

04:53 – Peak bubble? AI, metals & speculative excess

07:10 – Gold demand, central banks & safe-haven flows

10:40 – The AI narrative shift & tech repricing

13:22 – Global rotation: US vs Europe & emerging markets

15:22 – EM inflation now lower than US — why it matters

21:48 – Why macro still matters (regime thinking vs stock picking)

31:49 – Fiscal vs monetary dominance explained

41:59 – $700B in Treasury issuance — scale of the debt machine

44:51 – Inflation, asset bubbles & fiscal theory

56:45 – Machine learning, regime shifts & why trend following survives

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2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

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