From 'Baker Briefing': Mexico’s Cartels, Violence, and the Rule of Law After the Fall of El Mencho

The February 22, 2026 death of cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera, head of Mexico’s powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), has reignited debate about security, governance, and the strength of Mexico’s organized crime institutions. In the days following the operation, cartel-linked violence spread across multiple states — underscoring both the reach of organized crime and the risks of confronting it.

Tony Payan, director of the Baker Institute’s Claudio X. González Center for the United States and Mexico, joins Ambassador David Satterfield to examine what Oseguera’s death could mean for Mexico’s fight against organized crime and the evolving role of the United States in that effort.

They discuss the extent of U.S. involvement and coordination in the operation, the political and security pressures facing President Claudia Sheinbaum as she intensifies the government’s campaign against cartels, and what this moment may signal for the future of U.S.–Mexico security cooperation. At the center of the conversation is a critical question: Will this operation strengthen the rule of law in Mexico — or simply trigger another cycle of violence?

This conversation was recorded on February 26, 2026

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Mentioned in this episode:

Tony Payan, https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan

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