Iran war spurs economic uncertainty for auto finance industry

The auto finance industry continues to navigate heightened economic uncertainty as the Iran war drives oil prices higher, adding pressure to consumers already facing elevated vehicle prices and borrowing costs.

Crude oil prices surged above $100 per barrel to end last week amid fears of supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, according to market researcher Energy Aspects’ data. The spike, which continued into today, pushed U.S. gasoline prices higher and increased volatility across financial markets.

Higher fuel prices are adding to affordability challenges that have defined the auto market for much of the past year. The average new-vehicle transaction was $49,353 in February, while the average monthly payment for a new vehicle climbed to around $767, according to Kelley Blue Book data.

Despite those pressures, credit activity remains steady. Subprime borrowers accounted for 15.3% of all vehicle loans in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from 14.5% a year earlier, as lenders seek to balance growth with risk management.

At the same time, tax refunds are providing a temporary boost in demand, with the average refund expected to reach $3,742. Some lenders have reported 10% to 15% more loan applications than expected in the early weeks of tax filing.

Meanwhile, capital markets remained active even as political tensions due to the Iran war widened credit spreads. Issuers continued to tap the asset-backed securities market, including Carvana, which issued a $1.1 billion prime auto ABS transaction and several securitizations by lenders seeking diversified funding.

In this episode of “Weekly Wrap,” Auto Finance News Editor Amanda Harris, Deputy Editor Johnnie Martinez II, Senior Associate Editor Truth Headlam and Associate Editor Aidan Bush discuss top trends across macroeconomic dynamics, affordability, funding and powersports lending for the week ended March 13.