Ep. 51 - Ukraine War, Iran Conflict, and Why Russia Remains a Threat w/Amb. John Herbst

This episode of Peace and Power Ukraine examines how the escalating conflict with Iran is reshaping global dynamics — and what it means for Ukraine, Russia, and U.S. national security.

Host Gary Marx is joined by Ambassador John Herbst, Senior Director of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, for a wide-ranging discussion on the state of the war in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical landscape.

Herbst explains why Ukraine is not losing the war — and why it ultimately wins as long as Western support remains steady. He breaks down the critical differences between Russian and Ukrainian society, arguing that Ukraine’s will to fight and innovate gives it a long-term advantage despite Russia’s larger population and economy.

The conversation also explores how the emerging conflict with Iran is impacting the war in Ukraine. Rising energy prices, diverted U.S. resources, and shifting global attention may provide short-term benefits to Russia — but Herbst argues there are also long-term risks for Putin, including Ukraine’s rapidly expanding drone capabilities and new defense partnerships with Western and Gulf allies.

The discussion also covers:
• Why Russia remains a primary adversary to the United States
• The strategic implications of Russia providing intelligence support to Iran
• How Ukraine’s drone warfare and defense innovation are reshaping modern conflict
• The risks of reduced U.S. weapons flows to Ukraine due to Middle East operations
• Why a Ukrainian victory does not require reclaiming all occupied territory
• The importance of Western military aid, intelligence sharing, and frozen Russian assets
• How historical misunderstandings of Ukraine have shaped flawed policy decisions

Herbst argues that supporting Ukraine is not charity — it is a core U.S. national security interest — and that a Russian victory would create a far more dangerous global environment for the United States and its allies.

00:00 — Introduction and global context: Iran war and Ukraine implications
00:58 — Ambassador John Herbst joins the podcast
02:34 — Herbst’s background and role at the Atlantic Council
04:24 — Early interest in diplomacy and foreign policy
06:33 — First experiences in Ukraine and post-Soviet policy
07:53 — Ukrainian identity vs Russian imperial narrative
09:44 — Is Ukraine winning the war?
11:04 — Why Ukraine will win with sustained Western support
13:30 — Iran conflict: short-term benefits for Russia
14:51 — Ukraine’s drone advantage and global defense impact
16:14 — Russia providing intelligence support to Iran
17:24 — U.S. response and policy frustrations
18:10 — Sanctions, oil prices, and global economic effects
20:12 — Weapons supply risks and U.S. priorities
21:25 — Ukraine’s growing domestic weapons capabilities
22:14 — Why Russia is a greater long-term threat than Iran
22:40 — Ukraine’s military value to global allies
23:28 — Putin’s strategic position and battlefield realities
25:04 — Iran war outcomes and global implications
27:46 — Conditions on the ground in Ukraine and resilience
29:03 — Final message: why Ukraine matters to U.S. national security

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