Ep. 52 - How Ukraine, Iran, and China Are Reshaping the Global Balance of Power w/Daniel Twining

In this episode of Peace and Power Ukraine, host Gary Marx speaks with Dr. Dan Twining, President of the International Republican Institute (IRI), for a wide-ranging discussion on global geopolitics, democratic resilience, and the interconnected threats posed by authoritarian regimes.

The conversation begins with Twining’s perspective from the Munich Security Conference, where rising tensions across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia highlight an increasingly unstable global environment. He explains how conflicts involving Russia, Iran, and China are not isolated crises, but part of a broader strategic competition shaping the future of the international order.

Twining outlines the mission of the International Republican Institute and its work in over 100 countries to strengthen democratic institutions, support political participation, and counter authoritarian influence. He argues that investing in democratic governance abroad is not just a values-based effort — it is a core national security strategy that helps prevent conflict, instability, and global crises before they escalate.

The discussion also explores:
• How Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are forming an “axis of autocracies”
• Why Ukraine’s democratic institutions have strengthened its ability to resist Russia
• The role of U.S. soft power, diplomacy, and democracy promotion in global stability
• Lessons from the Cold War and the legacy of leaders like Jeane Kirkpatrick
• The risks of isolationism and why U.S. global engagement remains essential
• How China is expanding influence through corruption, coercion, and economic leverage
• Why frontline democracies like Ukraine are critical to U.S. national security
• The growing importance of women, youth, and local governance in democratic resilience

Twining also addresses current developments in the Ukraine war, including Russian battlefield losses, domestic instability inside Russia, and the Kremlin’s use of internet blackouts to control information and suppress dissent. He argues that Ukraine has already achieved a strategic victory by surviving and holding off Russia’s invasion, while Putin’s long-term position continues to weaken.

The conversation concludes with a broader warning: global conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Asia are increasingly interconnected, and the United States must remain engaged with allies to counter authoritarian aggression and preserve a free and open international system.

00:00 — Introduction and global context: Ukraine, Iran, and rising tensions
01:09 — Dr. Dan Twining joins the podcast and background
02:30 — Munich Security Conference and global geopolitical trends
04:16 — IRI’s mission and global democracy work
06:02 — Soft power vs military power in U.S. strategy
07:00 — Russia, IRI, and honoring Kara-Murza
08:46 — Jeane Kirkpatrick and Cold War lessons
10:19 — Isolationism vs global engagement debate
12:32 — China’s global influence and authoritarian competition
14:11 — Supporting democracy movements around the world
15:31 — IRI’s work in Ukraine and democratic resilience
17:03 — Local governance and anti-corruption efforts in Ukraine
18:03 — Ukraine supporting allies in the Middle East
19:19 — Why Ukraine is now a security provider
20:35 — NATO expansion and strategic implications
22:25 — Global demand for U.S. leadership and engagement
23:34 — Is Ukraine winning the war?
24:02 — Russia’s long-term decline and strategic mistakes
24:24 — Internet blackouts and internal pressure on Putin
25:35 — Russian propaganda vs reality on the ground
26:50 — Final message: unity, China threat, and global stakes

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