Fabian Hoffmann on Russia's Missile Crisis, Europe's Failure & Striking Russian Infrastructure

In this episode of Ukrainapodden, we dive into the high-tech and high-stakes world of missile warfare. Host Tormod Malvin Sæther welcomes Fabian Hoffmann, a Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Defense University College and an expert on missile systems, to analyze the current state of the battlefield in 2026.

The primary focus is Ukraine’s evolving ability to conduct deep strikes against Russian infrastructure. We examine the campaign against Russian oil refineries and how Ukraine exploits gaps in the Russian air defense network. Hoffmann explains the critical technical distinctions between cheap long-range drones and advanced cruise missiles, providing a candid assessment of the Ukrainian company Firepoint. Are they truly producing three «Flamingo» missiles a day, or is the rhetoric outpacing reality?

We also discuss Russia's industrial struggles. Faced with labor shortages and limited raw materials like solid rocket fuel, the Kremlin must make impossible trade-offs between artillery shells and advanced interceptors like the Pantsir. Furthermore, we explore reports of the diminishing accuracy of Iskander missiles—could this be a direct consequence of Ukrainian strikes on production facilities in Bryansk?

Geopolitics takes center stage as we look at how Ukraine leverages its operational drone expertise to secure support and Patriot interceptors from Gulf nations. Finally, Hoffmann delivers a sharp critique of Norwegian and European defense policy. While nations in Asia and the US are doubling down on long-range weapons, Europe remains caught in a «Sonderweg» of sluggish procurement. Are we prepared to deter Russia in the coming years?

Interested to learn more? Here is Hoffmann's Substack: https://missilematters.substack.com/

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