Markets, Rate Hikes, and Student Loans – Ep. 60
* The NASDAQ 5,000 party ended nearly the day it began * NASDAQ down more than 80 points * Dow Jones down 332 points * Outside reversal week a reliable pattern signaling a downturn * The market believes optimistic non-farm payrolls will trigger Fed rate hike * Dollar hitting new highs * Janet Yellen is the victim of too much success, allowing for rate hike assumptions * All data other than jobs numbers are weak * If we continue along this path, we are heading toward recession * Stock market and real estate bear markets will trigger QE4 * Stock market will drop dramatically if rate hike notion is not dispelled * Obama Administration floating trial balloon on student loan debt discharge for bankruptcy * This moral hazard would force education prices even higher Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
11 Mars 201517min
U.S. Economy Not Nearly as Strong as Payrolls Suggest – Ep. 59
* February Non-Farm Payrolls Number - 295,000 jobs * Unemployment down 5.5% * Analysts were expecting a miss * Dollar at a new high * Productivity dropped 2.2% * Factory orders fell for the 6th consecutive month * Economic data points only seen during recessions * The Dow closed down - NASDAQ down more * Labor force participation rate is down * Average hourly earnings flat * Number of people not in the labor force at an all-time high * Increase in jobs represents people working more than one jobs * 45% of the 295,000 jobs are assumed to have been created by optimistic government statisticians * Disconnect between the weak GDP and the jobs numbers * Consumer credit declined, indicating the consumer is struggling * It's a good time to take advantage of the strong dollar and invest abroad Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
7 Mars 201544min
Polish Central Bank Joins 2015 Rate Cutting Party – Ep. 58
* Poland became the 21st country to lower interest rates this year * New record low to 1.5% * Polish economy is strongest in three years * Growing faster than the U.S. economy * Policy conundrum: what is inflation target? * Low inflation stimulating Polish economy * Yet Central Bankers look to illogical Keynesian textbooks * Where is the evidence that deflation is undermining the economy? * There is no magical point where a good thing becomes a bad thing * If they overcompensate and weaken the economy, they will be raising interest rates on an already weak economy * Poland could afford to raise rates, however, if this policy fails, because their debt is low * U.S. debt is so high, we can't afford to raise rates in order to support the dollar * When inflation picks up in the world and other central banks raise rates, the dollar will decline * The Fed will be unable to curb inflation because we can't afford to service our debt * Ultimately this will precipitate a currency crisis when it becomes apparent that the Fed has run out of options Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
5 Mars 201521min
This Time It Is Different – It’s Worse – Ep. 57
* First trading day of march - NASDAQ closed above 5000 for the first time in 15 years * Each time the market goes up with crazy valuations, pundits say, "This time it's different." * This time the Fed is under more pressure to create the illusion of prosperity * Today's rally came against the backdrop of weak economic data * The only way this bubble won't burst is if the Fed intervenes with more stimulus * Bubbles force you to make an important decision: * Look like a fool before they pop, or look like a fool after they pop * It doesn't matter how much money you make, it's how much money you keep Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
3 Mars 201526min
Shocking Admission & Denial from Alan Greenspan
* Government released revised estimate for Q4 GDP * Initial estimate was 2.6; revised down to 2.2 * Economic growth dipped from 5% in Q3 to 2.18% in Q4 * PMI was expecting 58.7 but plunged to 45.8, indicating contraction * Alan Greenspan commented that the U.S. economy is weak * Greenspan cites declining U.S. productivity * Points to declining gross domestic savings brought on by entitlement programs * Greenspan refuses to blame Fed policy for productivity and savings declines * He predicts continued low interests rates to create the illusion of wealth * In 1966, Alan Greenspan blamed the Fed and their cheap money policies for stock market bubble and economic imbalances * Today, he still believes this to be true, but no longer cares about the consequences of reckless economic policy * The Fed's job now is to just do whatever it takes to postpone the pain * Inflating bubbles with the certain knowledge that the outcome will be bad, while pretending that they will eventually raise rates Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
28 Feb 201523min
Fed Might Begin Thinking About Raising Rates at Some Point – Ep. 56
* Janet Yellen's prepared remarks were the most dovish yet * If economy is improving, why do we still need "a high degree of accommodation?" * There is still room for "substantial improvement in the labor market" * Any modification of guidance will not necessarily indicate rate increase * Yellen states lower energy prices is positive for the economy, yet looks for higher inflation * The Fed says outlook is data dependent and the data is getting worse Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
26 Feb 201530min
Hollywood Hypocrisy and Gender Pay Gap Fiction – Ep. 55
* Patricia Arquette claims that there is a still an unfair gender wage gap in the labor market * If that were true, all employers - male and female - would hire women first, because they are more cost effective employees * But they don't * Women who choose to balance family with career often accept lower-paying positions * Women do not make less money for the same work * They make less money for different work * In Hollywood, youth is an asset for women - for men, not as much. * Male action movie stars can earn more because action movies earn more. * Liberal spin promotes a government "solution" for a free market system that is working Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
24 Feb 201529min
Fed’s Open Mouth Operations Having Complications – Ep. 54
* Two days of bad economic news this shortened week * The Fed still says the economy is recovering * Recent FOMC minutes maintains pretense they can raise interest rates * FOMC members are worried about raising rates "too soon" * The Fed is worried about how to remove the word "patient" from communications * How confident can the Fed be in the "recovery" if they still fear raising interest rates? * The "recovery" was just a bubble masquerading as a recovery * If we had a real recovery the Fed could have already raised rates * They are now concerned about weakness overseas * They are worried about a strong dollar * They expressed concerns about the risks of lower oil prices * Low inflation causes concerns * The Fed is clearly paying attention to the negative economic news * Empire State Manufacturing down * Home Builder Confidence at 4-month low * Industrial production weak * PPI number declined .8 * Eventually the economic numbers will force the Fed to acknowledge weakness and resume stimulus Our Sponsors: * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
19 Feb 201520min
