U.S. Economy Teetering on the Brink of Recession – Ep 82

U.S. Economy Teetering on the Brink of Recession – Ep 82


* Another week and another round of bad economic news
* Wall Street may be finally paying attention
* JOLT Report projected at 5.158 million; came in at 4.994 million
* April Retail Sales expected to rise .2%; came in flat
* X Automobiles expected an increase of .5, actual number was .1
* Beneath the surface there was a collapse in retail sales in all areas except groceries
* Weakest year over year increase in retail sales since 2009
* Department Store Sales experienced the biggest drop since January 2014
* A look beneath the headlines of the jobs numbers reveals that the jobs are not good jobs
* The Birth/Death Model assumption added 175,000 jobs to the last jobs report
* These numbers came from a biased source
* The fact that there is no spending is evidence that the job market is not as robust as the numbers claim
* Jobs numbers can be made up but retail sales can't
* Wall Street is surprised that we have weak data because they believe we are experiencing job growth
* March Business Inventories up .1% versus expectation of .2%
* February Business Inventories was revised down from .3% to .2%
* I estimate that Q1 GDP will contract by greater than 1%
* The Atlanta Fed just revised down their Q2 GDP estimate to .7, which would indicate the U.S. economy contracted for the first half of the year
* The Fed is still looking for 3% rise in GDP for 2015, which would mean we would need growth of 6% for the last half of the year
* It is more likely that we will get a negative number again for Q2
* Two consecutive contracting quarters will indicate an official recession
* If we are in a recession, the Fed will not raise rates and is more likely to respond with stimulus
* I predicted that a pause in QE3 would trigger another recession
* When the Fed is unable to raise rates to stimulate the economy, the only trick they will have up their sleeve will be QE4
* When that happens, the moves we saw today in the FOREX and Precious Metals markets will look tame by comparison
* The dollar has already broken its uptrend
* Europe, with the exception of Greece is experiencing growth in GDP, and Great Britain is doing better than Europe, because they shrunk their government instead of applying stimulus
* What we are going to get next is old-fashioned Keynesian, pump-priming stimulus
* Will that give us economic growth? Not a chance.
* The last three rounds of QE didn't give us economic growth and neither will the next one
* It may blow more air into the stock market bubble, but the air is going to come out of the dollar bubble even faster
* Where is the Fed's balance sheet going to be at the end of QE4? It is 4.5 trillion right now.
* How can anyone possibly believe Janet Yellen when she says she is going to shrink the balance sheet?
* Are creditors are going to get wise and there is going to be a run on the dollar
* You can see the beginnings of it today
* The dollar was down across the board
* Gold was back to about $1,250; every time it gets to this level it gets knocked down by short-sellers, but eventually they are going to have to give up
* All this bad economic data is going to sink in
* It is not the weather
* The market still has to adjust for the reality that the economy is really weak
* The Fed will not admit that QE didn't work, so in the face of recession they will have to do it again
Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Avsnitt(1086)

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28 * This holiday shoppers had more shopping hours * 5% less traffic than last year * 11% less money spent than last year * The economy can't support robust holiday sales * Despite big drop in gas prices * Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

1 Dec 201424min

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27 * Oil and gold stocks down * OPEC announced no decline in oil production * Crude trading below $66/barrel * Bump to the Dollar * Mining sector takes a hit * Gold down * A no vote on Swiss Gold initiative bullish for gold Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

30 Nov 201435min

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26 Missing expectations on all economic indicators * Chicago Fed index .14 * PMI flash services 56.3 * Dallas Fed Manufacturing 10.5 * Case Shiller Index slows down to 4.9% * Consumer Confidence number down to 88.7M * Oil prices continue to fall * Big drop in Richmond Fed 75% below estimate * Optimism fueled by debt, consumption and bubbles Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Nov 201428min

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict: Episode 25A * Riots are not the caused by the Grand Jury * The Grand Jury's statement did not address Michael Brown's culpability * All evidence points to officer's innocence * Media fears addressing Michael Brown's violent behavior * Young men are not raised to respect the law * This will happen again because there is no recourse to violence and false witness< Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman runs premature victory lap: Episode 24A * Assumes that money-printing works because there is "no inflation" * Krugman's cure for the stock market bubble was the real estate bubble * The test is when the printing presses stop Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

Big News out of the Central Banks * U.S. FOMC * Primary concern - inflation is too low * no policy to "correct" the problem * Preparing markets for additional stimulus * Japanese Central Bank Doublespeak * Japanese sales tax hike postponed * Continued calls for more inflation * Why is sales tax is different than inflation? * Euro Decline * Mandating "stability" by increasing inflation? * Chinese Central Bank * Cut interest rate to 5.6% * Money flows to the dollar as a hedge because the market believes the Fed * Gold has not dropped much against the dollar and has risen against other currencies Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Nov 201431min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

Episode 23: Going to Extreme to Prove a Point: Two articles about Peter Schiff: * MarketWatch - writer refused to address corrections before going to print except for my official title - The point of my forecasts is to help people avoid problems ahead of time - I did not call for a stock market crash; I predicted QE4 - The Fed can prevent a Dollar Crisis - I said hyperinflation is unlikely, but a possibility * New Republic - Writer quotes selectively from a Reason article to prove his own spin - Points to the CPI to refute real inflation - The price of a Big Mac mirrored the CPI until 2002 - Now price of Big Mac rises 2x as fast as CPI - This illustrates how the government measures inflation Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Nov 201427min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

Episode 22: Lessons from the Michael Brown Case: * Don't rob a convenience store. * Don't rob a convenience store while high. * Don't be conspicuous after robbing a convenience store while high. * If a policeman then stops you, obey the policeman. * Do not try to take the policeman's gun away from him. * But if you get shot in the hand going for the gun and run away, do not charge the policeman when he says, "freeze!" * The political narrative hides the real problem: unhealthy family life. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

20 Nov 201421min

Populärt inom Business & ekonomi

badfluence
framgangspodden
varvet
rss-jossan-nina
uppgang-och-fall
rss-svart-marknad
lastbilspodden
rss-borsens-finest
affarsvarlden
avanzapodden
fill-or-kill
rss-en-rik-historia
24fragor
rss-inga-dumma-fragor-om-pengar
rss-kort-lang-analyspodden-fran-di
borsmorgon
kapitalet-en-podd-om-ekonomi
rss-dagen-med-di
bathina-en-podcast
tabberaset