Fed Leaks, Fast Food, Housing & Gold – Ep.98

Fed Leaks, Fast Food, Housing & Gold – Ep.98


* The Dow Jones had its worst week since January - closed the week at 17,568, down 518 points
* Friday's drop alone accounted for 163 points
* Capital One had a huge earnings miss and announced big layoffs
* Big losses on bad debt
* All the economic data from this year has been negative
* There is no precedent for the Fed to raise rates when all economic indicators are down
* Normally The Fed stimulates when the economy is down
* The most interesting economic news on Friday was a leak from the Federal Reserve
* Fed employees' internal projections are way below the Fed's public estimates
* Projections go all the way out to 2020 and can only amount to guesses
* The document is posted on my Facebook page
* Real GDP: 2015: 2.31 way below the official forecast but still overly optimistic
* Real GDP for 2016: 2.38 - 2017: 2.17 - 2018:1.76 - 2019:1.75 - 2020:1.74
* This shows an average of under 2% for the next 5 years
* If the Fed believes its staff's estimates, why would they be talking about raising rates?
* Inflation numbers are even more difficult to believe:
* 2015: 1.15 - 2016: 1.54 - 2017:1.76 - 2018:1.89 - 2019: 1.92 - 2020: 1.94
* How can they possibly know? It looks like they just picked numbers somewhere below 2%
* They even have the core PCE
* 2015: 1.33 - 2016: 1.52 - 2017: 1.78 - 2018: 1.9 - 2019: 1.92 - 2020: 1.94
* Fed Funds Numbers:
* 2015: .35%(implies one rate hike) - 2016: 1.26% - 2017: 2.12% - 2018: 2.8% - 2019: 3.1% - 202 : 3.34%
* After 5 years of tightening rates would still be at historically low levels
* This indicates how little confidence the Fed has in the economy
* They predict the yield on the 10-year note to rise 2.63% in 2015 up to 4.2 in 5 years
* One of the most ridiculous assumptions is unemployment: 2015: 5.34% - 2016: 5.24% - 2017: 5.18 - 2018: 5.15 - 2019: 5.15 - 2020: 5.16
* These are all just guesses. How do they know?
* This shows by the Fed's own estimates that employment is not expected to improve
* Th
* The Fed expects the economy to grow even slower over the next 5 years than during the preceding 5 years
* The Fed is either ignoring staff's numbers to paint a rosy picture or they don't trust their own staff
* I think the market can't handle the truth and that may have been the reason for Friday'd drop in the Dow
* The only thing that will stop the market from going down is some talk from Janet Yellen to dial back the rate hikes and to open the door to QE4
* Another number that came out on Friday which confirms the slowdown in the economy is the new home sales
* The current rise in new home sales is primarily for those trying to beat the Fed
* June's number was awful: 482,000 against an expectation of 550,000
* The last 2 month's estimates were revised down
* The July plunge was the biggest number since November of 2014, and the biggest miss in a year
* There is also an interesting statistic on new homes: prices are continuing to rise
* It now requires 10 times your salary to buy a new home
* In the 1950's it took 2 times a year's salary to buy a new home
* All the government spending on "affordable housing" has managed to increase the cost of a home from twice a worker's salary to ten times a worker's salary
* That is a 500% increase - that is far beyond failure
* This also illustrates how much our standard of living has fallen
* New York State passed a minimum wage of $15/hr, which applies to chains of over 30 restaurants
* Because employers cannot be forced to pay wages higher than workers' productivity allows, employers will be forced to fire some employees and will seek automation to replace unskilled workers.
Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Avsnitt(1081)

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

Big News out of the Central Banks * U.S. FOMC * Primary concern - inflation is too low * no policy to "correct" the problem * Preparing markets for additional stimulus * Japanese Central Bank Doublespeak * Japanese sales tax hike postponed * Continued calls for more inflation * Why is sales tax is different than inflation? * Euro Decline * Mandating "stability" by increasing inflation? * Chinese Central Bank * Cut interest rate to 5.6% * Money flows to the dollar as a hedge because the market believes the Fed * Gold has not dropped much against the dollar and has risen against other currencies Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Nov 201431min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

Episode 23: Going to Extreme to Prove a Point: Two articles about Peter Schiff: * MarketWatch - writer refused to address corrections before going to print except for my official title - The point of my forecasts is to help people avoid problems ahead of time - I did not call for a stock market crash; I predicted QE4 - The Fed can prevent a Dollar Crisis - I said hyperinflation is unlikely, but a possibility * New Republic - Writer quotes selectively from a Reason article to prove his own spin - Points to the CPI to refute real inflation - The price of a Big Mac mirrored the CPI until 2002 - Now price of Big Mac rises 2x as fast as CPI - This illustrates how the government measures inflation Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Nov 201427min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

Episode 22: Lessons from the Michael Brown Case: * Don't rob a convenience store. * Don't rob a convenience store while high. * Don't be conspicuous after robbing a convenience store while high. * If a policeman then stops you, obey the policeman. * Do not try to take the policeman's gun away from him. * But if you get shot in the hand going for the gun and run away, do not charge the policeman when he says, "freeze!" * The political narrative hides the real problem: unhealthy family life. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

20 Nov 201421min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 21

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 21

Episode 21: BoJ Seems to relieve Consumers' Struggle With Rising Prices by Creating More Inflation * Investors & Economists shocked to learn that Japan is officially in recession * Instead of a 2.1 rebound, there were back to back declines - a huge miss. * Economists cry "More Stimulus!" * Abe admits rising prices hurt the economy, contrary to inflation "Goal" * The theory that rising prices stimulate the economy is proving wrong in Japan, Russia and the U.S. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Nov 201426min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 20

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 20

Episode 20: Explosive Daily Upside Reversal in Gold Portends Potential Bottom * Weekly jobless claims higher than expected * Fewer people in the workforce * Job openings declining * Consumer sentiment survey at 7-year high? * false confidence in the economy due to oil prices * QE4 will be the mother of all QE * Gold and silver market reversal on Friday * Silver stocks up $4% * Gold stocks were up 6% Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Nov 201420min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 19

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 19

Episode 19: Low-Paying Jobs And Student Debt Undermining Marriage * There are more single Americans than ever * Job quality and debt are disincentive to marriage * Government policy promotes generations of single mothers * Two out of every five mothers are single * If the economy is getting better, why is this happening? Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Nov 201414min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 18

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 18

Episode 18 Synopsis * Obamacare architect Jonathan Gruber admits fraud promoting Obamacare: * "They proposed it and that passed, because the American people are too stupid to understand the difference." * Administration's argument to Supreme Court about constitutionality of Exchanges claims "typo" * The average American may not be able to make decisions for others, but they know what is best for themselves Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Nov 201420min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 17

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 17

Episode 17 Synopsis * Japanese yen fell to 7-year low * A result of Abenomics * Speculation that planned increase of sales will be delayed * price moving with strength of dollar * Chinese Yuan up vs Yen and euro * Next few months may expose Fed's false narrativ Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Nov 201410min

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