Upon What Data Does the Fed Depend? – Ep. 100

Upon What Data Does the Fed Depend? – Ep. 100


* This is my 100th Podcast
* This new format allows for timely analysis when is is most convenient for me and for you, the listener
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* Today a bombshell was dropped on the labor markets on Friday in the form of Employment Cost Index
* Measures the cost to employers: wages and benefits
* The expected increase was .6, but the actual number came in at just .2 for the quarter
* This the weakest number since 1982, since they began keeping records
* Janet Yellen has been saying that improvements in the labor market must precede a rate hike
* This is understood to mean wages, labor participation rate and full time vs part time jobs
* We're 0 for three, right now - all three are falling
* As soon as this number came out, they dollar sold hard
* But then, the dollar clawed its way back, and gold was down again - gold stocks got crushed - Why?
* Jon Hilsenrath, the chief economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, came out with an article, speaking for the Fed, stating that the Fed does not need wage growth to hike rates
* Really? The Fed is going out of its way to preserve the pretense that it can actually raise rates
* They are seeking the psychological effect of rate hikes without the real world damage of actual rate hikes
* If the Fed still believes it won't raise rates unless the labor market improves and they are taking wage hikes off the table, then what are they waiting for?
* The other two remaining criteria are still down
* Janet Yellen still says she's data dependent and all the data that she is depending on is negative
* The stock market looks very toppy - it looks like it will roll over and when it does the Fed will bring in the cavalry in the form of stimulus
* The Fed built the recovery on a stock market bubble and a real estate bubble
* Ben Bernanke's goal for 7 years was to create a "wealth effect" on assets that are now at risk - they are not going to let them collapse
* All of the data would argue for no rate hike in September
* Janet Yellen is implying, by talking about rate hikes, that she believes that the economy is going to improve, when all signs indicate the opposite
* Therefore traders are ignoring bad economic data because they trust that Janet Yellen believes the economy will improve soon
* Don't pay any attention to the man behind the curtain, because Janet Yellen says the bad news is not real
* We can all see the negative data, but no one wants to acknowledge it because Janet Yellen is not recognizing it publicly
* They buy the dollar, they sell gold and there is a dichotomy between those who don't own gold and have no ability to deliver it and are selling gold to those who don't actually want it - they are gambling on the price of gold
* The amount of gold being gambled is greater than ever before
* Sales for those who want to hold gold are skyrocketing - the mints are running out of supply
* We are running out of some of our silver
* Schiff Gold
* Our customers who buy gold and silver are not offering to sell - they are buying more
* They are reacting to lower prices
* On the other side of the coin, clients are reacting negatively to the high dollar weighing on the relative value of foreign stocks
Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Avsnitt(1081)

Fannie and Freddie Guarantee Bigger Losses

Fannie and Freddie Guarantee Bigger Losses

* U.S. Taxpayers will be forced to guarantee mortgages with 3% down * Qualifiers are low-income or have not owned a home for 3 years * Government is spinning this as "prudent" * Buyers have very little skin in the game * If real estate prices plummet, walking away is an easy choice Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Dec 201412min

Does Market Volatility Portend a Change of Trend? Ep. 30

Does Market Volatility Portend a Change of Trend? Ep. 30

* Stock market roller coaster ride this week * Chinese market plummets * Forex markets: Yen rallies after 7-year low * The Swiss may discourage the EU against QE * Unwarranted U.S.optimism as negative data is ignored * Gold and Silver strong despite bad press * Gold outperforming the Russel 2000 * Deficit in Manufactured Goods hit all-time high * China reports record trade surplus Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Dec 201420min

Draghi Said ECB Considered Buying Every Asset Except Gold: Ep. 29

Draghi Said ECB Considered Buying Every Asset Except Gold: Ep. 29

* What is the goal of the "Inflation Mandate? * What is the exact number of the mandate? * If the real mandate is "less than 2%" they're already there * The European economy is expecting another QE, but I don't expect it. * How they plan QE if they don't know what they are going to buy? * Draghi cites success of U.S. QE, but the Fed has not shrunk its balance sheet. * They discussed buying all assets except gold because this would highlight failure of QE Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Dec 201425min

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28 * This holiday shoppers had more shopping hours * 5% less traffic than last year * 11% less money spent than last year * The economy can't support robust holiday sales * Despite big drop in gas prices * Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

1 Dec 201424min

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27 * Oil and gold stocks down * OPEC announced no decline in oil production * Crude trading below $66/barrel * Bump to the Dollar * Mining sector takes a hit * Gold down * A no vote on Swiss Gold initiative bullish for gold Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

30 Nov 201435min

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26 Missing expectations on all economic indicators * Chicago Fed index .14 * PMI flash services 56.3 * Dallas Fed Manufacturing 10.5 * Case Shiller Index slows down to 4.9% * Consumer Confidence number down to 88.7M * Oil prices continue to fall * Big drop in Richmond Fed 75% below estimate * Optimism fueled by debt, consumption and bubbles Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Nov 201428min

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict: Episode 25A * Riots are not the caused by the Grand Jury * The Grand Jury's statement did not address Michael Brown's culpability * All evidence points to officer's innocence * Media fears addressing Michael Brown's violent behavior * Young men are not raised to respect the law * This will happen again because there is no recourse to violence and false witness< Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman runs premature victory lap: Episode 24A * Assumes that money-printing works because there is "no inflation" * Krugman's cure for the stock market bubble was the real estate bubble * The test is when the printing presses stop Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

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