Will She or Won’t She? Ep. 109

Will She or Won’t She? Ep. 109


* Tomorrow we have the most highly anticipated Fed meeting ever, but this will not be the last time I'll say this
* We'll also be anticipating October and December if the Fed does not raise interest rates in September
* The odds are they won't do it
* I put a Bloomberg story on my Facebook page: Yellen's former aid says a rate hike would be a serious error
* Why? The official target for the Fed Funds Rate now is at a range of 0 to .25 basis points
* The Fed is contemplating a rate of .25 which is the high end of the existing range
* If they decide to keep the rate at .25, all they've done is fixed the rate at the high end of the range
* This is not even a rate hike
* Why would this be a disaster?
* Isn't that an admission that the economy is fragile?
* When Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates to 1% after the dot com bubble and after Sept 11, people though, this is ridiculous!
* Now we are talking about raising rates to a quarter of that and it is considered a disaster
* What is going to change between September and October and October and December - unless they get worse
* The serious error is to prick the bubble economy
* The more serious error is for the Fed to raise rates and then admit that it was a mistake they lose credibility
* We're going into recession regardless
* If they raise rates, they will have to launch QE4 sooner
* Any rate hike will sow the seed of a rate cut
* On the topic of a recession, let's talk about the economic news we got today
* The first release we got was August Retail Sales
* A rise of .3 was expected and we got a gain of .2
* These are not great numbers
* The worse number of the day was Empire State Manufacturing: last month's horrible number was -14.92 the lowest since 2009
* Wall Street was looking for -.5
* September was -14.67; barely an improvement
* Back to back the worse numbers since the great recession
* The media barely reported on this number at all, but if it were good, it would have been in the headlines
* The Redbook Year over Year Same Store Sales Index has collapsed - right now it is at 1.3
* Previous years ranged between 3% and 5%
* Industrial Production was expected to fall by .2, but fell by .4
* Capacity Utilization dropped from 78 last month to 77.6
* Manufacturing output dropped as well to -.5
* Auto manufacturing had its biggest drop in 4 years
* I have been talking on this podcast about the Auto Bubble and we are getting more evidence that the bubble has burst
* The biggest decline in manufacturing in 4 years is pretty good evidence
* The fact that there is a huge inventory of unsold cars on dealers' lots is evidence that the market is saturated
* We got more news from business inventories: up .1 as expected
* Sales are also falling, so the inventory to sales ration is still 1.36, a notch below the record high from the '08 financial crisis
* Inventories have to come down a lot more because sales are not there
* They are not there because the economy is weak
* Earlier strong GDP growth was from inventory buildup
* All the evidence points to recession
* Employment numbers, which are theoretically good, are a lagging indicator
* All the leading indicators of the economy are flashing a warning
* Yet the media is ignoring the warnings and paying attention to Janet Yellen
* She is pretending the economy is strong so she can pretend to raise rates
* We need to allow the economy to go through that unfortunate crisis and allow the bubble economy to burst and the real economy to heal
* The Federal Reserve shot us up with all these monetary drugs so unfortunately we have to check into monetary rehab<... Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Avsnitt(1082)

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman runs premature victory lap: Episode 24A * Assumes that money-printing works because there is "no inflation" * Krugman's cure for the stock market bubble was the real estate bubble * The test is when the printing presses stop Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

Big News out of the Central Banks * U.S. FOMC * Primary concern - inflation is too low * no policy to "correct" the problem * Preparing markets for additional stimulus * Japanese Central Bank Doublespeak * Japanese sales tax hike postponed * Continued calls for more inflation * Why is sales tax is different than inflation? * Euro Decline * Mandating "stability" by increasing inflation? * Chinese Central Bank * Cut interest rate to 5.6% * Money flows to the dollar as a hedge because the market believes the Fed * Gold has not dropped much against the dollar and has risen against other currencies Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Nov 201431min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

Episode 23: Going to Extreme to Prove a Point: Two articles about Peter Schiff: * MarketWatch - writer refused to address corrections before going to print except for my official title - The point of my forecasts is to help people avoid problems ahead of time - I did not call for a stock market crash; I predicted QE4 - The Fed can prevent a Dollar Crisis - I said hyperinflation is unlikely, but a possibility * New Republic - Writer quotes selectively from a Reason article to prove his own spin - Points to the CPI to refute real inflation - The price of a Big Mac mirrored the CPI until 2002 - Now price of Big Mac rises 2x as fast as CPI - This illustrates how the government measures inflation Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Nov 201427min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

Episode 22: Lessons from the Michael Brown Case: * Don't rob a convenience store. * Don't rob a convenience store while high. * Don't be conspicuous after robbing a convenience store while high. * If a policeman then stops you, obey the policeman. * Do not try to take the policeman's gun away from him. * But if you get shot in the hand going for the gun and run away, do not charge the policeman when he says, "freeze!" * The political narrative hides the real problem: unhealthy family life. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

20 Nov 201421min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 21

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 21

Episode 21: BoJ Seems to relieve Consumers' Struggle With Rising Prices by Creating More Inflation * Investors & Economists shocked to learn that Japan is officially in recession * Instead of a 2.1 rebound, there were back to back declines - a huge miss. * Economists cry "More Stimulus!" * Abe admits rising prices hurt the economy, contrary to inflation "Goal" * The theory that rising prices stimulate the economy is proving wrong in Japan, Russia and the U.S. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Nov 201426min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 20

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 20

Episode 20: Explosive Daily Upside Reversal in Gold Portends Potential Bottom * Weekly jobless claims higher than expected * Fewer people in the workforce * Job openings declining * Consumer sentiment survey at 7-year high? * false confidence in the economy due to oil prices * QE4 will be the mother of all QE * Gold and silver market reversal on Friday * Silver stocks up $4% * Gold stocks were up 6% Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Nov 201420min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 19

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 19

Episode 19: Low-Paying Jobs And Student Debt Undermining Marriage * There are more single Americans than ever * Job quality and debt are disincentive to marriage * Government policy promotes generations of single mothers * Two out of every five mothers are single * If the economy is getting better, why is this happening? Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Nov 201414min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 18

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 18

Episode 18 Synopsis * Obamacare architect Jonathan Gruber admits fraud promoting Obamacare: * "They proposed it and that passed, because the American people are too stupid to understand the difference." * Administration's argument to Supreme Court about constitutionality of Exchanges claims "typo" * The average American may not be able to make decisions for others, but they know what is best for themselves Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Nov 201420min

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