Data Be Damned, Rate Hike Ahead?
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast8 Dec 2015

Data Be Damned, Rate Hike Ahead?


* We are just about a week away from the Federal Reserve's first rate increase in about 10 years
* Everybody believes the stage is set for liftoff based on the most recent better than expected Non-Farms Payroll report
* The idea is that the only thing preventing the Fed from liftoff would have been a horrific jobs number
* In fact the markets estimated 190,000 jobs added and we got 211,000
* We did beat estimates, and in fact they revised last month's number up to 298,000
* The unemployment rate held steady at 5%
* This was not a strong report, any way you look at it
* The labor force participation rate: 62.5% is just one-tenth of a percent from the lowest level since the mid-1970's
* That is still going in the wrong direction
* We had the biggest surge in involuntary part-time workers - 300,000 new workers really wanted full time employment - the biggest jump in more than 3 years
* Janet Yellen has consistently stated until recently that before moving up interest rates she wanted to see improvement in the job market, specifically in participation and full-time vs part-time jobs
* Thus far that has not happened
* So why does everybody believe that the Fed is about to raise interest rates regardless of its stated criteria?
* I believed that the Fed had no intention of raising rates and I believe they did not, except one thing has changed: they have backed themselves into a corner
* They have floated some trial balloons as a litmus test
* One change of rhetoric occurred during Yellen's press conference last week as she switched from waiting for the data to improve to confidence that it will improve some time in the next year
* Another change is the idea that a rate hike would trigger a series of hikes with the goal of normalizing interest rates
* That's why they were calling it liftoff
* Now, since the markets tanked after September did not deliver a liftoff, the Fed Chair has changed her tune - liftoff does not matter, the trajectory does
* She may be saying, don't worry, if we raise rates, there won't be another one any time soon, meaning it would be the end of the tightening cycle
* The beginning of tightening during the taper, and if we get a rate hike it will end that process
* If this is just a trivial rate hike, why raise rates at all, considering the fact that the data is still bad?
* Manufacturing is already in a recession
* The ISM number that came out last week hit a 6-year low and even the service sector ISM missed estimates
* Retail sales and consumer confidence have been disappointing, indicating the end of this weak recovery which is actually a bubble
* The Fed now feels their credibility is on the line - it is a symbolic gesture to show confidence in the economy
* If they were truly confident, they would not assure everybody that the rate hikes are not likely to continue
* In 2016 we will be in a recession unless the Fed does something to delay its onset, and it may be too late for them to put out the fire they have already lit
* Why does Janet Yellen not say she believes the economy is still weak?
* A window into Yellen's perception is an interview that Ben Bernanke gave on Freakonomics yesterday. It's entertaining, but it doesn't tell you anything new about Ben Bernanke
* The most important revelation occurred about halfway through the interview when the interviewer played some clips of Bernanke on television in 2005-2006.
* During those clips, Bernanke was talking about the great shape the economy was in, minimizing the housing and mortgage market troubles
* The interviewer asked how he felt listening to himself now, Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Avsnitt(1086)

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 5

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 5

Episode 5 Synopsis: * Debunking Ned Davis' predictions on gold * Chicago Fed president Charles Evans hints that the Fed can't raise interest rates * Alan Greenspan gives Fed a pass on CNBC * Brokerage houses hit by FINRA arbritation results * Eurozone low inflation 'scare' * Collapse in Fannie and Freddie stock * The numbers behind the weekly economic data Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

6 Okt 20142h 24min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 4

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 4

Episode 4 Synopsis * Launch of the iPhone 6 * Surprising employment arbitration results * Housing market rolls over * Hotel minimum wage * World Bank head claims that QE works Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

28 Sep 20142h 23min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 3

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 3

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 3 Synopsis: * FOMC: Janet Yellen's official statement and her response to her Q&A, later in the day * Market reaction to Yellen's statement, and the "walk" vs the "talk". * The Ali Baba IPO * The breakdown in the price of Bitcoin * My crazy email exchange with CNBC's Joe Kernen * Scotland votes to remain in the UK Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Sep 20142h 4min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 2

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 2

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 2 Synopsis * Economic Data - More weak data * Purchase applications index declined by 7.2% - biggest decline in 14 years * Treasury yields slightly up for the week * Retail sales up - Buying more or paying more? * auto purchases with cheap money * inflation not taken into account * Auto loans increasingly delinquent * Fed Policy * I'll admit to being wrong if the Fed raises interest rates back to normal and shrinks its balance sheet back to normal, as promised, and does not produce a financial crisis. * Interest Rates * Negative Interest Rates in Japan and in Switzerland * Inflation * Paul Krugman says we should be at 4% inflation and a minimum wage of $10.10 * Commentary on Henry Blodgett's inflation comments * Column from David K. Johnson on how corporations are getting rich by paying taxes * Employment * Jobless claims up, indicating a trend change * The Economy * Recognizing bubbles ahead of the crisis * Europe - Poll on Scottish independence * Social Issues: * The NBA in the hot seat for racism * Over-reaction to the Ray Rice story Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Sep 20142h 3min

Schiff Radio Podcast Episode 1

Schiff Radio Podcast Episode 1

Schiff Radio Podcast Episode 1  Synopsis: * Wall Street foolishly dismisses August's horrible Jobs Report * ECB cuts rates in misguided push for higher inflation. * "Shrink-flation," what is it and why those using the term still don't get it. * Implications of Switzerland's coming gold reserve vote . * Protesting Fast food workers determined to put themselves out of work. * Does Alibaba's biggest IPO in history shows portent more interest in foreign stocks? * Countrywide's Anthony Mozilo is not the real villain. * NY Fed concedes 25% of college grads wasted their time and money. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

9 Sep 20141h 52min

Schiff Radio – January 1, 2014

Schiff Radio – January 1, 2014

Happy Holidays!, Due to the holidays, Peter Schiff Show is airing best-of broadcasts. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

2 Jan 201449min

Populärt inom Business & ekonomi

badfluence
framgangspodden
varvet
rss-jossan-nina
uppgang-och-fall
rss-svart-marknad
lastbilspodden
rss-borsens-finest
affarsvarlden
avanzapodden
fill-or-kill
rss-en-rik-historia
24fragor
rss-inga-dumma-fragor-om-pengar
rss-kort-lang-analyspodden-fran-di
borsmorgon
kapitalet-en-podd-om-ekonomi
rss-dagen-med-di
bathina-en-podcast
tabberaset