Janet Yellen Gets Nuts – Ep. 125

Janet Yellen Gets Nuts – Ep. 125


* Yesterday, the Federal Reserve finally met market expectations and increased interest rates to .25%
* Actually, the official rate was 0 - .25 and now, the official rate is .25 to .5
* The actual rate was always in the middle between zero and .25
* Assuming the Fed tries to keep the rate closer to .25 than .5, the actual increase in rates could be less than 25 basis points
* The initial reaction to this rate hike is to proclaim the end of the era of "cheap money"
* .25% is still cheap money. Alan Greenspan never went below 1%.
* Some people are saying "Peter Schiff was wrong" because the Fed did raise rates
* Actually, in a recent podcast I noted that the Fed changed their narrative away from "data dependent" to an expression of faith in the economy, opening the door to a symbolic rate hike unsupported by data
* I was alone throughout the year believing that the Fed would not raise rates prior to this change in narrative
* The Fed was afraid that to not raise rates this year, it would be a vote of "no confidence" in the economy
* Ultimately, the Fed felt that even though the data didn't justify it, they had to raise rates because of psychological damage to the markets
* If the economy were really sound, we would not need Janet Yellen to express confidence in the economy - a strong economy creates its own confidence.
* We don't need propaganda in the form of a symbolic rate hike
* The Fed did not even have the last recession in their forecast until we were well into the recession, so who cares about the Fed's level of confidence?
* In an earlier podcast, I referred to Ben Bernanke's comment that he felt he was a representative of the administration
* Janet Yellen is creating a sense of confidence in the economy for the same reason
* The Fed is now pretending that we will have more rate hikes in the future, forecasting 4 more hikes during 2016
* I believe the economy is not strong enough to accommodate these rate hikes and neither does Janet Yellen
* The ultimate irony is the data that came out the morning of the rate hike
* Industrial Production: they were forecasting a drop of .2, which is still bad, instead, we got a drop of .6
* The PMI Manufacturing Index was the lowest in many years, 51.3 down from 52.6
* More bad news: The Philadelphia Fed last month showed an increase of 1.9, so 1.2 was forcasted - instead we dropped 5.9
* These numbers show an economy that is decelerating
* If you look at a chart, these numbers are about to crash even lower
* These numbers are flashing recession, recession, recession
* If you're a Keynsenian, the prescription for the condition this economy has would be stimulus, not an interest rates
* The air was coming out of this bubble anyway, all the Fed did was increase the hole for the air to come out
* The market was up just before the hike, which was interpreted as a green light to raise rates. I said in an earlier podcast that that would be a mistake, because the market would then tank, and that is what happened today
* Transports have been the weakest of all, despite oil prices
* We continue to see weakness in the high-yield bond market as the air is coming out of that bubble
* It is probable that the stock market is going to get a lot worse between now and the time the Fed is supposed to hike rates again
* But the problem for the Fed now, is if the market starts to tank now, they can't do anything until the jobs numbers begin to show weakness
* Janet Yellen actually referred to this move as "ahead of the curve", meaning that if she waited any longer, she would overshoot on her objectives:
* One was unemployment. How can that get too low? Especially with so many people out of the labor market, Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Avsnitt(1086)

Switzerland Loses Currency War Swiss Win – Ep. 44

Switzerland Loses Currency War Swiss Win – Ep. 44

* The Swiss people have given up the inflation ghost to win the currency war * Media reports negative on the news: "silly decision" * Oil down against the Swiss Franc * Swiss stocks up in U.S. dollars * Wall Street expects Eurozone QE, but without Swiss, QE might be less likely * Gold up against other currencies * Franc surging in value against the dollar * This move may signal economic reform * Unfortunately Janet Yellen is not going to get this memo * Volatility from Swiss move is nothing compared to consequences of a U.S. QE 4 * This move is bearish for the U.S. market * Buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy ride Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Jan 201517min

Denial Runs Deep From Wall Street To Bitcoin – Ep 43

Denial Runs Deep From Wall Street To Bitcoin – Ep 43

* Dow down 600 points in between Tuesday high and Wednesday low * Stock market and real estate are pillars of the phony recovery * Loose government lending standards encouraging mortgage defaults * Dollar down and gold up on low retail sales numbers * Fed not likely to sit out a U.S. recession, trading support for Wall Street over the dollar * The next QE could be bearish for bonds and the dollar * Demise of the recovery illusion will also hurt stocks * Bitcoins down on more bad news * Price does matter as investors seek value * Irredeemable digital currencies will never be money Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Jan 201533min

Jobs Up But Earnings and Participation Down – Ep. 42

Jobs Up But Earnings and Participation Down – Ep. 42

* December jobs report up; unemployment down * Average hourly earnings dropped * Labor force participation hits new low, except for older Americans * Fewer young workers supporting the Social Security system * Most credit comprised of student loans and auto loans * Auto delinquencies highest since 2008, indicating a bubble * Obama's plan to make community college free will further inflate costs * Charles Evans calls for more inflation before raising interest rates * Denies relationship between cheap money and bubbles * The term "patience" indicates no timeframe for higher rates * Gold stocks very strong and gold prices continue to rise in face of rising dollar Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

11 Jan 201521min

Gold Breaks Out, Stocks Break Down – Ep. 41

Gold Breaks Out, Stocks Break Down – Ep. 41

* World markets left the gates weak on first full trading week of the year * Catalysts: Declining oil prices and Greece's potential Eurozone exit * The Euro has gone sideways against the dollar for 9 years * The U.S. stock market will decline until the market believes rate hikes are off the table * U.S. will not experience accelerating growth in 2015 * Evidence shows the home market is not strengthening * Young entrepreneurship at a 20-year low * Falling oil prices are a symptom economy is not expanding Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

6 Jan 201522min

As The New Year Begins, Will The  Recovery End? – Ep. 40

As The New Year Begins, Will The Recovery End? – Ep. 40

* Falling unemployment trends seem to be over * PMI "unexpectedly" drops to 53.9% * Construction spending "unexpectedly" fell .3% * December ISM fell to 55.5 * Draghi's comments at ECB sparked U.S. Dollar rally despite weak data * Eurozone QE not likely * 2014 was a flat year for gold, despite bad press * Dollar price based on higher interest rate expectations * Price of gold has tripled since 2005 * Gold mining costs rise with inflation * The real bubble is the confidence in central bankers Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Jan 201535min

Christmas Snow Job on Wall Street – Ep. 39

Christmas Snow Job on Wall Street – Ep. 39

Christmas Snow job on Wall Street * Dow ended Christmas Eve Day above 18,000 for second day * Catalyst was bigger than expected revision to Q3 GDP to 5% * Big disconnect between economic performance and expectations * Consumer spending up mostly on healthcare * Inventory increases in expectation of future sales * Data for Q4 is lower * Home sales continue to drop Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Dec 201426min

SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball – Ep. 38

SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball – Ep. 38

SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball * Negative deposit rates in Switzerland send U.S. stocks up 420 points. * Two-day Wall Street rally over 700 points on nothing but Central Bank inflation * Swiss move triggers QE speculation and higher gold prices * Janet Yellen merely suggested the economy is strong enough to raise rates in the future * Meanwhile, economy is slowest since last February Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Dec 201422min

Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her – Ep. 37

Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her – Ep. 37

Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her - Ep. 37 * FOMC wrapped up meeting with Yellen press conference * Most people expected "considerable time" to be dropped * Bloomberg believes "considerable" dropped in favor of "patience" * The Fed didn't change anything * The Fed didn't actually say anything * Markets up on Yellen's optimistic non-news * Why wait to raise interest rates? * The longer the Fed waits to raise rates, the more painful it will be for the economy * What is the Fed's strategy if economy slows down? Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

18 Dec 201425min

Populärt inom Business & ekonomi

badfluence
framgangspodden
varvet
rss-jossan-nina
rss-svart-marknad
uppgang-och-fall
lastbilspodden
rss-borsens-finest
avanzapodden
fill-or-kill
affarsvarlden
rss-inga-dumma-fragor-om-pengar
rss-en-rik-historia
rss-dagen-med-di
borsmorgon
rss-kort-lang-analyspodden-fran-di
rikatillsammans-om-privatekonomi-rikedom-i-livet
bathina-en-podcast
rss-den-nya-ekonomin
dynastin