CNBC Calls Me Out on Gold – Ep. 126

* Recording this podcast on Monday afternoon; the stock market closed about an hour ago, and the stock market was up over 100 points today, but the more dramatic days happened on Thrusday and Friday
* Despite the initial euphoric increase in the stock market that greeted the Fed's highly anticipated quarter-point rate hike on Wednesday the market tanked on Thursday and Friday, down over 600 points
* The most significant part of the sell-offs is that on both days the markets closed on the lows for the day
* The Fed is getting dangerously close to losing what remains of its credibility
* The Credibility Bubble might be the first to deflate in this recession
* The Fed has been saying that the economy would be strong enough for a rate hike by the end of the year, so if they did not raise rates in December it would have been an admission that they were wrong
* The Fed raised rates even though the economic data showed that, based on their own criteria, they should not have done it
* More and more people are questioning whether the Fed has made a policy mistake
* Look at the data that came out since the rate hike:
* On Friday we got the PMI Flash Services Index came out at 53.7 - last month it was 56.5
* The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing - last month was +1 and December was -8
* Today we got the Chicago Fed National Activity, expected to be +.15 for November, instead it came out at -.3 and they revised down the prior month to -.17
* With all the horrible economic data, horrible retail sales, horrible corporate earnings it is obvious that the U.S. economy is heading toward recession
* As the economy slows and the Fed is forced to admit it was wrong, there goes it's credibility
* This coming collapse is the culmination of decades of bad monetary policy
* Where we really went off the rails was in the Greenspan era, which sent us off on this trajectory of loose money
* Yellen admitted in her recent press conference that they will still roll over all the maturing bonds and re-investing all the interest on those bonds so the Fed's balance sheet will continue to grow
* The bubble economy will blow up in her face, though, because the market will not be able to withstand a sustained correction and it will require unprecedented quantitative easing that will result in failure
* I wanted to discuss on this podcast an Sunday eening article on CNBC, "The Peter Meter" that really took me to task on my gold predictions
* They did not look at any of my many accurate predictions; they focused on the ones that haven't worked out
* They singled me out for criticism on an 2012 interview I did with them when gold was at $1,700 and I said it could go to $5,000. I never put a time horizon on my prediction, but this was labled as one of the worst
* Back in 2005 I did an interview with Mark Haynes when gold was still below 500 and it more than tripled from that price
* You can see articles I wrote recommending gold back in 2003 when gold was even below 500.
* It is true that I did not see the near 40% correction in the price of gold because I thought the market would see past the bubbles
* CNBC claims my prediction to be among the least prescient ever made
* Twice in the last 15 years the U.S. stock market lost more than half its value
* Anybody who was on CNBC in 1999 and recommended the stock market, which was about every guest, made a worse prediction than that
* Every guest on CNBC in 2007 and 2008 and recommended the stock market made a worse prediction
* What about all the dot com stocks that went to zero?
* Obviously, CNBC is singling my gold prediction out above these other significantly less prescient predictions
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