Thoughts On The Economy, Buffet, Oscars & Politics – Ep.148

Thoughts On The Economy, Buffet, Oscars & Politics – Ep.148


* The Dow finished the last trading day in February, with a 123-point decline, in fact the Dow Jones closed at the low of the day; the NASDAQ was down 32.5 points
* Gold reversed the declined from Friday, it was up $16.5 today it's up another $2.50 as I record this, we're now back above $1240
* The reason gold declined on Friday was that the rate hike was apparently back on the table because of some stronger than expected Q4 GDP numbers and also the consumer income and spending numbers were hotter than expected
* If you remember, I thought Q4 GDP would be revised down from .7%, in fact the consensus was for a downward revision to .4%; as it turned out, the government moved it up to +1%
* The reason for the adjustment was that inventories were not draw down as much as was originally thought, so I suppose that will happen in 2016 Q1
* In fact, the Atlanta GDP has already walked down their estimate for Q1 a bit, since that number came out.
* I don't think it really matters with the government says Q4 GDP was, because before the year is over they will revise that quarter negative because they will have to admit that the recession began last quarter
* They always declare a recession after the fact by going back and revising down the data
* We got the January trade deficit in merchandise that actually came out bigger than expected; $62.2 billion vs $61 billion - that's a lot of red ink for merchandise trade in one month
* What also spooked the gold market was the income and spending numbers - hotter than anticipated - personal income up .5 vs .4 expected, spending also up .5 vs .3 expected
* The core CPE numbers, the inflation numbers were hotter also; instead of being unchanged, were up .1
* Year over year, we were up 1.7 on the core and 1.3 overall
* The idea was that these numbers indicated that the rate hikes are back on the table
* I don't think so; especially when you look at the horrible numbers that came out today
* First is the Chicago PMI for February. Last month was 55.6, they were looking for 52.9; we got 47.6
* If you look at some of the sub-components, including employment, this was the weakest Chicago PMI since the great recession of 2009
*
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Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28 * This holiday shoppers had more shopping hours * 5% less traffic than last year * 11% less money spent than last year * The economy can't support robust holiday sales * Despite big drop in gas prices * Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

1 Dec 201424min

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27 * Oil and gold stocks down * OPEC announced no decline in oil production * Crude trading below $66/barrel * Bump to the Dollar * Mining sector takes a hit * Gold down * A no vote on Swiss Gold initiative bullish for gold Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

30 Nov 201435min

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26 Missing expectations on all economic indicators * Chicago Fed index .14 * PMI flash services 56.3 * Dallas Fed Manufacturing 10.5 * Case Shiller Index slows down to 4.9% * Consumer Confidence number down to 88.7M * Oil prices continue to fall * Big drop in Richmond Fed 75% below estimate * Optimism fueled by debt, consumption and bubbles Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Nov 201428min

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict: Episode 25A * Riots are not the caused by the Grand Jury * The Grand Jury's statement did not address Michael Brown's culpability * All evidence points to officer's innocence * Media fears addressing Michael Brown's violent behavior * Young men are not raised to respect the law * This will happen again because there is no recourse to violence and false witness< Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman runs premature victory lap: Episode 24A * Assumes that money-printing works because there is "no inflation" * Krugman's cure for the stock market bubble was the real estate bubble * The test is when the printing presses stop Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

Big News out of the Central Banks * U.S. FOMC * Primary concern - inflation is too low * no policy to "correct" the problem * Preparing markets for additional stimulus * Japanese Central Bank Doublespeak * Japanese sales tax hike postponed * Continued calls for more inflation * Why is sales tax is different than inflation? * Euro Decline * Mandating "stability" by increasing inflation? * Chinese Central Bank * Cut interest rate to 5.6% * Money flows to the dollar as a hedge because the market believes the Fed * Gold has not dropped much against the dollar and has risen against other currencies Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Nov 201431min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

Episode 23: Going to Extreme to Prove a Point: Two articles about Peter Schiff: * MarketWatch - writer refused to address corrections before going to print except for my official title - The point of my forecasts is to help people avoid problems ahead of time - I did not call for a stock market crash; I predicted QE4 - The Fed can prevent a Dollar Crisis - I said hyperinflation is unlikely, but a possibility * New Republic - Writer quotes selectively from a Reason article to prove his own spin - Points to the CPI to refute real inflation - The price of a Big Mac mirrored the CPI until 2002 - Now price of Big Mac rises 2x as fast as CPI - This illustrates how the government measures inflation Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Nov 201427min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

Episode 22: Lessons from the Michael Brown Case: * Don't rob a convenience store. * Don't rob a convenience store while high. * Don't be conspicuous after robbing a convenience store while high. * If a policeman then stops you, obey the policeman. * Do not try to take the policeman's gun away from him. * But if you get shot in the hand going for the gun and run away, do not charge the policeman when he says, "freeze!" * The political narrative hides the real problem: unhealthy family life. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

20 Nov 201421min

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