It’s Crunch Time For The Fed As Stagflation Looms  – Ep. 162

It’s Crunch Time For The Fed As Stagflation Looms – Ep. 162


* Earlier today the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, (FOMC) began their 2-day meeting
* It concludes tomorrow and at 2:00 they will announce their decision on interest rates
* Nobody is anxiously awaiting that announcement
* Although there were plenty of fools a few months ago who actually believed the Federal Reserve would be raising interest rates, in fact they thought they were going to raise them in March and then, when they didn't there were a lot of people who still thought they might do it in April
* But some of these fools still believe the Fed is going to hike rates later in the year - maybe June
* Maybe June, September and December
* There are still people, like Goldman Sachs, who are looking for 3 rate hikes this year
* I was on a panel months ago with Jim Rickards, whom I have a lot of respect for, and back then he argued with me, because he believed the Fed would raise rates 2 if not 3 times in 2016
* I said the Fed would not raise rates at all
* Today I posted an interview that he gave on Bloomberg - now Jim Rickards says Janet Yellen has gone super-dove and she is not going to raise rates
* The reason Jim Rickards disagreed with me on the panel a couple of months ago is that, although he agrees with my thoughts on the economy, is that he thought the Fed would not recognize that the economy is very weak, rather that it believes the economy is still recovering
* He thought the Fed would raise rates anyway, which would cause a recession, cause the Fed to abort the increases, go back to zero and to QE4
* I said, I think we are going to skip all the rate hikes and go directly to rate cuts and QE4
* And now I think Jim has joined me in that perspective
* The question is: Will the Federal Reserve actually admit that the economy is that weak, or just not raise rates, which is tantamount to an admission of weakness
* We are going to get the first official look at Q1 GDP on Thursday
* There's a good chance that we will print a negative number
* And even if we don't print a negative number, it will be a single digit number less than 1
* And by the time they revise it the following month to incorporate all the bad news that comes after Thursday, I think they will revise it negative
* Which means we're in a recession
* If Q1 is negative, and I don't believe we will get a bounce-back in Q2
* I think Q1 is the high water mark and it's down hill from here
* I think Q2 will be weaker regardless of how weak Q1 is, because we borrowed growth from Q2 because we had the warmest winter in 120 years
* Companies are now winding down their bloated inventories that they built up the last couple of years
* And because the trade deficits are getting bigger and not smaller
* So we have a lot weighing down GDP in Q2 in an already weak economy
* By the way, the Atlanta Fed revised up their Q1 GDP number from .3 to .4
* Why did they do that? This is the second time the Atlanta Fed has upwardly revised their estimate, despite the fact that the economic data has gotten worse since their last estimate
* If the data gets worse, why would you revise your forecast up?
* To me something's going on, maybe it's the boys at the New York Fed putting pressure on Atlanta to be more optimistic, but we'll see, because we will get the first official numbers on Thursday
* Let me go over some of the economic data that has come out just since my last podcast
* On Friday last week, we got the PMI Flash Index for April - not a Q1 number
* One of the first numbers for Q2 and it ain't pretty - the consensus was for an improvement
* March was 51.4, and 52 was expected - we got 50.8 - much weaker than the Atlanta Fed thought
* New Home Sales missed; they were looking for 522,000, Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Avsnitt(1086)

Despite Slowing Economy, Job Growth Speeds Up – Ep. 51

Despite Slowing Economy, Job Growth Speeds Up – Ep. 51

* Monthly non-farm employment number beat expectations * Upward revisions to prior months * Average hourly earnings number jumped by .5 * Immediate reaction in the market was swift * Dollar up; gold down * Unemployment up * Labor force participation down among younger workers * Jobs number inconsistent with other weak economic data * Layoffs are up * Government is way off on "jobs lost" data * Yesterday's trade deficit was the largest increase recorded * If our economy were strong, our workers would be producing and we would not rely on imports * Trade deficit is subtracted from the GDP * Productivity numbers weaker than expected * How many times can the dollar rally on the same news? Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

7 Feb 201519min

Are Forex Markets Finally Acknowledging the Slowing U.S. Economy?

Are Forex Markets Finally Acknowledging the Slowing U.S. Economy?

* Volatile day in the markets * Largest decline in Personal Spending since September 2009 * Wages and Salaries gain slowest in 7 months * December ISM Manufacturing Index down to 53.5 * December Employment growth at 7-month low * 2.6% GDP number will likely be revised downward * U.S. Factory Orders declined 3.6% in December * Oil prices triggering momentum against the dollar * The FOREX markets are beginning to acknowledge U.S. economic weakness * QE4 will accompany a budget-busting economic stimulus * S&P was the only agency penalized by the government for rating sub-prime mortgage AAA * S&P is actually being penalized for downgrading U.S. government debt Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Feb 201530min

A Dove in Hawk’s Clothing – Ep. 49

A Dove in Hawk’s Clothing – Ep. 49

* Fed's official statement released yesterday * Received by the market as hawkish, Fed is still reiterates "patience" * The statement noted unguarded optimism about the U.S. Economy * Fed ignored unstable markets, Europe, oil prices and strength of the dollar * Response: the market sold off and the dollar rallied * Gold declined on Fed's expectations * The Fed's underlying goal may be to talk the dollar up and talk the markets down * Strong dollar buys time * Continued "patience" indicates Fed's true agenda Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

29 Jan 201517min

Weak Earnings and Bad Economic Data Pummel Stocks – Ep. 48

Weak Earnings and Bad Economic Data Pummel Stocks – Ep. 48

* Wall Street spared blizzard only to be buried in bad earnings and bad economic news * December durable goods down 3.4%; expected to come in at +.7 * Consumer confidence up to 102.9; contrarian indicator * Last time consumers were this confident was in the middle of 2007 * Number will collapse when reality has a violent confrontation with perception * P&G earnings down 31% * Caterpillar warned * Microsoft stock down 10% today * UPS announced they overestimated holiday sales * Businesses geared up for a recovery in late 2013 that was not going to happen * Layoffs coming in 2015 * This may give the Fed an excuse to delay rate increase * How can a strong dollar be good for America but a weak euro be good for Europe? Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

28 Jan 201535min

Obama Misstate of the Union – Ep. 47

Obama Misstate of the Union – Ep. 47

* The President is taking credit for an economic recovery that is a bubble created by the Fed * Obama voters' salaries are much lower now than when he was elected * We have fewer full-time jobs during Obama presidency * Obama is offering freebies to the middle class, promising to tax the "wealthy" * Getting money that you didn't earn is "fair" * Higher taxes on earned money is "fair" * Capitalism built the middle class * The Government has destroyed the middle class * Obama actually claimed that he "reduced" the national debt Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Jan 201510min

Central Banks Wage War Against Low Prices – Ep. 46

Central Banks Wage War Against Low Prices – Ep. 46

* Big action from the Central Banks this week * Bank of Canada lowered rates from 1% to .75% * The ECB announced the launch of first QE program * The Euro plunged against gold * Central Banks' goal is to raise the level of inflation to guard against falling prices * Falling prices accelerate economic activity * Regulations and taxes slow down economies * QE in Europe lets the politicians escape the consequences of regulations and taxes * QE will send European money abroad * Inflation is an obstacle to economic growth Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Jan 201523min

Gold Rally Continues, Yuan/Dollar Peg Explained – Ep. 45

Gold Rally Continues, Yuan/Dollar Peg Explained – Ep. 45

* Biggest 7-day surge in Gold prices since 2011 * U.S. GDP will be lower than in Canada this year * Canadian gold production will rise in 2015 * Gold is rising against most currencies except the Swiss Franc * The IMF still believes the U.S. economy is recovering * Outlook for gold in Australia is also positive * The Yuan will probably be the next peg to go, allowing it to rise against the dollar * The American workforce is being rewarded for incurring large debt to engage in unproductive careers Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Jan 201522min

Will China Pull a “Switzerland” on the U.S. Dollar?

Will China Pull a “Switzerland” on the U.S. Dollar?

* Thursday, January 15, will be remembered as the day Switzerland abandoned its peg to the Euro * The Swiss defended their policy to peg to the Euro, but suddenly reversed, limiting their losses * They admitted they were wrong * Although the Swiss stock market went down in their currency, it was up in every other currency * Gold is up against everything except the Swiss franc * The news in the Swiss market will be a tremor compared to the earthquake if the Chinese abandon their peg both to the Hong Kong Dollar and the Yuan * America will win the currency war to the detriment of the American people Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Jan 201524min

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