Ep. 165: Markets In Denial About Jobs As Trump Lets Truth Slip About Debt

Ep. 165: Markets In Denial About Jobs As Trump Lets Truth Slip About Debt


* Today we got the government's Non-Farm Payroll report, otherwise known as the Jobs Report, for the month of April and pretty much all the mainstream Wall Street guys were looking for another strong report
* In fact, earlier in the week Goldman Sachs was out saying that the 200,000 consensus estimate was too low!
* The optimism was unfazed by the much weaker than expected ADP report I spoke about on my last podcast on Wednesday, which came in much lighter than expected
* So, people didn't care, they said, "That's a one-off event, we're still looking for a good number, and we got a weak report
* Instead of 200,000 jobs we only got 160,000 jobs
* And they actually revised down the last couple of months
* But let's get into some of the details, because it gets worse, the further beneath the surface you look
* The unemployment rate held steady at 5%; they were expecting it to notch down to 4.9% - that did not happen
* Private payrolls also much lighter than expected; they were looking for 195,000; they got 171,000 and they revised down last month's from 195K to 184K
* They did get the .3% increase in average hourly earnings, but they forgot to point out that they revised month's .3% increase down to .2% so you can chalk that one up as a miss, despite the fact that nobody was talking about it
* The bigger miss was in the Labor Force Participation Rate
* Last month it was 63%, which was a move up, but in April it came back down to 62.8%
* 562,000 people left the labor force during the month of April
* A massive exodus led by young people
* A breakdown in the Household Survey for ages 20-24 reported 155,000 job losses in April
* For ages 25 - 54 - 284,000 jobs losses
* For ages over the age of 55 - this is the highest it has ever been
* Janet Yellen still wants to pretend that the reason the Labor Force Participation Rate is declining is because the Baby Boom is retiring - how much longer is she going to get away with that lie?
* The Baby Boom is too broke to retire
* The people leaving the workforce are young people in their 20's and 30's
* A breakdown of job gains by sector shows the biggest sector is professional business and temporary services - 56,000 gains
* Healthcare and education was high, and leisure and hospitality came in third
* Manufacturing barely gained any jobs after a huge loss the prior month
* Wholesale trade barely gained any
* Construction, after a big jump last month - only 1,000 jobs
* Retail trade lost 3,000 jobs
* Mining and logging continues to lose jobs
* On a good note, government actually lost jobs
* That's a good thing - we don't need so many people working for government - they're not productive
* Rick Santelli made a very good point today on CNBC, talking about all the jobs created at the TSA
* We're not better off with those jobs - they decrease our productivity
* As I mentioned on my last podcast, we've now had 2 consecutive quarters of losses in productivity
* Despite this bad jobs report, the market shrugged it off
* The stock market rallied because bad news is good news - the odds of a Fed rate hike are now the lowest they've ever been
* If you look at the Foreign Exchange markets, the dollar was broadly higher today
* It was up big against the Australian dollar because the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered their inflation forecast
* They lowered it from 2-3% to 1-2%
* You would think that's good news, because it means the cost of living will rise only 1-2%
* Back in the day, news of low inflation sent a currency higher, because it was not losing purchasing power
* The news sent the Australian dollar tumbling because the market now expects the Australian Reserve will have to c... Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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Despite Slowing Economy, Job Growth Speeds Up – Ep. 51

Despite Slowing Economy, Job Growth Speeds Up – Ep. 51

* Monthly non-farm employment number beat expectations * Upward revisions to prior months * Average hourly earnings number jumped by .5 * Immediate reaction in the market was swift * Dollar up; gold down * Unemployment up * Labor force participation down among younger workers * Jobs number inconsistent with other weak economic data * Layoffs are up * Government is way off on "jobs lost" data * Yesterday's trade deficit was the largest increase recorded * If our economy were strong, our workers would be producing and we would not rely on imports * Trade deficit is subtracted from the GDP * Productivity numbers weaker than expected * How many times can the dollar rally on the same news? Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

7 Feb 201519min

Are Forex Markets Finally Acknowledging the Slowing U.S. Economy?

Are Forex Markets Finally Acknowledging the Slowing U.S. Economy?

* Volatile day in the markets * Largest decline in Personal Spending since September 2009 * Wages and Salaries gain slowest in 7 months * December ISM Manufacturing Index down to 53.5 * December Employment growth at 7-month low * 2.6% GDP number will likely be revised downward * U.S. Factory Orders declined 3.6% in December * Oil prices triggering momentum against the dollar * The FOREX markets are beginning to acknowledge U.S. economic weakness * QE4 will accompany a budget-busting economic stimulus * S&P was the only agency penalized by the government for rating sub-prime mortgage AAA * S&P is actually being penalized for downgrading U.S. government debt Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Feb 201530min

A Dove in Hawk’s Clothing – Ep. 49

A Dove in Hawk’s Clothing – Ep. 49

* Fed's official statement released yesterday * Received by the market as hawkish, Fed is still reiterates "patience" * The statement noted unguarded optimism about the U.S. Economy * Fed ignored unstable markets, Europe, oil prices and strength of the dollar * Response: the market sold off and the dollar rallied * Gold declined on Fed's expectations * The Fed's underlying goal may be to talk the dollar up and talk the markets down * Strong dollar buys time * Continued "patience" indicates Fed's true agenda Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

29 Jan 201517min

Weak Earnings and Bad Economic Data Pummel Stocks – Ep. 48

Weak Earnings and Bad Economic Data Pummel Stocks – Ep. 48

* Wall Street spared blizzard only to be buried in bad earnings and bad economic news * December durable goods down 3.4%; expected to come in at +.7 * Consumer confidence up to 102.9; contrarian indicator * Last time consumers were this confident was in the middle of 2007 * Number will collapse when reality has a violent confrontation with perception * P&G earnings down 31% * Caterpillar warned * Microsoft stock down 10% today * UPS announced they overestimated holiday sales * Businesses geared up for a recovery in late 2013 that was not going to happen * Layoffs coming in 2015 * This may give the Fed an excuse to delay rate increase * How can a strong dollar be good for America but a weak euro be good for Europe? Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

28 Jan 201535min

Obama Misstate of the Union – Ep. 47

Obama Misstate of the Union – Ep. 47

* The President is taking credit for an economic recovery that is a bubble created by the Fed * Obama voters' salaries are much lower now than when he was elected * We have fewer full-time jobs during Obama presidency * Obama is offering freebies to the middle class, promising to tax the "wealthy" * Getting money that you didn't earn is "fair" * Higher taxes on earned money is "fair" * Capitalism built the middle class * The Government has destroyed the middle class * Obama actually claimed that he "reduced" the national debt Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Jan 201510min

Central Banks Wage War Against Low Prices – Ep. 46

Central Banks Wage War Against Low Prices – Ep. 46

* Big action from the Central Banks this week * Bank of Canada lowered rates from 1% to .75% * The ECB announced the launch of first QE program * The Euro plunged against gold * Central Banks' goal is to raise the level of inflation to guard against falling prices * Falling prices accelerate economic activity * Regulations and taxes slow down economies * QE in Europe lets the politicians escape the consequences of regulations and taxes * QE will send European money abroad * Inflation is an obstacle to economic growth Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Jan 201523min

Gold Rally Continues, Yuan/Dollar Peg Explained – Ep. 45

Gold Rally Continues, Yuan/Dollar Peg Explained – Ep. 45

* Biggest 7-day surge in Gold prices since 2011 * U.S. GDP will be lower than in Canada this year * Canadian gold production will rise in 2015 * Gold is rising against most currencies except the Swiss Franc * The IMF still believes the U.S. economy is recovering * Outlook for gold in Australia is also positive * The Yuan will probably be the next peg to go, allowing it to rise against the dollar * The American workforce is being rewarded for incurring large debt to engage in unproductive careers Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Jan 201522min

Will China Pull a “Switzerland” on the U.S. Dollar?

Will China Pull a “Switzerland” on the U.S. Dollar?

* Thursday, January 15, will be remembered as the day Switzerland abandoned its peg to the Euro * The Swiss defended their policy to peg to the Euro, but suddenly reversed, limiting their losses * They admitted they were wrong * Although the Swiss stock market went down in their currency, it was up in every other currency * Gold is up against everything except the Swiss franc * The news in the Swiss market will be a tremor compared to the earthquake if the Chinese abandon their peg both to the Hong Kong Dollar and the Yuan * America will win the currency war to the detriment of the American people Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Jan 201524min

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