Fed Cries Wolf, Traders Come Running – Ep. 169

Fed Cries Wolf, Traders Come Running – Ep. 169


* I wanted to record a short podcast today just to discuss the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes that were released at 2:00pm this afternoon ET, which reflect the views of the Fed when they had their April meeting, some 6 weeks ago, when the Fed decided not to raise rates
* As a result of the release of these minutes, everybody has now jumped to the conclusion that a June rate hike is not only on the table, but basically a done deal
* I heard people talking about it on CNBC, "The Fed had to do this to show they are on a path to normalization - they said they would have a gradual pace, so they had no excuse but to do this."
* Do what? They haven't actually raised rates, they've just talked about it
* Let me read you the statement they made about rates:
Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June.

* They didn't say they would do it, they said it would LIKELY be appropriate
* Likely doesn't mean definitely, and appropriate doesn't mean they're going to do it
* Because even if they determine that it is appropriate it doesn't mean they will do it
* Before you even get to the likely and appropriate part of the statement, 2 things have to happen, or 3 things if you want to count inflation, but inflation has already happened
* The economy has to pick up in Q2 - It doesn't look likely that that's going to happen - it is possible that we could get a second quarter stronger than the horrible Q1 but is 1 - 1.5% economic growth in Q2 picking up? It will still average out to a weak first half of the year
* But the Fed also wants to see that labor conditions continue to strengthen
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Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28

Media Spins Horrible Holiday Sales as Reflecting Economic Strength: Ep. 28 * This holiday shoppers had more shopping hours * 5% less traffic than last year * 11% less money spent than last year * The economy can't support robust holiday sales * Despite big drop in gas prices * Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

1 Dec 201424min

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27

Black and Blue Friday for Oil Producers and Gold Miners: Episode 27 * Oil and gold stocks down * OPEC announced no decline in oil production * Crude trading below $66/barrel * Bump to the Dollar * Mining sector takes a hit * Gold down * A no vote on Swiss Gold initiative bullish for gold Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

30 Nov 201435min

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26

Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26 Missing expectations on all economic indicators * Chicago Fed index .14 * PMI flash services 56.3 * Dallas Fed Manufacturing 10.5 * Case Shiller Index slows down to 4.9% * Consumer Confidence number down to 88.7M * Oil prices continue to fall * Big drop in Richmond Fed 75% below estimate * Optimism fueled by debt, consumption and bubbles Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Nov 201428min

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict

The Real Outrage in Ferguson is the Reaction Not the Verdict: Episode 25A * Riots are not the caused by the Grand Jury * The Grand Jury's statement did not address Michael Brown's culpability * All evidence points to officer's innocence * Media fears addressing Michael Brown's violent behavior * Young men are not raised to respect the law * This will happen again because there is no recourse to violence and false witness< Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman Runs Premature Victory Lap: Episode 24A

Paul Krugman runs premature victory lap: Episode 24A * Assumes that money-printing works because there is "no inflation" * Krugman's cure for the stock market bubble was the real estate bubble * The test is when the printing presses stop Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Nov 201417min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 24

Big News out of the Central Banks * U.S. FOMC * Primary concern - inflation is too low * no policy to "correct" the problem * Preparing markets for additional stimulus * Japanese Central Bank Doublespeak * Japanese sales tax hike postponed * Continued calls for more inflation * Why is sales tax is different than inflation? * Euro Decline * Mandating "stability" by increasing inflation? * Chinese Central Bank * Cut interest rate to 5.6% * Money flows to the dollar as a hedge because the market believes the Fed * Gold has not dropped much against the dollar and has risen against other currencies Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Nov 201431min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 23

Episode 23: Going to Extreme to Prove a Point: Two articles about Peter Schiff: * MarketWatch - writer refused to address corrections before going to print except for my official title - The point of my forecasts is to help people avoid problems ahead of time - I did not call for a stock market crash; I predicted QE4 - The Fed can prevent a Dollar Crisis - I said hyperinflation is unlikely, but a possibility * New Republic - Writer quotes selectively from a Reason article to prove his own spin - Points to the CPI to refute real inflation - The price of a Big Mac mirrored the CPI until 2002 - Now price of Big Mac rises 2x as fast as CPI - This illustrates how the government measures inflation Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Nov 201427min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 22

Episode 22: Lessons from the Michael Brown Case: * Don't rob a convenience store. * Don't rob a convenience store while high. * Don't be conspicuous after robbing a convenience store while high. * If a policeman then stops you, obey the policeman. * Do not try to take the policeman's gun away from him. * But if you get shot in the hand going for the gun and run away, do not charge the policeman when he says, "freeze!" * The political narrative hides the real problem: unhealthy family life. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

20 Nov 201421min

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