Tax Reform Trial Balloons Keep Popping – Ep. 296

Tax Reform Trial Balloons Keep Popping – Ep. 296

Trial Balloon #1: Backpedaling on State and Local Tax Deductions
All this talk about tax cuts is all a fraud, because government is getting more expensive and the taxpayers are going to be stuck paying the bill one way or another. They keep on launching these "trial balloons. I was reading over the weekend that they are backpedaling, talking about the idea of eliminating the deduction for state and local taxes, but not for property taxes. So everybody can deduct their property taxes because everybody pays property taxes, whether you're in a red state or a blue state, whether you have state income tax or not. In fact, some states without state income tax have higher property taxes to compensate. So they still are going to allow the property tax deduction. That's the latest trial balloon that I have heard about.
Housing Lobby Against Tax Reform
But we still a lot of Republicans from high-tax states to allow the deduction for all taxes, including income taxes. The housing industry is still pushing back because they want people to deduct property taxes because that reduces the cost of owning property and makes it easier to sell at a higher price because one of the features of the property is a tax deduction. They also want to preserve the home mortgage deduction. I was reading that the housing lobby is trying to get something in there. Because if you double the standard deduction, that means far fewer people will itemize and they won't need the tax break associated with home ownership and that is a problem for the housing industry, that is really selling tax shelters. They are lobbying to get Congress to put back in a "homeowner's credit". Even if you don't itemize, you could still get some kind of tax benefit for being a home owner, which, if we were really reforming the tax code we would not want to do.
Trial Balloon#2: 20% Corporate Tax Rate "Phased In Over 4 Years"
Another trial balloon that came out over the weekend, obviously the market is not liking it, is that corporate tax cuts, where the plan is to lower the corporate tax rate to 20% from 35% - now they are saying that this would be phased in over a number of years so we wouldn't actually get to a 20% corporate tax rate until the year 2022. Now, why would they be doing this? Well, obviously, to the extent that they can delay the phase-in of the lower rate, then the effect on the deficit, at least during the initial years is not as great because they don't have to immediately calculate the reduction in tax revenue.
Failing to Attract Business to the U.S.
A lot of people are saying, "Well this will still be okay, because at least it's a permanent tax cut, and American businesses with still know that they can look forward to these lower tax rates..." And really what these lower tax rates are designed to do is to make the U.S. a more competitive place to do business. My feeling would be, if they delay the implication of these tax cuts until 2022, they ain't happening!
Getting a Bad Rap
A lot of stuff is going to happen in the economy between now and 2022, including another presidential election in 2020, and I'm already on record as saying that Trump will be a one termer, a placeholder between 2 democratic administrations. All the economic problems that built up during the Obama administration will blow up under Trump. If we get a Bernie Sanders-type as President in 2020, what are the odds that the 2022 corporate tax cuts are ever going to see the light of day?
No Such Thing as Permanent Tax Relief
All these people talking about permanent tax relief, what are these guys smoking? There is no permanent tax relief, especially when you don't have any relief from increased government spending. You know how much bigger the national debt will be by 2022? They will have to raise taxes on somebody, and obviously, corporations will be an easy target, especially if they are vilified. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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Hollywood Hypocrisy and Gender Pay Gap Fiction – Ep. 55

Hollywood Hypocrisy and Gender Pay Gap Fiction – Ep. 55

* Patricia Arquette claims that there is a still an unfair gender wage gap in the labor market * If that were true, all employers - male and female - would hire women first, because they are more cost effective employees * But they don't * Women who choose to balance family with career often accept lower-paying positions * Women do not make less money for the same work * They make less money for different work * In Hollywood, youth is an asset for women - for men, not as much. * Male action movie stars can earn more because action movies earn more. * Liberal spin promotes a government "solution" for a free market system that is working Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

24 Feb 201529min

Fed’s Open Mouth Operations Having Complications – Ep. 54

Fed’s Open Mouth Operations Having Complications – Ep. 54

* Two days of bad economic news this shortened week * The Fed still says the economy is recovering * Recent FOMC minutes maintains pretense they can raise interest rates * FOMC members are worried about raising rates "too soon" * The Fed is worried about how to remove the word "patient" from communications * How confident can the Fed be in the "recovery" if they still fear raising interest rates? * The "recovery" was just a bubble masquerading as a recovery * If we had a real recovery the Fed could have already raised rates * They are now concerned about weakness overseas * They are worried about a strong dollar * They expressed concerns about the risks of lower oil prices * Low inflation causes concerns * The Fed is clearly paying attention to the negative economic news * Empire State Manufacturing down * Home Builder Confidence at 4-month low * Industrial production weak * PPI number declined .8 * Eventually the economic numbers will force the Fed to acknowledge weakness and resume stimulus Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Feb 201520min

Investor Confidence Sends Stock Indexes to New Highs – Ep. 53

Investor Confidence Sends Stock Indexes to New Highs – Ep. 53

* Friday 13th was not unlucky for Wall Street * S&P 500 traded to an all-time record high * The Dow closed above 18,000 * NASDAQ at almost a 15-year high * Despite overall trend of weak corporate earnings * Weak economic data does not dampen Wall Street's spirits * Central Banks are behind the surge with excess liquidity * Wednesday - Mortgage Applications plunged 9% * Purchases declined 7% following a 2% decline prior week * 10% decline in Mortgage Refinances * Jobless claims up 25,000 from prior week * Biggest back-to-back decline in Retail Sales since October of 2009 * Consumer Confidence is down 2 weeks in a row * Business Inventories rose by just .1% contrary to expectations * Inventory to sales ratio highest since July 2009 * Huge drop in Consumer Sentiment * Jobs number is a lagging indicator * Part-time economy is a double-edged sword Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

14 Feb 201521min

I’m Living in an Economic Twilight Zone – Ep. 52

I’m Living in an Economic Twilight Zone – Ep. 52

* China announces a record trade surplus * Media reports surplus as bad news for China * Because of the strength of the Yuan, Chinese can buy more imports for less * Chinese consumers purchasing more * Chinese businesses manufacturing more * Contrary to press reports these factors point to a strong economy in China * U.S. has record deficits along with a strong dollar * The short term effect of a strong currency is that trade deficits should go down because imports are cheaper * The fact that our trade deficit continues to rise illustrates underlying economic weakness * Media double standard: China trade surplus is bad but U.S. trade deficit is good * Media reports "low rate of unemployment" among college grads, however: * Record number of college graduates are under employed * Only 44% of employed Americans work 30 hours or more per week * In future, the smarter students will skip low-value degrees in favor of work experience * Shake Shack IPO valuation $1.5 billion on $5 million profits * Grilled Cheese Truck: valued at $100 million on negative revenues * Black is white and white is black: Twilight Zone Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Feb 201527min

Despite Slowing Economy, Job Growth Speeds Up – Ep. 51

Despite Slowing Economy, Job Growth Speeds Up – Ep. 51

* Monthly non-farm employment number beat expectations * Upward revisions to prior months * Average hourly earnings number jumped by .5 * Immediate reaction in the market was swift * Dollar up; gold down * Unemployment up * Labor force participation down among younger workers * Jobs number inconsistent with other weak economic data * Layoffs are up * Government is way off on "jobs lost" data * Yesterday's trade deficit was the largest increase recorded * If our economy were strong, our workers would be producing and we would not rely on imports * Trade deficit is subtracted from the GDP * Productivity numbers weaker than expected * How many times can the dollar rally on the same news? Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

7 Feb 201519min

Are Forex Markets Finally Acknowledging the Slowing U.S. Economy?

Are Forex Markets Finally Acknowledging the Slowing U.S. Economy?

* Volatile day in the markets * Largest decline in Personal Spending since September 2009 * Wages and Salaries gain slowest in 7 months * December ISM Manufacturing Index down to 53.5 * December Employment growth at 7-month low * 2.6% GDP number will likely be revised downward * U.S. Factory Orders declined 3.6% in December * Oil prices triggering momentum against the dollar * The FOREX markets are beginning to acknowledge U.S. economic weakness * QE4 will accompany a budget-busting economic stimulus * S&P was the only agency penalized by the government for rating sub-prime mortgage AAA * S&P is actually being penalized for downgrading U.S. government debt Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Feb 201530min

A Dove in Hawk’s Clothing – Ep. 49

A Dove in Hawk’s Clothing – Ep. 49

* Fed's official statement released yesterday * Received by the market as hawkish, Fed is still reiterates "patience" * The statement noted unguarded optimism about the U.S. Economy * Fed ignored unstable markets, Europe, oil prices and strength of the dollar * Response: the market sold off and the dollar rallied * Gold declined on Fed's expectations * The Fed's underlying goal may be to talk the dollar up and talk the markets down * Strong dollar buys time * Continued "patience" indicates Fed's true agenda Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

29 Jan 201517min

Weak Earnings and Bad Economic Data Pummel Stocks – Ep. 48

Weak Earnings and Bad Economic Data Pummel Stocks – Ep. 48

* Wall Street spared blizzard only to be buried in bad earnings and bad economic news * December durable goods down 3.4%; expected to come in at +.7 * Consumer confidence up to 102.9; contrarian indicator * Last time consumers were this confident was in the middle of 2007 * Number will collapse when reality has a violent confrontation with perception * P&G earnings down 31% * Caterpillar warned * Microsoft stock down 10% today * UPS announced they overestimated holiday sales * Businesses geared up for a recovery in late 2013 that was not going to happen * Layoffs coming in 2015 * This may give the Fed an excuse to delay rate increase * How can a strong dollar be good for America but a weak euro be good for Europe? Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

28 Jan 201535min

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