Senate Rearranges the Deck Chairs – Ep. 300

Senate Rearranges the Deck Chairs – Ep. 300

No Real Tax Relief
Yesterday the Senate released their version of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, and it is not that different from the House version. There are some differences, some of which I will get into, but the main problem is not the difference, but the similarity. The plans don't deliver any kind of substantial tax relief, in the manner that President Trump refers to as, "the biggest tax cuts ever". It's not even close. For most people, there will be minor tax cuts and for other people there are actually minor tax increases.
Democrats: "I'll Give You Something You Did Not Earn!"
The real problem, again, is that Republicans can't really be Republicans, given how much debt we have. They like to talk about lower taxes - that's how they get elected: "We're going to lower your taxes!". The Democrats are generally the party of, "I'm going to increase your benefits! Vote for me and I will give you something you did not earn." What the Republicans used to say is, "Vote for me and I'll let you keep more of what you did earn." That was really the difference between the Democrats and the Republicans. The Democrats were about taking things from other people and the Republicans were about keeping your stuff.
You Can't Take Away an Entitlement
The problem is, too many Republicans are really Democrats or they're afraid to cut any government spending. At this point, the deficits are so big that you can't really have big tax cuts unless you're willing to cut government spending. Most Republicans are not willing to do that. Sometimes they will vote not to create a new government entitlement, but they will never vote to take something away, which is why they didn't really want to take away Obamacare. A lot of Republicans didn't vote for it, but they are not going to vote to kill it.
Small Government Everywhere but in the Military
The problem is, if you really want to cut spending so you can have tax cuts, where's the money? The defense budget is big, and most Republicans don't want to cut defense - that' s the only place they like big government (in theory) is defense. They want small government everywhere except in the military. So there are not very many Republicans who are willing to cut defense to enable the tax cuts.
So What's Left for Republicans to Cut?
Now you got Social Security and Medicare, but a lot of Social Security recipients vote Republican. So the Republicans don't want to cut Social Security and don't want to cut Medicare because they are afraid of how the voters will react. So that's off the table. You can't cut interest on the debt, unless you're going to default on the debt; nobody wants to do that. In fact, interest on the debt is going to go up as interest rates go up. So what's left that Republicans (in theory) can cut? They are afraid of being labeled mean, heartless, taking away programs for the poor, the needy - so there's really nothing that the Republicans are willing to cut, so they can't give any tax cuts. They don't want to level with their constituents and say that they can't cut your taxes because then, what's the point of voting Republican?

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As The New Year Begins, Will The  Recovery End? – Ep. 40

As The New Year Begins, Will The Recovery End? – Ep. 40

* Falling unemployment trends seem to be over * PMI "unexpectedly" drops to 53.9% * Construction spending "unexpectedly" fell .3% * December ISM fell to 55.5 * Draghi's comments at ECB sparked U.S. Dollar rally despite weak data * Eurozone QE not likely * 2014 was a flat year for gold, despite bad press * Dollar price based on higher interest rate expectations * Price of gold has tripled since 2005 * Gold mining costs rise with inflation * The real bubble is the confidence in central bankers Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Jan 201535min

Christmas Snow Job on Wall Street – Ep. 39

Christmas Snow Job on Wall Street – Ep. 39

Christmas Snow job on Wall Street * Dow ended Christmas Eve Day above 18,000 for second day * Catalyst was bigger than expected revision to Q3 GDP to 5% * Big disconnect between economic performance and expectations * Consumer spending up mostly on healthcare * Inventory increases in expectation of future sales * Data for Q4 is lower * Home sales continue to drop Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Dec 201426min

SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball – Ep. 38

SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball – Ep. 38

SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball * Negative deposit rates in Switzerland send U.S. stocks up 420 points. * Two-day Wall Street rally over 700 points on nothing but Central Bank inflation * Swiss move triggers QE speculation and higher gold prices * Janet Yellen merely suggested the economy is strong enough to raise rates in the future * Meanwhile, economy is slowest since last February Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Dec 201422min

Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her – Ep. 37

Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her – Ep. 37

Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her - Ep. 37 * FOMC wrapped up meeting with Yellen press conference * Most people expected "considerable time" to be dropped * Bloomberg believes "considerable" dropped in favor of "patience" * The Fed didn't change anything * The Fed didn't actually say anything * Markets up on Yellen's optimistic non-news * Why wait to raise interest rates? * The longer the Fed waits to raise rates, the more painful it will be for the economy * What is the Fed's strategy if economy slows down? Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

18 Dec 201425min

You Know the Bubble’s About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice – Ep. 36

You Know the Bubble’s About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice – Ep. 36

You Know the Bubble's About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice Ep. 36 * Oil and Russia viewed to be at the epicenter of this week's market chaos * Why is the oil price dropping? The market anticipates a drop in demand due to global recession * Winding down of QE triggering market instability * Economic data still pointing to weakness * Russia raised interest rates to 17% * Ruble crisis is a "dress rehearsal" for the dollar crisis * Our currency crisis will be worse because of our debt * Euro and Yen rallying * This morning gold was up, down, ended up * Volatility indicates changing trends * A recession in the U.S. means QE4 Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Dec 201424min

Yellen’s Recovery is as real as George ‘s Beach House Ep. 35

Yellen’s Recovery is as real as George ‘s Beach House Ep. 35

Yellen's Recovery is as real as George Costanza's Hamptons Beach House Ep. 35 * Volatile Friday followed by Monday rally trend * The stock market has rallied very high very fast with little technical support. * The gold market had its best week relative to equities. * Only a dozen markets have beaten gold this year. * Rally started with Michigan Consumer Sentiment assisted by Dodd/Frank revisions. * The dollar was mixed at Friday close. * The oil market is indicative of the Fed's movements. * The Fed's history predicts continued to support for bubbles with additional QE, despite reports to the contrary. * QE4 will be bigger than previous QE's and will precipitate higher oil prices. * The pretense that QE is over has fueled the market, but QE4 will trigger the bursting of multiple bubbles. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Dec 201430min

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34 * If oil goes down to $35/barrel we will not be able to produce oil for export at that price. * It is no accident that oil prices are dropping as the Fed is ending QE. * What are the implications for the U.S. Economy if the Oil Bubble bursts? * Good jobs in the industry sector will go away. * Oil sector business loans will default * Investors will lose money. * The fallout will be bigger than the dot com bubble. * If oil was a bubble fueled by cheap Fed money, what's next? * If the collapsing oil prices threaten recession, the Fed may launch QE4. * If the Fed does not launch QE4, other bubbles will be affected. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Dec 201419min

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33 * Catalyst for the rally was the Retail Sales Report * Cars represent the largest part of the gain * Any slight good news is overblown * Bad news is ignored * Economy is not driven by spending * Economy is driven by savings and production * Gold stable and up on the year against the dollar * Those who question the Government's numbers are being called "Truthers" Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Dec 201423min

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