No Such Thing as a Permanent Tax Cut-Ep. 304

No Such Thing as a Permanent Tax Cut-Ep. 304

Buy the Rumor Sell the Fact
One of the things that could de-rail Wall Street enthusiasm is if Republicans are not able to deliver on the promised tax cuts. Of course, even if they are able to deliver, it will be a, "buy the rumor, sell the fact". Especially since the fact is not going to deliver the promises of the rumor, which is more economic growth. These tax cuts are not going to grow the economy because they do not shrink the size of government.
When the Fed Loses Control of the Bond Market
Government continues to grow, despite the tax cuts, meaning that government will have to find an alternative source of revenue, and that alternative source will be deficit spending and money printing, which will be negative for the economy. Ultimately, it will also be negative for the markets - maybe not in the short run, because money printing has not proven to be a negative for the markets thus far; it will only be a negative when it backfires and the Federal Reserve loses control of the bond market and when it can no longer pretend that inflation does not exist.
No Slam Dunk
When you look at the prospects for the tax cuts, I think the Senate is going to vote on Thursday, whether or not to pass its version, of course, if it doesn't make it through the senate, then it's done. Even if it makes it through the Senate, it needs to go through a reconciliation process so that the differences between the Senate and the House versions can be ironed out. Then they have to hope to get everybody to vote for the reconciled version, which is no slam dunk. Apparently, there are about 6 senators who are not fully on board with these tax cuts, who have expressed some reservations. So they have to get most of those 6, otherwise it is not going to work.
Individual Tax Cuts Expire in 2025
One of the more interesting discussions has to do with the fact that in the Senate's version, the individual tax cuts, most of them, anyway, expire in the year 2025. So that's not even a full 10 years from now. Why is that? Why are they making the individual tax cuts expire? What is even worse politically, is that corporate tax cuts are theoretically permanent, or at least they do not come with an expiration date. This is making for bad public relations on all the talk shows: "It's permanent for the rich corporations, but it's only temporary for individuals. It shows that by 2025, a lot of individuals who are getting tax cuts, will actually end up paying higher taxes.
Juggling Deficits
Now the way the Republicans are responding to this criticism just shows you how disingenuous this whole process is. The reason the Senate has to make the individual tax cuts temporary is so that the bill does not increase the deficit by more than $1.4 trillion over these 10 years, so to do that, they had to make the individual tax cuts expire, during these 10 years. During the entire 10 year window the deficit would go up by less than it needs to in order to be able to be approved according to the voting process.
The Whole Thing is a Farce
But at the same time, the senators are saying, "Don't worry about the fact that these tax cuts are temporary because no future Congress is going to allow them to expire. In other words, they are admitting that the whole thing is a sham, because they are using the expiration period to make the impact on the deficit smaller. But they are saying "Oh, it's really not going to make the deficit smaller because we're not going to allow the tax cuts to expire the way we've written it into the bill. In order to be able to pass it, we are going to cancel it, which means the whole thing is a farce. It means the Senate's version of the bill adds much more to the deficit than what the Senators are claiming in order to get the thing passed.
Government on a Credit Card
I've made this point before: No tax cuts are permanent. They are saying, Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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Hollywood Hypocrisy and Gender Pay Gap Fiction – Ep. 55

Hollywood Hypocrisy and Gender Pay Gap Fiction – Ep. 55

* Patricia Arquette claims that there is a still an unfair gender wage gap in the labor market * If that were true, all employers - male and female - would hire women first, because they are more cost effective employees * But they don't * Women who choose to balance family with career often accept lower-paying positions * Women do not make less money for the same work * They make less money for different work * In Hollywood, youth is an asset for women - for men, not as much. * Male action movie stars can earn more because action movies earn more. * Liberal spin promotes a government "solution" for a free market system that is working Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

24 Feb 201529min

Fed’s Open Mouth Operations Having Complications – Ep. 54

Fed’s Open Mouth Operations Having Complications – Ep. 54

* Two days of bad economic news this shortened week * The Fed still says the economy is recovering * Recent FOMC minutes maintains pretense they can raise interest rates * FOMC members are worried about raising rates "too soon" * The Fed is worried about how to remove the word "patient" from communications * How confident can the Fed be in the "recovery" if they still fear raising interest rates? * The "recovery" was just a bubble masquerading as a recovery * If we had a real recovery the Fed could have already raised rates * They are now concerned about weakness overseas * They are worried about a strong dollar * They expressed concerns about the risks of lower oil prices * Low inflation causes concerns * The Fed is clearly paying attention to the negative economic news * Empire State Manufacturing down * Home Builder Confidence at 4-month low * Industrial production weak * PPI number declined .8 * Eventually the economic numbers will force the Fed to acknowledge weakness and resume stimulus Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Feb 201520min

Investor Confidence Sends Stock Indexes to New Highs – Ep. 53

Investor Confidence Sends Stock Indexes to New Highs – Ep. 53

* Friday 13th was not unlucky for Wall Street * S&P 500 traded to an all-time record high * The Dow closed above 18,000 * NASDAQ at almost a 15-year high * Despite overall trend of weak corporate earnings * Weak economic data does not dampen Wall Street's spirits * Central Banks are behind the surge with excess liquidity * Wednesday - Mortgage Applications plunged 9% * Purchases declined 7% following a 2% decline prior week * 10% decline in Mortgage Refinances * Jobless claims up 25,000 from prior week * Biggest back-to-back decline in Retail Sales since October of 2009 * Consumer Confidence is down 2 weeks in a row * Business Inventories rose by just .1% contrary to expectations * Inventory to sales ratio highest since July 2009 * Huge drop in Consumer Sentiment * Jobs number is a lagging indicator * Part-time economy is a double-edged sword Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

14 Feb 201521min

I’m Living in an Economic Twilight Zone – Ep. 52

I’m Living in an Economic Twilight Zone – Ep. 52

* China announces a record trade surplus * Media reports surplus as bad news for China * Because of the strength of the Yuan, Chinese can buy more imports for less * Chinese consumers purchasing more * Chinese businesses manufacturing more * Contrary to press reports these factors point to a strong economy in China * U.S. has record deficits along with a strong dollar * The short term effect of a strong currency is that trade deficits should go down because imports are cheaper * The fact that our trade deficit continues to rise illustrates underlying economic weakness * Media double standard: China trade surplus is bad but U.S. trade deficit is good * Media reports "low rate of unemployment" among college grads, however: * Record number of college graduates are under employed * Only 44% of employed Americans work 30 hours or more per week * In future, the smarter students will skip low-value degrees in favor of work experience * Shake Shack IPO valuation $1.5 billion on $5 million profits * Grilled Cheese Truck: valued at $100 million on negative revenues * Black is white and white is black: Twilight Zone Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Feb 201527min

Despite Slowing Economy, Job Growth Speeds Up – Ep. 51

Despite Slowing Economy, Job Growth Speeds Up – Ep. 51

* Monthly non-farm employment number beat expectations * Upward revisions to prior months * Average hourly earnings number jumped by .5 * Immediate reaction in the market was swift * Dollar up; gold down * Unemployment up * Labor force participation down among younger workers * Jobs number inconsistent with other weak economic data * Layoffs are up * Government is way off on "jobs lost" data * Yesterday's trade deficit was the largest increase recorded * If our economy were strong, our workers would be producing and we would not rely on imports * Trade deficit is subtracted from the GDP * Productivity numbers weaker than expected * How many times can the dollar rally on the same news? Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

7 Feb 201519min

Are Forex Markets Finally Acknowledging the Slowing U.S. Economy?

Are Forex Markets Finally Acknowledging the Slowing U.S. Economy?

* Volatile day in the markets * Largest decline in Personal Spending since September 2009 * Wages and Salaries gain slowest in 7 months * December ISM Manufacturing Index down to 53.5 * December Employment growth at 7-month low * 2.6% GDP number will likely be revised downward * U.S. Factory Orders declined 3.6% in December * Oil prices triggering momentum against the dollar * The FOREX markets are beginning to acknowledge U.S. economic weakness * QE4 will accompany a budget-busting economic stimulus * S&P was the only agency penalized by the government for rating sub-prime mortgage AAA * S&P is actually being penalized for downgrading U.S. government debt Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Feb 201530min

A Dove in Hawk’s Clothing – Ep. 49

A Dove in Hawk’s Clothing – Ep. 49

* Fed's official statement released yesterday * Received by the market as hawkish, Fed is still reiterates "patience" * The statement noted unguarded optimism about the U.S. Economy * Fed ignored unstable markets, Europe, oil prices and strength of the dollar * Response: the market sold off and the dollar rallied * Gold declined on Fed's expectations * The Fed's underlying goal may be to talk the dollar up and talk the markets down * Strong dollar buys time * Continued "patience" indicates Fed's true agenda Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

29 Jan 201517min

Weak Earnings and Bad Economic Data Pummel Stocks – Ep. 48

Weak Earnings and Bad Economic Data Pummel Stocks – Ep. 48

* Wall Street spared blizzard only to be buried in bad earnings and bad economic news * December durable goods down 3.4%; expected to come in at +.7 * Consumer confidence up to 102.9; contrarian indicator * Last time consumers were this confident was in the middle of 2007 * Number will collapse when reality has a violent confrontation with perception * P&G earnings down 31% * Caterpillar warned * Microsoft stock down 10% today * UPS announced they overestimated holiday sales * Businesses geared up for a recovery in late 2013 that was not going to happen * Layoffs coming in 2015 * This may give the Fed an excuse to delay rate increase * How can a strong dollar be good for America but a weak euro be good for Europe? Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

28 Jan 201535min

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