The Worse Things Get, the Less Investors Notice – Ep. 337
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast15 Mars 2018

The Worse Things Get, the Less Investors Notice – Ep. 337

Retail Sales Down Three Months in a Row
I've got so much to talk about today, it's hard to even figure out where to begin. So I'll start with some of the economic data that came out today, in particular, the February Retail Sales number. Remember last month we had a bad number, -.3, the second month in a row we had a decline in retail sales. The expectation was for a big rebound in February, +.4. Now, I suppose the good news, if you are looking for retail sales to pick up is that they revised the January number upward from -.3 to -.1. Still a drop, but not quite as big. But instead of getting a rebound, we got another drop! We got another .1% decline in February. That's a trifecta. Three months in a row of falling retail sales. That hasn't happened in 6 years. This is pretty rare.
Great Jobs, Lousy Sales
Why is this happening? Remember on Friday, we got this "beautiful", too-good-to-be-true, just what the doctor ordered jobs report that said about a million people got jobs. Why didn't any of those million people take their paychecks and spend them at a retailer? Trump is talking about all the great jobs and all the raises that people are getting and all the tax cuts, why are retail sales down for 3 months in a row?
Spike in Inventory Numbers
In fact, we also got some inventory numbers that came out that spiked up because of an 18-month slump in sales. So inventories are building because nobody is buying what's on the shelf. Well, that doesn't make sense if you believe the economy is great and we've got all these jobs. But if you're like me and you've been very skeptical of the economy being good, this is a validation, because Americans are broke.
Borrowing at Record Highs
This is despite the fact that borrowing is at a record high. Consumers are borrowing a lot of money, yet they're not spending it on retailers, what are they doing with the borrowed money? The government is borrowing a lot of money, we're running these huge deficits, yet it is not even affecting retail sales. That is really the goal, they want people to go out and shop, and it's not happening.
Atlanta Fed Again Lowers Q1 GDP Estimate
After the retail sales numbers came out, we got the Atlanta Fed updating their forecast for Q1 GDP. Remember, this is the forecast that was at 5.4% about 5 or 6 weeks ago. Of course, you remember on my podcast, as soon as that came out, I said, "This is crazy. There's no way we're going to be anywhere near that. They will be doing this limbo for weeks and months and they're going to be lowering the bar". On Friday, I reported on my podcast that they has lowered the bar to 2.5%, the lowest forecast since they started forecasting Q1 for 2018. And what I said on Friday was, "They aren't done going lower. there's room for this bar to go down". I said I thought that the GDP for Q1 would be under 2%.
Goldman Sachs Also Lowers Q1 GDP Forecast to 1.9%
Today, after these retail sales numbers, the Atlanta Fed went down to 1.9%. That is a decline of 65% in their forecast from 5 or 6 weeks ago. It's not just the Atlanta Fed. Goldman Sachs is now at 1.9%. And you know what? This is probably not the low water mark. I think there is at least a 50-50 shot that we end up with a zero handle on Q1 GDP.
Borrowing Q2 GDP Growth and Shoving it into Q1
Given how weak the data has been coming in, especially the big trade deficits. The only reason we might end with a 1 handle and not a zero handle is these rising inventories. In the short run, they give a boost to the GDP, but if inventories are rising because nobody is spending, what does that mean? That means that businesses are going to allow the inventories to wind down, they're not going to keep stocking up. So what we're doing is we're borrowing GDP growth from Q2 and we're shoving it into Q1. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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Biden’s Supreme Court Pick Will Ignore the Constitution – Ep 782

Biden’s Supreme Court Pick Will Ignore the Constitution – Ep 782

* Democrats hate the constitution. * The constitution doesn’t need to be interpreted. * Republics protect the minority from the majority. * Founding fathers warned of the evils of democracy. * You can’t have liberty in a democracy, but you can in a republic. * The constitution was written to protect against democracy. * The government that governs best, governs least. Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit. Thanks https://avast.com! INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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What if the World Sanctions America? – Ep 781

What if the World Sanctions America? – Ep 781

* Russian stock market loses big. * Gold’s bullish story strengthens. * Sanctions will have ramifications beyond Russian borders. * Joe Biden does a premature victory dance. Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. it could save you hundreds a year. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Feb 202243min

Sanctions for Russia Mean Higher Inflation for America – Ep 780

Sanctions for Russia Mean Higher Inflation for America – Ep 780

* Bad presidents, like Joe Biden, do not deserve to be honored on Presidents Day. * George Washington was the greatest American in history. * Joe Biden avoids taking questions to avoid giving stupid answers. * Government’s solution to the energy crisis will be rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. * NATO should have been disbanded with the fall of the Soviet Union. * Bitcoin leads risk assets lower, in the opposite direction of gold. * Markets are reacting more to inflation fears than concerns over Russia and Ukraine. * Buying Bitcoin is better than shorting gold. * Hex coin scam epitomizes the problems with Bitcoin. Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through 3/31/22 Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Feb 202250min

Recession Will Make the Inflation Problem Worse – Ep 779

Recession Will Make the Inflation Problem Worse – Ep 779

* Supply will decrease faster than demand. * Fed will fight recession with more inflation. * Democrats bribing voters with gas tax holiday. * American investors watching their wealth evaporate. * Falling Bitcoin proves it’s a poor hedge against the rising inflation. * Russia invading Ukraine is the noise. Inflation is the music. * Dry powder in cash is getting wet. * The trend is not your friend if you’re Cathie Wood. Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved. Thanks Tommy John. Get 20% off your 1st order https://tommyjohn.com/gold. See site for details. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Feb 202256min

The Fed Is Running Out of Minutes – Ep 778

The Fed Is Running Out of Minutes – Ep 778

* Economic data blows away expectations. * Wages are a price and prices are going up because of inflation. * Keynesians can’t even follow their own playbook. * Real demand is determined by supply. * Don’t take free heroin just because you don’t want to waste it. * Fed hawks went the way of the dodo bird. * Fed policy is the opposite of Teddy Roosevelt’s Big Stick policy. One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Feb 202245min

It’s Mission Impossible for the Fed – Ep 777

It’s Mission Impossible for the Fed – Ep 777

* Value stocks becoming the new momentum stocks. * Previous momentum stocks pick up momentum in the wrong direction. * Bitcoin’s reaction to Russia Ukraine tensions prove it’s the opposite of a safe haven. * Consumer sentiment at its gloomiest in 11 years. * Worst inflation numbers since 1982. * Companies like Peloton hiding their price increases in delivery and service fees. * Government is deliberately cooking the books on the CPI. Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold. Thanks Tru Niagen. Save 20% on your first purchase at https://truniagen.com/peter with code PETER INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Feb 20221h 2min

Markets Miss Important Fed Admission – Ep 776

Markets Miss Important Fed Admission – Ep 776

* Momentum stocks rally. * Gold inches higher under everyone’s radar. * Investors distracted by Bitcoin’s bear market rally. * Atlanta Fed President Bostic admits policy will be less loose, not tight. * Original CPI change was intended as a stealth way to cut social security. * Unemployment numbers don’t count people with covid. * New jobs are currently being created by statisticians, not employers. Free $75 credit to boost your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through 3/31/22 Cut your wireless bill to $15/month at https://mintmobile.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Feb 202255min

The Fed Will Lose an Inflation Fight – Ep 775

The Fed Will Lose an Inflation Fight – Ep 775

* Surprise earnings send Nasdaq on a roller coaster. * Companies are paying the price for not raising their prices. * Bitcoin trading above $40k, perhaps for the last time. * $10/gallon gasoline on the horizon. * Rising Euro will be problematic for the US economy. * Jobs report reveals strength in inflation, not the labor market. * Gold market shows investors are waking up to the Fed’s failing inflation fight. * Markets punish discrimination; government rewards discrimination. * Washington DC should pick a more appropriate name for their football team. Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features. Go to https://babbel.com and use promo code GOLD to get 3 additional months when you purchase a 3 month subscription. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

5 Feb 20221h 11min

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