The Worse Things Get, the Less Investors Notice – Ep. 337
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast15 Mars 2018

The Worse Things Get, the Less Investors Notice – Ep. 337

Retail Sales Down Three Months in a Row
I've got so much to talk about today, it's hard to even figure out where to begin. So I'll start with some of the economic data that came out today, in particular, the February Retail Sales number. Remember last month we had a bad number, -.3, the second month in a row we had a decline in retail sales. The expectation was for a big rebound in February, +.4. Now, I suppose the good news, if you are looking for retail sales to pick up is that they revised the January number upward from -.3 to -.1. Still a drop, but not quite as big. But instead of getting a rebound, we got another drop! We got another .1% decline in February. That's a trifecta. Three months in a row of falling retail sales. That hasn't happened in 6 years. This is pretty rare.
Great Jobs, Lousy Sales
Why is this happening? Remember on Friday, we got this "beautiful", too-good-to-be-true, just what the doctor ordered jobs report that said about a million people got jobs. Why didn't any of those million people take their paychecks and spend them at a retailer? Trump is talking about all the great jobs and all the raises that people are getting and all the tax cuts, why are retail sales down for 3 months in a row?
Spike in Inventory Numbers
In fact, we also got some inventory numbers that came out that spiked up because of an 18-month slump in sales. So inventories are building because nobody is buying what's on the shelf. Well, that doesn't make sense if you believe the economy is great and we've got all these jobs. But if you're like me and you've been very skeptical of the economy being good, this is a validation, because Americans are broke.
Borrowing at Record Highs
This is despite the fact that borrowing is at a record high. Consumers are borrowing a lot of money, yet they're not spending it on retailers, what are they doing with the borrowed money? The government is borrowing a lot of money, we're running these huge deficits, yet it is not even affecting retail sales. That is really the goal, they want people to go out and shop, and it's not happening.
Atlanta Fed Again Lowers Q1 GDP Estimate
After the retail sales numbers came out, we got the Atlanta Fed updating their forecast for Q1 GDP. Remember, this is the forecast that was at 5.4% about 5 or 6 weeks ago. Of course, you remember on my podcast, as soon as that came out, I said, "This is crazy. There's no way we're going to be anywhere near that. They will be doing this limbo for weeks and months and they're going to be lowering the bar". On Friday, I reported on my podcast that they has lowered the bar to 2.5%, the lowest forecast since they started forecasting Q1 for 2018. And what I said on Friday was, "They aren't done going lower. there's room for this bar to go down". I said I thought that the GDP for Q1 would be under 2%.
Goldman Sachs Also Lowers Q1 GDP Forecast to 1.9%
Today, after these retail sales numbers, the Atlanta Fed went down to 1.9%. That is a decline of 65% in their forecast from 5 or 6 weeks ago. It's not just the Atlanta Fed. Goldman Sachs is now at 1.9%. And you know what? This is probably not the low water mark. I think there is at least a 50-50 shot that we end up with a zero handle on Q1 GDP.
Borrowing Q2 GDP Growth and Shoving it into Q1
Given how weak the data has been coming in, especially the big trade deficits. The only reason we might end with a 1 handle and not a zero handle is these rising inventories. In the short run, they give a boost to the GDP, but if inventories are rising because nobody is spending, what does that mean? That means that businesses are going to allow the inventories to wind down, they're not going to keep stocking up. So what we're doing is we're borrowing GDP growth from Q2 and we're shoving it into Q1. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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Fed’s Credibility Is Transitory, Not Inflation – Ep 750

Fed’s Credibility Is Transitory, Not Inflation – Ep 750

* CPI data heavily contradicts Fed’s transitory inflation narrative. * Reagan was more popular during a recession than Biden is during this “booming” economy. * The government has too much money on the line not to lie about inflation. * Media’s bias taints their inflation reporting. * Federal Reserve can print money, but they can’t print stuff. * Biden’s Build Back Better plan would have even Keynes rolling in his grave. * Biden considers releasing US strategic oil reserves to China. * Consumer sentiment plunges. * Gold price surges. * Fed won’t try to fight inflation because it will reveal their weak position. * Fed’s policy: Speak loudly when you have no stick. * Falling dollar will be the next domino to fall. * Record number of Americans tell their employer to take job and shove it. * Bitcoin whales conning institutions and bribing politicians. One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/gold Thanks https://avast.com! INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Nov 20211h 15min

Consumers on the Hook for Rising Producer Prices – Ep 749

Consumers on the Hook for Rising Producer Prices – Ep 749

* Supply shortages exacerbated by consumers reading the inflation writing on the wall. * Gas prices at the pump close to all time record highs in most of the country. * Dollar is being propped up by taper. * The crypto market has flipped the gold market. * Joe Biden looks to replace Jerome Powell with Lael Brainard. * Is Elon Musk sending a message to the government, or is he trying to sneak out of his overpriced Tesla stock? * Government should be financed through consumption, not income. Thanks Raycon!. For a limited time, go to https://buyraycon.com/gold for up to 20% off your entire Raycon order. Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through December 31, 2021. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Nov 20211h 7min

Gold’s Surprise Rally Shows Sellers Are Exhausted – Ep 748

Gold’s Surprise Rally Shows Sellers Are Exhausted – Ep 748

* Press knows Biden doesn’t have the aptitude to even answer softball questions. * Record high stock market eyes blue skies ahead. * As Peloton bikes become overpriced clothes racks, Peloton stock becomes dirty laundry. * Gold may end up being the pin that pricks the Bitcoin bubble. * The IRS tricked the middle class. Get your new wireless plan for just $15 a month. https://mintmobile.com/gold Thanks Mack Weldon. For 20% off your first order, visit https://mackweldon.com/gold with promo code GOLD INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

6 Nov 20211h 3min

Fed Finally Launches the Taper, Now What? – Ep 747

Fed Finally Launches the Taper, Now What? – Ep 747

* Markets blessed Fed’s decision to begin tapering. * Jerome Powell says economy is healthy, but requires monetary policy of an economy in crisis. * Full employment is subjective and rarely achieved. * Powellnomics: It’s inappropriate to have interest rates above 0% in an economy that’s not at 100% employment. * Fed knows the economy is hanging by a threads, and that thread is 0% interest rates. * It doesn’t matter who the President of the United States is. What matters is who runs the Federal Reserve. * Dollar falling may be investors buying the rumor and selling the news. * No bad news in sight for gold, and no good news in sight for the dollar. * Don’t pick up pennies in front of steam rollers. * Zillow’s moronic house flipping business model caves. * Don’t confuse brains for a bull market or a bubble. * Taper is fully priced into gold and silver market. * Don’t jump onto a moving train; get on it before it leaves the station. Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit. Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Nov 202155min

Shiba Inu Highlights Bitcoin’s Lack of Scarcity – Ep 746

Shiba Inu Highlights Bitcoin’s Lack of Scarcity – Ep 746

* Nasdaq and S&P finish the week strong. * Robinhood closes the week near its all time low. * Newmont leads gold mining stocks lower. * Gold mines don’t lose missed earnings, they postpone them. * Crypto ships will rise and sink on the same tide of fear and greed. * Inflation is driving up labor costs. * Hypocrisy is the one thing all politicians have in common. Thanks https://avast.com! Thanks https://truebill.com/gold. It could save you hundreds a year. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

30 Okt 202156min

Markets Can’t Ignore Exploding Trade Deficits Forever – Ep 745

Markets Can’t Ignore Exploding Trade Deficits Forever – Ep 745

* US dollar would tank if traders understood implications of economic data. * Trade deficit continues to break records month after month. * Strong economies have trade surpluses; we have a bubble economy. * We’re only consuming and importing because we’re printing a currency the world still values. * Massive trade deficits aren’t a problem until they’re a crisis. * Government pretends rights are privileges so it can tax them. * Moral hazard and rampant fraud will ramp up childcare costs under new Biden plan. One-of-a-kind financing program at https://netsuite.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

29 Okt 202144min

Irrational Exuberance on Steroids – Ep 744

Irrational Exuberance on Steroids – Ep 744

* Elon Musk needs a rocket ship to find Tesla’s PE. * Bakkt Holdings rises on crypto partnership with MasterCard. * Jack Dorsey warns of imminent hyperinflation. * Stanley Druckenmiller doesn’t realize the Fed is the problem. * When politicians aim their weapons at the billionaires, they always hit the middle class the hardest. Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through December 31, 2021. Go to https://bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

27 Okt 202159min

Written off for Dead, Gold Comes Back to Life – Ep 743

Written off for Dead, Gold Comes Back to Life – Ep 743

* Netflix and Tesla stocks make all time highs. * Trump SPAC makes a splash. * Investors buying WeWork SPAC are putting lipstick on a pig. * Gold price gains on inflation news, which means bigger gains may be around the corner. * Oil price increases while oil production decreases. * Inflation in 2022 will eclipse inflation in 2021. * Weak economic indicators signal the opposite of a booming economy. * Inflation is the government’s silent partner. * America’s increased spending and reduced production will be paid for with inflation. * Bitcoin ETF flops. * Logan Paul and Peter Schiff is the collab we didn’t know we needed. Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features. Thanks Tru Niagen. Save 10% on your first purchase at https://truniagen.com/peter with code PETER INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Okt 20211h 1min

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