Most Banks Would Fail Stagflation Stress Test – Ep. 365
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast23 Juni 2018

Most Banks Would Fail Stagflation Stress Test – Ep. 365

Stagflation
Nobody realized just how bad the economy is, but they're about to find out. All of the economic data that came out this week points to stagflation, if you look at the data. Look at the Philly Fed - dropped down to 19. It is the biggest drop in 4 years; the lowest since the election. Look at the manufacturing PMI - those numbers came out yesterday - dropped to a 7-month low, the lowest since November 2017. If you look at the actual numbers - new orders fell sharply but input cost rose to their highest since September 2013. So you have rising input costs, yo have falling orders; to me this is all stagflation.
The Fed's Stress Test was too Easy
As I pointed out, even Alan Greenspan, not too long ago on CNBC talking about stagflation. He can see it. But you know who can't see stagflation? anyone at the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve announced the results of their stress tests, and surprise, surprise! Everybody passed. So the Federal Reserve designed tests to measure the banks that they regulate would perform under adverse economic scenarios. First of all, if a teacher gives a test, and everybody gets an A, then the test was too easy. Clearly the Federal Reserve designed this test so that everybody would pass, which of course, is why the test means nothing. Obviously they don't want to announce that the banking system is not sound, so they want to run these bogus stress tests to create a false sense of confidence in the banking system.
Look at the Fed's Assumptions
I want to actually look at the stress test. You really can't tell anything unless you look at the assumptions. What type of stress is the Federal Reserve assuming the economy might encounter? First of all, you have the most likely scenario they assume - their base case. Their base case scenario, which is their forecast is that everything is great. The economy continues to grow 2 - 2.5%/year - a little bit more this year but then it slows down. Inflation stays right at 2%, interest rates stay about where they are, unemployment goes a little bit lower - everything is great, right? Now, their adverse scenario goes as follows: the U.S. has a mild recession, and during that mild recession the Federal Reserve is able to lower interest rates down to about zero again. The yield on the 10-year falls to about .75%, so 10-year yields fall below 1%; Inflation falls; they don't say how low but it falls below 2%, unemployment rises and peaks at 7%. This is their adverse scenario. Interest rates go back down to zero. That doesn't sound that horrible. Inflation goes down - what is so horrible about lower inflation? This is not that bad.
The Elephant in the Room is Stagflation
But then, you've got to look at their extreme. In that scenario, we have a bigger recession, and according to the Federal Reserve, there is a global aversion to buying government debt, like bonds. So because of that aversion, the yield on the 10-year doesn't fall to .75% the way it does under the adverse scenario, it stays where it is - right around 3%. So because interest rates do not fall, there is a bigger decline in asset prices - I think they have a 65% decline in stock prices, a 30% decline in real estate prices, unemployment rises to 10%, and inflation falls to 1%. I can't help but laugh at this severely adverse scenario, where inflation is only 1% and the Fed is able, again to lower interest rates down to zero. What is the Fed missing? The elephant in the room: stagflation.
The 2008 Financial Crisis Was Not Even Close to the Worst Case Scenario
There's an old saying that generals always prepare to fight the last war, and the same is true with central bankers. What was the last war? It was the 2008 Financial Crisis. What happened during that crisis? Interest rates went down, inflation went down, the dollar went up (by the way, the adverse scenario also assumes appreciation of the dollar, Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Avsnitt(1085)

Unemployment and Prices Rising Together – Ep 710

Unemployment and Prices Rising Together – Ep 710

* Inflation spilling into the labor market. * Pressures pushing dollar down and costs up. * What does Basel III mean for gold? * CNBC pundits are as clueless now as they were in 2006 and 2007. Go to https://Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit. RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

2 Juli 202144min

Government Protected Monopolies Are the Only Ones to Fear – Ep 709

Government Protected Monopolies Are the Only Ones to Fear – Ep 709

* Facebook anti-trust case thrown out of court. * Breaking up monopolies protects the competitors, not the consumers. * John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil was a perfect model of free market efficiency. * Consumers are indirectly price gouged by labor unions. * Labor unions destroyed jobs and wages for laborers. * Government unions should be illegal. * San Francisco buys $70,000 tents for the homeless. Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through Sept. 30, 2021. RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

30 Juni 202158min

Everything Is Awesome Because the Fed Says so – Ep 708

Everything Is Awesome Because the Fed Says so – Ep 708

* Bond market sells off for opposite reason it rallied a week prior. * Institutions are not rushing in to buy #Bitcoin. * Huge Socialist agenda moving forward using #covid as the excuse. * #Biden vows to grow government and use it against entrepreneurs and small business owners. * We’ve barely begun to pay the piper for all the inflation the Fed has created. Thanks Tru Niagen. Get 10% off your first purchase as a new customer by going to https://www.truniagen.com/peter with the promo code PETER RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

27 Juni 202147min

Political Hypocrisy on Inflation Lets Fed Escape Blame – Ep 707

Political Hypocrisy on Inflation Lets Fed Escape Blame – Ep 707

* Fed triples its estimated duration of transitory inflation. * Republicans have no credibility to criticize government spending and money printing. * Fed vows to make the rich richer and the poor poorer by focusing on employment rather than inflation. * Jerome Powell refuses to acknowledge whether being paid more to not work discourages employment. * Republicans won’t put blame on the Fed, because they benefit more from blaming the Democrats. * Maxine Waters praises Jerome Powell on his irresponsible leadership. Redeem your free trial at https://Literati.com/Gold RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Juni 20211h 1min

Investors Call Bullard Bluff – Ep 706

Investors Call Bullard Bluff – Ep 706

* Markets begin to comprehend the Fed’s powerless against inflation. * Oil prices may put the nail in the coffin of transitory inflation. * Crypto traders unload their Bitcoin on Microstrategy.
Microstrategy’s diamond hands are made of glass. * Barry Silbert hesitates on buying GBTC shares. * Tesla’s Bitcoin gamble enters into the red. * Government creating moral hazards in rental housing markets. * Why pay your rent when the government will pay it for you? * The government has become our master and we’re all its servants. * Liberals care about stacking the deck, not fairness. Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/Peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through June 30, 2021. RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Juni 20211h 4min

Juneteenth Is Only the Beginning – Ep 705

Juneteenth Is Only the Beginning – Ep 705

* Democrats using racism to pass the legislation they’ve always wanted. RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Juni 202141min

The Fed’s “No Stick” Monetary Policy – Ep 704

The Fed’s “No Stick” Monetary Policy – Ep 704

* Jim Bullard undoes Jerome Powell’s damage control. * Fed goes from not thinking about thinking about raising interest rates to now talking about talking about raising interest rates. * Fed’s monetary tightening is as believable as George Costanza’s house in The Hamptons. * Bitcoin looks for lower support. Thanks Clear. For a limited time, get your first two months of Clear for free by going to https://Clearme.com/GOLD2 and use the promo code GOLD2 RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Juni 202151min

Inflation Doves Coming Home to Roost – Ep 703

Inflation Doves Coming Home to Roost – Ep 703

* Trade data uncovers what the CPI was hiding. * Fed acknowledges the obvious; inflation is higher than 2%. * Fed gives no indication of taper plans. * Jerome Powell out-doves himself again. * Paul Tudor Jones gets a gift from the Fed. * JP Morgan does not believe inflation is mandatory. * Economy has a collision course coming with reality. Go to https://Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit. RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Juni 202140min

Populärt inom Business & ekonomi

badfluence
framgangspodden
varvet
rss-jossan-nina
rss-borsens-finest
rss-svart-marknad
uppgang-och-fall
lastbilspodden
affarsvarlden
fill-or-kill
avanzapodden
24fragor
kapitalet-en-podd-om-ekonomi
rss-kort-lang-analyspodden-fran-di
rss-inga-dumma-fragor-om-pengar
borsmorgon
rss-dagen-med-di
bathina-en-podcast
rss-en-rik-historia
montrosepodden