Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep.  405

Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep. 405

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Look Carefully at the Price Index
The GDP number came out yesterday; 3/5% did slightly beat the consensus of 3.3%, but remember, for a while the Atlanta Fed was looking for a print in the 4's. But the New York Fed was at 2.2%, so the print was much higher than what the New York Fed was looking for. But if you look at the internals, the biggest reason that we got 3.5% was because of the price index - the "deflator". Last quarter, when we had 4.2%, the government said that prices rose at an annualized rate of 3%. But in Q3, they said that prices only rose at an annualized rate of 1.7%.
Calling B.S. on that Number
Now I call B.S. on that number. I don't think we had that significant a slowdown in the annualized rate of inflation between the second quarter of the year and the third quarter of the year. If the 3% inflation rate had held steady, then Q2 GDP would have been just 2.2%. So, obviously not nearly as good a headline as 3.5%. We'll see if they revise this thing down after the election. Obviously the Republicans can still campaign on 3.5% even if it turns out that 3.5% was an over-estimate.
Largest Trade Deficit in History
I think new data is going to come out - particularly on trade. Donald Trump is out there again bragging about how we're winning the trade war. I talked about that. That was the topic of my last podcast because we just printed the worse Merchandise Trade Deficit on a monthly basis in U.S. history.
Trade Deficit Amounted to the Largest Subtraction from GDP in 33 Years
The trade deficit was so large in the third quarter that it subtracted 1.78 percentage points from the GDP number. That is the largest subtraction from GDP that we have had from trade during a quarter in 33 years. What happens, when you calculate GDP, you take government spending, you take consumer spending and business spending and then you add in your trade surplus or you subtract out your trade deficit. Now, since we never have a trade surplus, trade is always a net subtraction from the GDP.

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The Fed's Forever Blowing Bubbles - Ep 1051

The Fed's Forever Blowing Bubbles - Ep 1051

Peter Schiff critiques the bursting crypto bubble, warns of impending market collapses, and discusses the implications of reckless monetary policies.This episode is sponsored by Policygenius. Head to https://policygenius.com/gold to compare free life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the current financial landscape, emphasizing the ongoing collapse of the Bitcoin and crypto bubbles, while raising concerns about the potential fallout in other sectors, including AI and housing. He analyzes the precarious state of MicroStrategy and its impact on Bitcoin prices, challenging the validity of its business model. Schiff addresses the Federal Reserve's contradictory stance on inflation and tariffs, criticizing the government's fiscal policies that have led to rampant market bubbles. With insights into the healthcare crisis and IRS controversies, Schiff presents a stark reality of the economic situation, reinforcing his perspective on the unsustainable nature of current financial practices.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:54 The Crypto Bubble and Market Bubbles04:14 AI Bubble and Its Potential07:05 Bitcoin's Decline and Market Reactions12:43 MicroStrategy and Bitcoin Treasury Companies24:09 Debate Challenges and Tokenized Gold35:18 FOMC Meeting Minutes and Job Reports36:50 Labor Market and Inflation Insights37:45 Tariffs and Their Impact on Prices39:14 Quantitative Easing and the Dollar41:04 Healthcare Crisis and Insurance Issues48:43 FOIA Lawsuit Against the IRS53:10 Publicity Stunt and Bank Shutdown01:09:21 Conclusion and Final ThoughtsFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#crypto #inflation #MicroStrategyOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

20 Nov 1h 9min

Crypto Carnage as Gold Eats Bitcoin's Lunch - Ep 1050

Crypto Carnage as Gold Eats Bitcoin's Lunch - Ep 1050

Peter Schiff dissects the crypto market collapse, evaluates gold’s surge in value, and critiques government policies impacting housing affordability.This episode is sponsored by Policygenius. Head to https://policygenius.com/gold to compare free life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the recent turmoil in the financial markets, highlighting the stark contrasts between precious metals and the declining crypto sector. He discusses the surge in gold and silver prices amidst government actions, the implications of potential government shutdowns, and the risky landscape of crypto investments, particularly Bitcoin's significant drop against gold. Schiff emphasizes the government's detrimental role in housing affordability and the proposed measures that could exacerbate financial instability. As always, he provides keen insights rooted in economic reality, urging listeners to consider the long-term implications of current market trends and policies.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:54 Precious Metals Market Update05:08 Government Shutdown and Its Impact on Gold06:52 Crypto Market Analysis and Predictions10:28 Trump's Influence on Crypto and Economic Implications20:56 Fannie and Freddie: The Trump Trade31:29 Government's Role in Housing Affordability32:08 Impact of Tariffs on Housing Costs32:29 Immigration and Construction Labor Costs34:33 Credit and Mortgage Guarantees37:19 Proposed 50-Year Mortgages40:06 Eliminating FICO Score Minimums43:27 Assumable and Portable Mortgages54:29 Investment Opportunities in Gold and Silver01:01:43 Conclusion and Upcoming PodcastFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#crypto #bitcoin #goldOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Nov 1h 1min

Data Confirms "Hot" US Economy Is Ice Cold - Ep 1049

Data Confirms "Hot" US Economy Is Ice Cold - Ep 1049

Peter Schiff examines the paradox of a hot U.S. economy amid cold realities, discusses cryptocurrency, and critiques political misconceptions and tariffs.This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the free “Demystifying AI” at https://netsuite.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the stark contrast between the perceived strength of the U.S. economy and its underlying fragility. Listeners will gain valuable insights as Peter analyzes the gold market, Bitcoin, and economic realities that challenge political narratives. The discussion also touches on the implications of the New York mayoral election, misconceptions about communism, and Trump's contentious tariffs. With a keen focus on the economic policies shaping our lives, this episode is essential for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of today's financial landscape. Join Peter as he cuts through the noise and reveals the truth behind the headlines.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:56 Gold Market Analysis03:24 Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Insights12:18 Economic Reality vs. Political Claims19:04 New York Mayoral Election and Economic Policies31:13 The Impact of Free Public Transportation32:17 Misconceptions About Communism34:36 Trump's Unconstitutional Tariffs42:37 The Filibuster Debate55:32 Gold and Silver Market InsightsFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#USEconomy #CryptoInsights #NewYorkPoliticsOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

8 Nov 58min

Powell Dashes Hopes for a December Rate Cut - Ep 1048

Powell Dashes Hopes for a December Rate Cut - Ep 1048

Peter Schiff critiques the Federal Reserve's recent rate decisions, analyzes the implications for inflation and interest rates, and discusses gold's pivotal role in today's economy.This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the implications of the Federal Reserve's recent decisions, including its latest interest rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening. He unpacks the impact of these policies on inflation, the economy, and the stock market, while emphasizing the persistent threats posed by excessive monetary expansion. Schiff critiques the Fed's narrative of economic strength, arguing that the increasing gold price signals a deeper financial instability. Key discussions include the contrasting fates of gold and Bitcoin, the true state of employment, and the dangers of overvalued tech stocks. This episode is a must-listen for those seeking clarity on the current economic landscape and the potential consequences of the Fed's actions.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:55 Federal Reserve's Recent Actions02:20 Impact on the Economy and Markets03:15 Discussion on Quantitative Tightening06:29 Interest Rates and Inflation17:31 Gold Market Analysis24:41 New Product Announcement at Schiff Gold31:39 Setting Up the Infrastructure31:49 Gold as a Medium of Exchange33:00 Bitcoin vs. Gold37:07 Stock Market and AI Valuations42:44 Tariffs and American Workers47:11 Inflation and the Fed's Policies55:09 Investment Opportunities and Final ThoughtsFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#FederalReserve #InterestRates #GoldMarketAnalysisOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

30 Okt 56min

Gold Successfully Tests $4k Support - Ep 1047

Gold Successfully Tests $4k Support - Ep 1047

Peter Schiff examines gold and silver market volatility, critiques the Fed's misguided policies, and discusses the implications of Trump's influence on the economy.This episode is sponsored by Policygenius. Head to https://policygenius.com/gold to compare free life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the ongoing volatility in the gold and silver markets, analyzing recent corrections and investor sentiment. He discusses the implications of economic indicators and Federal Reserve actions, as well as the contrasting dynamics between Bitcoin and gold. Schiff critiques media portrayals of market trends, emphasizing the persistent skepticism surrounding gold investments. With insights on Newmont's earnings and a critical examination of government spending, Schiff articulates his perspective on the future of precious metals and the broader economic landscape. Listeners can expect a thought-provoking analysis that challenges mainstream narratives and reinforces Schiff's established views on financial prudence and market realities.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:55 Gold and Silver Market Volatility03:40 Gold's Correction and Market Reactions07:47 Investor Sentiment and Media Coverage13:53 Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions20:54 Newmont's Earnings and Market Skepticism27:38 Bitcoin vs. Gold: Market Dynamics29:45 Trump's Ballroom and Crypto Industry Influence34:20 Trump's Ego and the National Debt35:39 Government Shutdowns and Trump's Legacy37:41 Trade Negotiations and Reagan's Legacy41:34 Government Investments and Market Interference48:15 Crypto Collateral and Market Risks55:57 YouTube Shadow Banning and Subscriber Growth01:03:55 Gold and Silver Investment OpportunitiesFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#goldmarket #cryptocurrency #investingstrategiesOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

24 Okt 1h 5min

Crypto Industry & Wall Street Unite Against Gold - Gold Wrap

Crypto Industry & Wall Street Unite Against Gold - Gold Wrap

Join Peter Schiff for a special Tuesday Market Wrap episode of the Schiff Gold Podcast, where he dives into the historic highs and recent volatility in the gold and silver markets. Originally planning to cover two weeks of market activity in a single Friday wrap-up, Schiff decided to address the significant happenings of the past three days immediately. On Monday, gold prices set a new all-time high, nearly touching $4,380, before experiencing a dramatic sell-off. Despite this, gold closed the week robustly above $4,250. Schiff discusses the widespread speculative sentiment from the crypto community and Wall Street, dismissing the notion that the gold bull market is over. Emphasizing the structural strengths and ongoing consolidation phase of gold and silver, Schiff reassures investors of the long-term uptrend. He also criticizes Bitcoin proponents claiming Bitcoin will surpass gold, labeling it as wishful thinking. Schiff highlights the resurgence of gold's appeal over Bitcoin, driven by massive structural changes and global tendencies to shift back to the gold standard. With energy costs falling, gold mining stocks are posed for significant earnings. Schiff underscores the value of using this pullback as a buying opportunity for both new and long-term investors in gold and silver.Our Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Okt 38min

Jamie Dimon Admits Peter Schiff Was Right - Ep 1046

Jamie Dimon Admits Peter Schiff Was Right - Ep 1046

Peter Schiff analyzes gold's surge, critiques Jamie Dimon's admission on gold's rationality, and discusses the impending dollar crisis.This episode is sponsored by Policygenius. Head to https://policygenius.com/gold to compare free life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the pressing realities of today's economic landscape, highlighting Jamie Dimon's recent admission regarding gold's significance in investment portfolios. Schiff discusses the meteoric rise of gold and silver, drawing parallels to historical economic shifts reminiscent of the 1970s. He provides critical insights into the dollar's declining status, the implications of global economic changes, and the stark contrast between gold and Bitcoin. As the market dynamics evolve, Schiff emphasizes the urgent need for investors to reconsider their positions, particularly as the risks associated with Bitcoin become increasingly apparent. Tune in for a comprehensive analysis that challenges mainstream narratives and reinforces Schiff's steadfast belief in the enduring value of gold.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:55 Gold's Meteoric Rise and Media Attention01:56 Silver's Performance and Investment Advice03:55 Historical Context: 1970s vs. 2020s05:37 The Dollar Standard and Global Economic Shifts07:21 Jamie Dimon's Admission and Rationality of Gold09:56 Gold's Future and Wall Street's Realization20:31 Current Market Update and Urgent Investment Advice22:33 Comparing Gold and Bitcoin23:46 Fed Policies and Historical Perspectives25:05 China's Trade and Economic Position30:53 Bitcoin's Decline and Market Manipulation37:01 Closing Remarks and Upcoming Events34:27 Alan Greenspan's Perspective on Gold35:27 The Case for Investing in Gold Stocks38:53 China's Trade Dynamics and the US Relationship43:52 Bitcoin's Decline and the Rise of Gold01:00:01 Conclusion and Upcoming EventsFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#goldinvestment #bitcoincrash #marketupdateOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

16 Okt 1h

Gold Tops $4K as World Prepares to Go Off Dollar Standard - Ep 1045

Gold Tops $4K as World Prepares to Go Off Dollar Standard - Ep 1045

Peter Schiff examines gold's historic surge past $4,000, critiques the dollar's decline, and warns of looming economic crises and fiscal irresponsibility.This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the free “CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning” at https://netsuite.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the alarming rise of gold prices, which recently surpassed $4,000, signaling a potential dollar crisis. He explores the historical context of gold's surge, drawing parallels to the economic turmoil of the 1970s when the United States abandoned the gold standard. Schiff emphasizes the implications of central banks diversifying away from the dollar and warns of the impending economic collapse as the U.S. grapples with unsustainable fiscal policies. With personal anecdotes and keen insights, Schiff articulates the urgency for investors to reconsider their strategies in light of these developments, positioning gold as a crucial safe haven amid rising inflation and currency devaluation. Tune in for a thought-provoking discussion on the future of the global economy and the significance of gold in these turbulent times.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:56 Gold's Historic Surge04:57 The 1970s Gold Standard and Its Impact10:06 The Dollar's Decline and Global Implications17:24 Personal Anecdote and Upcoming Events18:43 The Shift from Dollar to Gold Standard20:15 Central Banks and Fiscal Policies26:39 The Looming Dollar Crisis31:37 Gold's Rising Significance on Wall Street32:19 Personal Experiences with Gold Predictions34:03 Gold vs. Bitcoin: A Media Bias36:32 Gold as the Canary in the Coal Mine38:27 Kudlow's Dismissal of Gold's Warning41:24 The Looming Economic Crisis43:52 Investment Strategies Amidst Economic Uncertainty47:44 The Global Economic Shift59:57 Final Thoughts and Upcoming EventsFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#gold #dollarcrisis #economiccollapseOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

9 Okt 59min

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