Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep.  405

Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep. 405

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Look Carefully at the Price Index
The GDP number came out yesterday; 3/5% did slightly beat the consensus of 3.3%, but remember, for a while the Atlanta Fed was looking for a print in the 4's. But the New York Fed was at 2.2%, so the print was much higher than what the New York Fed was looking for. But if you look at the internals, the biggest reason that we got 3.5% was because of the price index - the "deflator". Last quarter, when we had 4.2%, the government said that prices rose at an annualized rate of 3%. But in Q3, they said that prices only rose at an annualized rate of 1.7%.
Calling B.S. on that Number
Now I call B.S. on that number. I don't think we had that significant a slowdown in the annualized rate of inflation between the second quarter of the year and the third quarter of the year. If the 3% inflation rate had held steady, then Q2 GDP would have been just 2.2%. So, obviously not nearly as good a headline as 3.5%. We'll see if they revise this thing down after the election. Obviously the Republicans can still campaign on 3.5% even if it turns out that 3.5% was an over-estimate.
Largest Trade Deficit in History
I think new data is going to come out - particularly on trade. Donald Trump is out there again bragging about how we're winning the trade war. I talked about that. That was the topic of my last podcast because we just printed the worse Merchandise Trade Deficit on a monthly basis in U.S. history.
Trade Deficit Amounted to the Largest Subtraction from GDP in 33 Years
The trade deficit was so large in the third quarter that it subtracted 1.78 percentage points from the GDP number. That is the largest subtraction from GDP that we have had from trade during a quarter in 33 years. What happens, when you calculate GDP, you take government spending, you take consumer spending and business spending and then you add in your trade surplus or you subtract out your trade deficit. Now, since we never have a trade surplus, trade is always a net subtraction from the GDP.

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Taper Already Priced In. Now What? – Ep 734

Taper Already Priced In. Now What? – Ep 734

* Less dovish is not hawkish. * Mother of all bear markets in bonds may have just begun. * Republicans only care about deficits and spending when Democrats are in charge. * Plans for minting $1 trillion platinum coin would officially make the U.S. a banana republic. * 
Increase in home inventory could lead to decrease in home prices. * Standard of living will drop for American service workers as their pay decreases and the prices of products they buy increase. * Bitcoin can’t be digital gold if Bitcoin trades the opposite of gold. * Buying Bitcoin is gambling, not investing, and governments regulate gambling. Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features. Thanks https://avast.com! INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Sep 20211h 7min

The Fed That Cried Taper – Ep 733

The Fed That Cried Taper – Ep 733

* Fed says the economy is great, but they will maintain the emergency policies they put in place when the economy was terrible. * Fed will always choose to fight unemployment over #inflation. * Fed turns blind eye to inflation because the alternative is a complete economic implosion. * Fed’s policies disproportionately hurt African Americans. * Republicans only care about the debt ceiling when they can use it as a political weapon. * Jerome Powell dismisses concerns over #Evergrande and excess corporate leverage. * Gold will explode and the dollar will implode when markets start to realize the #Fed keeps crying wolf. * Gold went up with safe havens while Bitcoin fell with risk assets. Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through September 30, 2021. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Sep 202145min

Paying More, but Buying Less – Ep 732

Paying More, but Buying Less – Ep 732

* China won’t let Evergrande be the next Lehman Brothers. * Fed took us 1 step forward and 100 steps back. * Higher retail sales doesn’t mean consumers are buying more. * Americans are least likely to buy a new car since 1974. * Sweden sets successful example for dealing with Covid. * America is worse off for invading Iraq. Go to https://Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit. For a limited time, get 40% off a Calm Premium subscription at https://Calm.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

18 Sep 202154min

When There’s Too Much Money, There’s Never Enough Stuff – Ep 731

When There’s Too Much Money, There’s Never Enough Stuff – Ep 731

* Take the CPI numbers with a grain of salt. * The CPI will catch up to the PPI. * Fed’s new definition of transitory means a permanent reduction in standard of living. * The problem isn’t a shortage of stuff, it’s an excess of money. * Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. * Consumers are expecting higher prices. * Gold stocks mark potential turning point. * Inflation will pay for government spending, middle class will pay for inflation. * Hedge funds buy preferential tax treatment from politicians. Thanks Raycon! Go To https://buyraycon.com/gold for 15% off your entire Raycon order. Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Sep 202157min

Government Is Consistent; It Always Lies – Ep 730

Government Is Consistent; It Always Lies – Ep 730

* Producer Price Index numbers come in higher than expected for 9th month in a row. * Inflation trends show no sign of being transitory. * When you properly define inflation, you know exactly who’s causing it. * Bitcoin whales want the minnow’s cash. * There are more job openings than unemployed people. * Left shows its true colors after hate crime against Larry Elder. * 
Media buries stories of racist Democrats. * The government took away our freedom so the terrorists wouldn’t have to. * Tax havens keep a lid on taxes everywhere else. Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through September 30, 2021. Become a Firstleaf member and get 6 bottles of wine for $29.95 and free shipping https://TryFirstLeaf.com/GOLD INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

11 Sep 20211h 6min

Let’s Replace Labor Day With Entrepreneur Day – Ep 729

Let’s Replace Labor Day With Entrepreneur Day – Ep 729

* Grover Cleveland was really a libertarian and one of our greatest presidents. * The populist movement lead to Labor Day and ultimately in 1913 to the The Federal Income tax, The Federal Reserve, and the popular election of U.S. Senators. * The Woodrow Wilson presidency proved to be a disaster for America. * Washington incumbents have rigged the system. * Workers have benefited from entrepreneurs, despite the drag of labor unions. * Henry Ford’s risk taking resulted in higher wages for his workers and cheaper cars for his customers. * Business owners are in the crosshairs of the government. Get an extra 3 months Free on a one year package: https://expressvpn.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

6 Sep 202159min

Summer Data Swoon Puts Fall Taper in Doubt – Ep 728

Summer Data Swoon Puts Fall Taper in Doubt – Ep 728

* Jobs numbers disappoint expectations, but Biden brags. * Inflation expectations highest since just before 2008 financial crisis. * AOC pressures Biden to nominate a more woke Fed chair. * Fed causing a lack of savings, which pushes up asset prices and makes the rich richer. * Gold prices calling Fed’s bluff on tightening. * If Bitcoin is better than gold, Ethereum must be better than Bitcoin. * Markets not sure if bad news is good news or if bad news is bad news. Get your new wireless plan for just $15 a month. https://mintmobile.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Sep 20211h 2min

Tapering the Taper Talk – Ep 727

Tapering the Taper Talk – Ep 727

* Powell offers no clues on taper timetable. * Powell vows to keep interest rates low until QE is finished. * Powel blames price increases on exploding demand and lack of supply. * Powel blames inflation on the public’s expectations. * Fed’s only goal is to delay the inevitable crisis as long as possible. * Invest in gold stocks before they recover ground they never should have lost. * Afghanistan proved to the world that the US is no longer a military or economic super power. * America’s biggest export may soon be our used cars. For a limited time, get 40% off a Calm Premium subscription at https://calm.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

28 Aug 202154min

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