Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep.  405

Numbers Always Look Good When Recessions Begin – Ep. 405

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Look Carefully at the Price Index
The GDP number came out yesterday; 3/5% did slightly beat the consensus of 3.3%, but remember, for a while the Atlanta Fed was looking for a print in the 4's. But the New York Fed was at 2.2%, so the print was much higher than what the New York Fed was looking for. But if you look at the internals, the biggest reason that we got 3.5% was because of the price index - the "deflator". Last quarter, when we had 4.2%, the government said that prices rose at an annualized rate of 3%. But in Q3, they said that prices only rose at an annualized rate of 1.7%.
Calling B.S. on that Number
Now I call B.S. on that number. I don't think we had that significant a slowdown in the annualized rate of inflation between the second quarter of the year and the third quarter of the year. If the 3% inflation rate had held steady, then Q2 GDP would have been just 2.2%. So, obviously not nearly as good a headline as 3.5%. We'll see if they revise this thing down after the election. Obviously the Republicans can still campaign on 3.5% even if it turns out that 3.5% was an over-estimate.
Largest Trade Deficit in History
I think new data is going to come out - particularly on trade. Donald Trump is out there again bragging about how we're winning the trade war. I talked about that. That was the topic of my last podcast because we just printed the worse Merchandise Trade Deficit on a monthly basis in U.S. history.
Trade Deficit Amounted to the Largest Subtraction from GDP in 33 Years
The trade deficit was so large in the third quarter that it subtracted 1.78 percentage points from the GDP number. That is the largest subtraction from GDP that we have had from trade during a quarter in 33 years. What happens, when you calculate GDP, you take government spending, you take consumer spending and business spending and then you add in your trade surplus or you subtract out your trade deficit. Now, since we never have a trade surplus, trade is always a net subtraction from the GDP.

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The Trump Crypto Bubble Already Burst - Ep 1013

The Trump Crypto Bubble Already Burst - Ep 1013

Peter Schiff covers market trends, inflation fears, Trump’s tariffs, crypto decline, and promotes his wife's music on Spotify.My wife's songs. https://open.spotify.com/artist/2f3z6IPGfomCl9FsJeyb8dPublic Rec - Upgrade your wardrobe instantly and save 20% off with the code GOLD at https://publicrec.com/peterSelectQuote - Get the RIGHT life insurance for YOU, for LESS, at https://selectquote.com/schiffPeter Schiff discusses the impact of stagflation on the US economy, significant market changes, and the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. He highlights falling consumer confidence, the influence of tariffs, and potential moves in gold and oil prices. Schiff also critiques Federal Reserve policies and addresses issues in the US automotive and trade industries. Lastly, he reflects on personal memories and shares updates on his and his wife's recent projects. 🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Market Overview01:10 US Treasury Market Rally01:52 Stagflation Concerns02:41 Consumer Confidence and Inflation04:33 Oil Prices and Economic Slowdown07:04 Bitcoin and Crypto Market Analysis14:17 Gold Market Insights21:36 MicroStrategy and Bitcoin Strategy27:44 Personal Announcements and Reflections30:42 Promoting My Wife's Music31:21 Upcoming Song Release35:06 Silver Market Update36:06 Trade and Tariffs Discussion40:26 Understanding VAT and Tariffs53:36 Critique of Government Spending57:44 Conclusion#Bitcoin #Gold #CryptoOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Feb 56min

Markets Tank as Stagflation Rears its Head - Ep 1012

Markets Tank as Stagflation Rears its Head - Ep 1012

Markets dropped sharply; Dow down 750 pts, S&P 1.7%, Nasdaq 2.2%. Rise in stagflation feared, weak economic data, high inflation. Gold stocks hit, despite gold's gains. Japanese inflation surge discussed. Remembering Irwin Schiff.Get 25% off your subscription or try the app FREE for seven days at https://fitbod.me/gold.LinkedIn.com/SCHIFF to post your job for free. Terms and conditions applyPeter provides a comprehensive analysis of the recent downturn in the U.S. stock markets, with notable losses across major indexes due to a Friday rout. He highlights the significant declines in the Dow Jones, S&P, NASDAQ, and particularly the Russell 2000, which has entered correction territory. Peter explains the broader implications of rising inflation expectations and deteriorating consumer confidence, the impact on existing home sales, and the worrying data from the PMI reports. He discusses the Federal Reserve's lack of strategy for stagflation and critiques their handling of inflation expectations. The episode also covers international economic concerns, including rising Japanese inflation and its effects on global markets. Peter emphasizes the potential of gold stocks despite recent declines and encourages investment in Euro Pacific's gold fund, detailing the strong earnings reports from gold mining companies. The segment concludes with a poignant tribute to his father, Irwin Schiff, highlighting his controversial stance on income tax enforcement and offering insights from Irwin's speeches and writings.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Introduction and Market Overview00:59 Stock Market Performance Analysis03:01 Impact on Gold Stocks04:11 Stagflation Concerns and Fed's Response06:30 Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations11:58 Economic Data and Market Reactions17:32 Japanese Inflation and Global Implications25:06 Gold Stocks Performance and Investment Advice35:22 Election Fever in Germany36:26 Italy's Remodeling Program: A Case of Government Waste39:31 Germany's Political Landscape: A Deep Dive50:52 Remembering Irwin Schiff: A Personal Tribute56:21 The Federal Income Tax Debate01:04:23 Closing Thoughts and Market Predictions#StockMarket #Inflation #StagflationOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

24 Feb 1h 3min

You Can't Have Government Programs Without Waste, Fraud, and Abuse - Ep 1011

You Can't Have Government Programs Without Waste, Fraud, and Abuse - Ep 1011

Analysis of government efforts to eliminate wasteful spending and reduce national debt, examining past reforms, challenges, and future expectations. #Trump #Musk #DOGE📣 Shopify #ad - Sign up for a $1/month trial period at https://shopify.com/gold📣 #ad Mando: Control Body Odor ANYWHERE with Mando and get $5 off your Starter Pack (that’s over 40% off) with promo GOLD at https://shopmando.comIn this episode, Peter Schiff discusses the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), comparing it to Ronald Reagan's Grace Commission and deliberates on its ability to make budget cuts. He addresses issues such as waste, fraud, and abuse in government programs, highlighting problems like social security payouts to deceased individuals. Schiff emphasizes the inefficiency and abuse inherent in government operations and argues for the necessity of minimizing government size to reduce waste. He touches on the worsening debt-to-GDP ratio, the potential economic consequences of Donald Trump's policies, and the importance of purchasing gold and gold stocks amidst rising inflation and a weakening dollar. Finally, he contemplates the implications of a potential audit of the U.S. gold reserves in Fort Knox.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Introduction to the Podcast01:54 Historical Context: Reagan and Trump03:42 Doge's Current Role and Achievements04:26 Challenges and Limitations of Doge07:26 Social Security Fraud Issues12:26 Economic Struggles and Government Inefficiencies19:09 Government Programs: Inefficiency and Abuse23:45 Moral Hazard and Government Subsidies30:39 Impact of Fatherless Households31:27 Government's Role in Family Dynamics36:05 Statistics on Fatherless Households37:15 Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy44:22 Trump's Economic Claims48:08 Gold Reserves and Economic Implications55:48 Investment Opportunities in Gold01:00:35 Conclusion and Final ThoughtsOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

20 Feb 58min

Honor Washington's Birthday, the Father of Our Republic - Ep 1010

Honor Washington's Birthday, the Father of Our Republic - Ep 1010

Peter Schiff critiques 'Presidents' Day,' markets, inflation, economic data, gold, silver, and government's fiscal mismanagement.Put together your best look yet at https://indochino.com. Use code GOLD for 20% off orders of $499 or more.Peter Schiff opens the episode by discussing the misnomer of 'President's Day' and advocating for the correct recognition of Washington's Birthday. He explains the holiday's legal history and criticizes the commercialization of the day. Peter then transitions to recent economic data, including higher-than-expected producer and consumer price inflation (PPI and CPI) and disappointing retail sales. He argues that these numbers indicate rising inflation contrary to the Federal Reserve's targets. Schiff delves into recent gold and silver market movements, attributing fluctuations to economic reports and trader behavior. He advises listeners on investment strategies, emphasizing the purchase of physical metals ahead of potential tariffs. He also critiques U.S. government spending, highlighting surging interest payments on national debt and advocating for significant fiscal reforms, including reducing military expenditures and balancing the budget through substantial cuts. Schiff stresses the need for a shift from a consumption-based economy to a production-based one, suggesting that President Trump could enforce these changes by refusing to sign any debt ceiling increases.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:58 NFL Football and Sunday Night Podcasts01:23 Washington's Birthday vs. President's Day06:03 The Legacy of George Washington09:16 Republic vs. Democracy18:13 Economic Data and Market Reactions24:33 Silver and Gold Market Dynamics26:37 Gold Mining Stocks and Earnings30:48 Impact of Tariffs on Gold and Silver35:57 US Budget Deficit and Fiscal Policy41:03 Trump's Potential Role in Budget Cuts50:01 Conclusion and Investment Advice#EconomicData #GoldPrices #InflationOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Feb 50min

Powell Fiddles While Inflation Burns - 1009

Powell Fiddles While Inflation Burns - 1009

Gold reaches record highs, silver follows. Market reactions, inflation concerns, Fed's policies, and economic predictions.To get $100 towards your first bed purchase, go to https://thuma.co/goldPeter Schiff discusses the adverse day for inflation and the Federal Reserve but an excellent day for gold and gold stocks. Schiff critiques the Fed's premature halting of rate hikes, emphasizing how the latest CPI report exceeded expectations and its implications on future trends. He highlights the underreporting of these significant inflation figures by financial media and critiques Jerome Powell's stance on inflation during a House committee hearing. Additionally, Schiff underscores how the ongoing policies and political dynamics, including misplaced blame between parties, misrepresent the underlying economic issues. He also discusses the market reactions, including the stock and bond markets' movements, and delves deeper into the positive outlook for gold stocks, particularly with Barrick Gold's earnings exceeding expectations. Schiff concludes by encouraging investors to consider gold and gold stocks amidst the current economic trends.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Inflation Woes and Federal Reserve's Missteps02:44 Media's Downplay and Fed's Testimony03:40 Analyzing the Inflation Data09:17 Political Blame Game13:14 Critique of Media and Political Polarization17:42 Market Reactions and Predictions23:08 Gold and Gold Stocks Performance32:14 Market Optimism and Fund Performance33:46 Gold Fund's Promising Future34:13 Investment Advice and Risk Tolerance37:30 Commodity Prices and Inflation Concerns39:39 Tariffs and Economic Impact42:35 Federal Reserve and Congressional Hearings47:37 Debt Crisis and Economic Warnings52:42 Gold Revaluation and Inflation58:03 Final Investment Recommendations59:38 Closing Remarks and Call to Action#inflation #goldstocks #economicforecastOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Feb 56min

Stagflation: The Fed's Worst Nightmare Is Coming True - Ep 1008

Stagflation: The Fed's Worst Nightmare Is Coming True - Ep 1008

Gold reaches record highs amid market reactions, stalled tariffs, inflation concerns, Fed policies, and economic outlook.Download the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/goldPeter Schiff dives deep into the latest economic trends and market dynamics. He covers the surge in gold prices, reaching new record highs, and revisits the recently averted trade war involving U.S. tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. He criticizes the portrayal of tariffs as a tax on foreign countries, highlighting their impact on American consumers. Peter argues that Trump's strategy on tariffs shows a lack of conviction and discusses the broader implications of these policies on the stock market. Furthermore, Peter delves into the looming threat of stagflation, underscored by weak job growth and rising inflation expectations, while critiquing the Federal Reserve's lack of contingency plans for such a scenario. He also touches upon Japan's financial crisis potential and its possible repercussions for the U.S. economy. Lastly, Peter criticizes the idea of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund and emphasizes the importance of investing in gold amidst these economic uncertainties.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Introduction and Previous Podcast Recap01:29 Trade War Developments and Tariff Implications05:59 China's Retaliation and Economic Impact09:08 Tariffs vs. Income Taxes: A Critical Analysis15:39 Inflation and Economic Data Insights31:15 Inflation Expectations: Democrats vs. Republicans33:17 Gold's Reaction to Inflation News39:03 Consumer Credit and Economic Woes45:59 Japan's Financial Crisis and Global Impact49:47 The Sovereign Wealth Fund Debate57:22 Gold Investment Opportunities58:29 Conclusion and Final Thoughts#tradewar #goldprice #inflationOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

8 Feb 57min

Tariffs Harm Most the Nations That Impose Them - Ep 1007

Tariffs Harm Most the Nations That Impose Them - Ep 1007

Trump imposes tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. Market turmoil, stock drops, rising dollar, higher consumer prices, and economic impacts.Upgrade your wardrobe instantly and save 20% off with the code Peter at https://www.publicrec.com/Control Body Odor ANYWHERE with Mando and get $5 off your Starter Pack (that’s over 40% off) with promo GOLD at https://shopmando.comIn this episode, Peter Schiff breaks down the significant impact of Donald Trump's tariffs on the global markets and American consumers. Peter discusses the drastic fall in stock markets, with the Dow down nearly 600 points, and the surge in the dollar index. He explains how the tariffs are fundamentally taxes on Americans rather than on Mexican or Canadian businesses. Highlighting the effects on various sectors, particularly avocados and maple syrup imports, Peter underscores that the burden of these tariffs will ultimately fall on American consumers as prices rise across the board. He also delves into the broader economic implications, arguing that these tariffs could lead to higher consumer costs, weakened economic growth, and a potential recession. Throughout the episode, Peter emphasizes the shortsightedness of the belief that tariffs will benefit the U.S. economy and criticizes the lack of economic understanding among currency traders and the public.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Introduction and Market Impact of Trump's Tariffs02:10 Global Currency Reactions and Economic Misconceptions04:57 The Real Cost of Tariffs on American Consumers08:14 Avocado and Maple Syrup: Case Studies in Tariff Impact11:21 The Flawed Logic of Trade Wars15:11 Comparative Advantage and Trade Basics18:55 The Apple and Orange Farmer Analogy23:05 The Consequences of High Tariffs28:47 Potential Economic Collapse from Import Restrictions33:56 Impact of High Tariffs on America34:45 Global Repercussions of US Tariffs38:44 Economic Data and Consumer Spending40:57 Canadian Gold Mining Boom46:33 Consequences of Tariffs on Goods51:28 Gold and Silver Investment Tips58:44 Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Insights01:01:32 Final Thoughts and Recommendations#tariffs #tradewar #trumpOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

3 Feb 59min

Fed Ignores Data It Claims to Depend On - Ep 1006

Fed Ignores Data It Claims to Depend On - Ep 1006

Fed pauses rate cuts; market reactions, language tweaks on inflation, Trump's demand for rate cut, and crypto discussion.Download the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/goldPeter Schiff discusses the Federal Reserve's decision to pause rate cuts and its implications for the economy. He scrutinizes changes in the Fed's language on inflation and the market's reactions. Peter questions Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments and the Fed's accountability on inflation. He addresses President Trump's demands regarding rate cuts tied to oil prices, criticizes the Fed's stance on tariffs and policy impact, and highlights concerning economic data such as the merchandise trade deficit. Peter explores the historical context of tariffs, their impact on economic growth, and the potential consequences of current trade policies. He closes by emphasizing the persistent issues with the Fed's monetary policy and the inflationary pressures facing the economy.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com🟡 Schiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Fed Reserve's Rate Pause Announcement01:59 Market Reactions and Powell's Clarifications05:20 Trump's Influence and Fed's Response07:37 Fed's Stance on Tariffs and Policy Impact11:16 Monetary Policy and Inflation Concerns15:39 Powell's Q&A Session Highlights23:38 Crypto and Banking Regulations28:45 Bitcoin and Wealth Effect30:42 Economic Data and Trade Deficit33:58 Impact of Tariffs on Economy42:18 Historical Perspective on Tariffs54:20 Conclusion and Market UpdatesFederalReserve #InterestRates #StockMarketOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

30 Jan 52min

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