We Called GE Vernova Two Years Ago. Here Is What the Thesis Looks Like Now — And Whether to Keep Holding.

Two years ago, Nick called out GE Vernova when the profit margin was still near zero and the company had just been spun off from GE. The thesis was straightforward: free of the conglomerate, management could finally allocate capital productively, margins would expand, and the company would be perfectly positioned for the AI-driven build-out of the electric grid and data center power infrastructure.

That thesis has now fully played out. GE Vernova just reported Q1 2026 earnings — nearly $5 billion in free cash flow, raised revenue guidance to $44.5–45.5 billion, higher EBITDA and FCF margins, and an essentially debt-free balance sheet even after completing the Prolec acquisition in February.

In this excerpt from a Semi Insider live research session, Nick breaks down every number that matters: what drove the free cash flow surge, how to correctly read the Prolec accounting effects, why the unregulated data center power market is GEV's most important growth driver right now, and what the reverse DCF at current prices is actually telling investors. Not cheap. Not absurd. Closer to fair value than the deep discount it represented two years ago — but still a compelling hold if you already own it.

Nick also tackles the macro question head-on: is power really the bottleneck for the AI data center build-out? Jensen Huang said yes on the Dwarkesh podcast. Nick said essentially the same thing last November. The regulatory environment for utility companies, the unregulated opportunity in dedicated data center power generation, and the timeline reality of building power plants and expanding grids all factor into the answer.

What we cover:

— GEV Q1 2026: orders, backlog, revenue, and EBITDA all significantly up year over year

— Free cash flow of ~$5B — separating the Prolec accounting effect from the underlying business

— The Prolec acquisition: what GEV inherited and what it means for the balance sheet

— 2026 guidance raised: $44.5–45.5B revenue, higher margins across the board

— The unregulated data center power opportunity — why this changes GEV's growth profile

— Wind power: offshore still stalled, onshore orders starting to recover

— Reverse DCF at ~$1,100/share: 12% growth — our current verdict on valuation

— The Axon Enterprise connection and what the reindustrialization thesis really looks like

This is an excerpt from our Semi Insider live research session. Members get the full analysis, extended valuation discussion, and live Q&A on GEV and the rest of the energy infrastructure stack. Join at chipstockinvestor.com

Disclosure: Nick and Kasey are GE Vernova shareholders. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

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