Dan Niles: Be Nimble - 30-50% AI Crash By 2027

Legendary tech investor Dan Niles cautions investors to consider raising their cash ratings in this week’s episode of The Master Investor Podcast, just six weeks after he correctly called for a more aggressive risk-on approach at the end of March

While he still thinks today is more like 1997/98 than 2000 and that the shift from chat-based AI to Agentic AI will sustain major earnings upgrades for the rest of this year, he warns that tech stocks are overbought, Iran War risks persist, and the challenges that will hit the AI trade either way by year end.

SEMIS: “So in the short term, are semis at the most overbought they've been since 2000 or 1995 before they had horrific corrections? Absolutely.”

IRAN WAR: “If this is going to take a lot longer for this situation at the Strait of Hormuz to get sorted out, then you're going to see stock prices collapse to catch up with where bond yields and oil prices are. I don't think that's the case. But, I'm viewing things as you should be sitting with a lot of cash.”

MEGA CAP WINNER: “It's obviously Google. They have the full stack and they're the ones you should bet on. And unless something drastically changes, they will continue to be the winner going forward because they've got everything and they've got the massive cashflow to fund it.”

He also discusses what the shift to Agentic AI means for $NVDA (not ideal), Intel $INTC (great) and $AMD (good); why concerns over $META are NOT overdone; why $AAPL fortunes should improve; why $AMZN and $MSFT are struggling a bit short term, and why $GOOGL shines bright.

Recorded 11th May 2026

00.00 Intro

02.39 Why today feels like 1997/98, NOT 1999/2000

05.25 Agentic AI suggests more upside to bull market

07.52 But Iran War could derail things

11.18 Agentic AI means CPU’s over GPU’s

13.35 Semis are overbought

17.51 Is shift to CPUs bad for Nvidia?

19.13 Google the standout performer

21.15 Apple leadership transition

23.45 Meta concerns not overdone

25.37 Google best placed

27.36 30-50% AI crash by early 2027

30.01 Concerns about OpenAI

34.27 Upcoming IPOs, oil, bonds signal problems

36.16 Hold more cash

37.48 Kevin Warsh a positive, but watch bonds

43.34 Quantum computing

45.44 Conclusion:1998 or 1999?

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