Bull Case Holds for 2026 – Lori Calvasina

Lori Calvasina – Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets – has one of the highest SP500 forecasts on Wall St at 7900. In this episode of The Master Investor Podcast we explore why that is, and do a deep dive into the five key factors she considers when weighing up what her price target for the market should be. This is a rare window into the modelling strategy of one of Wall Street's most respected and closely followed US equity strategists, and a must-listen for anyone looking to understand what data points matter when analysing US equities.

Lori’s Five-Model Approach includes investor sentiment, cross-asset tests (stocks vs. bonds), valuation/earnings, GDP, and the Federal Reserve. At 23.6x PE she thinks the market is “not cheap” but “has room to run”, and is much more attractive that the 28x multiple reached last Summer/Fall. In particular, despite very strong performance in recent weeks she assesses investor sentiment to still be neutral. She discusses the irony that one of the most bullish SP500 targets on the Street only presents single-digit upside from here.

Wilf presses Lori as to whether the recent 9% peak to trough Iran War pullback was underdone. According to Lori, this was a rational move, because neither her nor the market is expecting a recession, justifying the relatively small pullback. She believes the covid pandemic and more recent tariffs have already taught many US companies an important lesson in establishing resilient supply chains, leaving them less vulnerable to more recent geopolitical developments. Lori also outlines why she likes Growth over Value, US over International, and Small Caps, but loves ‘AI Fast Lane’ Growth. Her and Wilf also cover the likely market impact from the Mid-Terms; of the new Fed Chair; and the upcoming slate of mega cap IPOs.

Recorded 14th May 2026

“0:00” Intro

“2:39” How to form an SP500 target

“5:09” New SP500 target of 7900

“7:24” Range of bull and bear case

“8:24” Where is sentiment?

“10:44” Energy, Materials and Tech growth rates stand out

“12:14” AI Fast Lane not impacted by Iran War

“15:29” Sector valuation multiples

“17:42” SP500 23.6x PE, and where that sits in recent range

“22:17” Stressing the target with big Iran War impact

“26:45” Lessons from Covid & Tariffs mean resilience for 2026 at least

“29:36” US/China and tariffs

“32:31” What will US Mid Terms mean for markets

“35:37” Fed outlook under Warsh

“37:19” Like small caps, love large cap growth

“39:52” US over International, despite valuation gap

“42:10” Growth over Value

“43:32” Pressure from summer IPOs?

“44:45” Conclusion – Not cheap, but room to run

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