SI402: Why Markets Can’t Stop Trending ft. Richard Brennan

What happens when markets stop behaving like machines and start behaving like living systems? In this episode, Richard Brennan joins Niels to explore passive investing, complex adaptive systems, volatility suppression, and the hidden forces reshaping modern market structure. From structured products and reflexive flows to demographics, trend following, and the fragile illusion of equilibrium, this conversation asks whether markets are becoming more unstable precisely because investors believe they have become safer. A thoughtful and layered discussion about why price discovery may be weakening, why trends persist, and why systematic strategies may be more relevant in a world increasingly shaped by feedback loops.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the episode and overview of today’s discussion

02:22 - Richard Brennan breaks down passive investing through the lens of complex adaptive systems

06:51 - What “complex adaptive systems” actually means in markets

14:53 - Why passive investing changes market structure without individual investors realizing it

24:06 - Niels discusses structured products, volatility suppression, and market fragility

29:23 - How demographic shifts could eventually reshape passive investing trends

35:37 - Trend following performance update and the TTU Trend Barometer

38:48 - Listener question on variance, volatility, and correlation in systematic trend following

42:04 - The “murmuration” analogy and why markets behave like flocks instead of machines

48:31 - Why equilibrium theory survives despite failing to explain real markets

51:17 - The endogenous engine of markets and the mechanics of reflexivity

57:47 - How trend followers align with the architecture of modern markets

01:03:12 - Why passive investing weakens balancing forces and strengthens trends

01:13:43 - The statistical evidence showing markets structurally trend over time

01:21:18 - Why trend following may become even more effective in the future

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2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

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