How AI is changing the natural gas industry

There are two great forces reshaping the world of energy today. The AI boom and the wave of investment in new data centres have sent power producers scrambling for generation capacity to meet soaring electricity demand. At the same time, the severe disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has put security of supply at the top of every importer's agenda. In this special episode, recorded at Wood Mackenzie's Gas, LNG and the Future of Energy Conference in London, host Ed Crooks speaks with three guests about what these twin pressures mean for gas. They discuss demand for gas for power, the sources of supply that could provide energy security in volatile times, and plans for tackling the increased greenhouse gas emissions that could result from increased consumption.

First, Ed sits down with Neal Kalita, senior director of global energy management at NTT Global Data Centers, one of the world’s largest data center developers. Neal explains why "speed to power" is a priority, and why gas plays such a key role in providing the reliable 24/7 firm capacity hyperscaler clients require.

Relying on gas as a key component of the power generation mix means managing a complex set of issues around supply security, demand management and long-term investment. Neal explains how NTT thinks about commodity risk, the trade-offs involved in power supply agreements, and why on-site gas generation may be not just a bridge solution but long-term infrastructure for the electricity system. He highlights the key drivers that are changing the data centre industry, including rising GPU power density, AI-driven volatility in load, and climate-related grid reliability concerns. He also discusses NTT's participation in a demand response programme run by Voltus, which helped stabilise the grid when Winter Storm Fern hit Virginia in January.

Next, Ed hears from Keith Shoemaker, Chief Commercial Officer at Coastal Bend, which is developing a new LNG liquefaction project at Corpus Christi, Texas. Coastal Bend is aiming to have the first project in the US to integrate carbon capture and sequestration into its design. Combined with the procurement of upstream gas with low methane leakage and flaring, that should make for the lowest carbon-intensity LNG in the world, Keith says.

Crucially, the project can match competitor prices without charging a green premium. The US 45Q tax credit will cover the operational spending (Opex) for the transport and sequestration of the carbon, and costs will be kept down by using brownfield maritime infrastructure that is already in place. Regulation will still be essential in creating a market for lower-emissions LNG. Keith sets out an idea for making that work in the EU: linking the new Methane Emissions Regulation with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to create an "avoided carbon" currency that LNG importers could use to offset CBAM fees on other products such as cement, steel and fertiliser. That way, the methane regulation would change from a stick to a carrot for the LNG industry.

Kristy Kramer, Head of LNG at Wood Mackenzie, closes the episode by assessing how the three trends of AI demand, energy security and decarbonisation fit together. She discusses the big question: has the conflict on the Middle East changed the world completely, forever. It may play out like the Covid pandemic. Huge changes were predicted, and although there were some permanent impacts, in other areas the world has gone back to the way it was before. Politics will change from week to week, or even from hour to hour, but geology and economics don’t, and over time the fundamentals will reassert themselves. Kristy and Ed reflect on what that means for the future of energy.

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